2. Political socialization: the process of learning and forming opinions about politics Agents of political socialization (Welch, pp. 76-81) Family School Peers Media Adult experience

3.  An organized set of opinions and beliefs that contribute to a coherent political outlook  Maddox and Lilie’s categories of ideology  Government intervention on social issues  Government intervention on economic issues  Pro-economic intervention, anti-social intervention:  Liberal  Pro-both types of intervention  Populist  Anti-both types of intervention  Libertarian  Pro-social intervention, anti-economic intervention:  Conservative

4.  Random sampling (scientifically accurate surveys must involve random sampling of the population)  No self-selection; this would only involve people with strongly held views on the issue, who make the effort to make their views known. They may not be mathematically representative of the population as a whole.

5.  Also known as sampling error  A mathematical measure of the accuracy of a poll, expressed as +/- a certain percentage. This means there is a 95% probability that, if the entire population were surveyed, the results would be within x% of the poll results.

6.  Example: Winthrop Poll, October 2014  Governor of South Carolina  Nikki Haley leads Vincent Sheheen 43.6% to 33.6%, with 12.4% undecided and a 3% margin of error.  There is a 95% probability that Haley’s actual margin is 40.6% to 46.6%.  There is a 95% probability that Sheheen’s actual margin is 30.6% to 36.6%  There is a 95% probability that Haley has AT LEAST 40.6%.  There is a 95% probability that Sheheen has NO MORE THAN 36.6%.  The poll can thus predict that there is a 95% probability that Haley leads Sheheen by at least four points, and possibly as much as 16.  The actual election result was Haley 56%, Sheheen 41%. This means that more undecided voters ended up voting for Haley than for Sheheen.

7.  If the difference between the two candidates is smaller than the margin of error, the race is too close to call.  Harper Poll, October 2014: North Carolina Senate  Thom Tillis (R) 48%  Kay Hagan (D) 45%  Margin of error 4.3%  Tillis could have AS LITTLE AS 43.7%.  Hagan could have AS MUCH AS 49.3%.  This poll cannot predict the winner.  Tillis won 48.8%-47.3%.

8.  Tracking poll  A poll taken repeatedly in the days before an election to compare the candidates’ performance from day to day  “Haley is widening her lead over Sheheen” means that her performance in a poll is better than her performance in a previous poll.  Exit poll  Taken outside polling places after people have voted on Election Day. A random sample of voters are chosen to project a winner even before the votes are counted.  Does not include people who vote absentee by mail.  Improperly constructed model in Florida 2000 Presidential race led to mistaken predictions and confusion.

9.  What do Welch and her co-authors argue are the real and perceived biases of the media? (Ch. 5)  How the media have evolved historically  Newspapers were originally founded as partisan vehicles but developed into objective mass media  Radio and television served to give people the same information at the same time  The Internet and the proliferation of cable news channels means we get our news from different sources (people who watch Fox News or read conservative Websites believe different things than people who watch MSNBC or read liberal Websites)  What difference does it make?  Harder to reach agreement on facts, let alone opinions  Makes political dialogue more argumentative and negative

10.  Madison’s “factions” were groups with a common interest that sought to promote that interest at the expense of the public interest  Contemporary examples: interest groups, economic classes, political parties  Public interest vs. private interest group: public seeks benefits for whole of society, private only for themselves  Exclusive vs. non-exclusive benefits: you have to join the group to get exclusive benefits, but you don’t have to join to get non-exclusive benefits

11.  “Free rider” problem: Economist Mancur Olson argues that public interest groups/non- exclusive benefit groups have difficult recruiting members because there’s no incentive to join if you get the benefits anyway  Required for interest group activity: organization, leadership, identifiable membership, means of communication  This takes money. E.E. Schattschneider argues that this gives what he called the “pressure group system” an upper-class bias

12.  Activities: lobbying, mobilization, campaign contributions  Direct lobbying: Contacting decision makers directly to express their views  Indirect lobbying: Having the membership contact the decision makers  Mobilization: Communicating with the membership to encourage them to do something  Campaign contributions: Interest groups make contributions to candidates in the form of political action committees (PACs) or SuperPACs. PACs are subject to contribution limits in federal elections but SuperPACs can spend as much as they want if it’s not coordinated with the candidate.  Independent campaign expenditures from groups like “Americans for Prosperity” or “Crossroads GPS”