1. 1 Jorund Buen Partner/Director, Point Carbon UNFCCC Technical Workshop on Joint Implementation 10 March 2006 Early mover JI projects

2. 2 Outline Methodological issues Overview of JI activities so far – Projects – Forward transactions Assessment of impact of EU directives on JI

3. 3 How do we gather & check info? Web searches: UNFCCC, hosts, investors, project developers, targeted general search Mailinglists (climate-l etc) Conference material etc Regular contact with host & investor country DNAs, key third parties, project developers, exchanges, brokers, service providers Interaction with high-end clients Calling project proponents to check status

4. 4 What is counted as a PDD? Latest version available physically in Point Carbon’s database, or A project that has met a set of authoritiative criteria of which a PDD forms part, and Not cancelled JI PDDs: Count pre-2008 AAUs

5. 5 Sources of uncertainty: Examples In the direction of underestimation: – Some players don’t share info on new projects or transactions – Some early movers might want see JISC rules before submitting – Volumes lacking for some early-stage projects In the direction of overestimation: – Parties might not share info on cancelled/changed projects/transactions – EU ETS & double counting – Project proponents don’t risk-adjust their projects – Lack of capacity to monitor possible delays and cancellations

6. 6 Overview of JI activities # Projects/ transactions Total volume -2012 (MtCO2e) Projects (total)515268 Projects (PDD)189140 Transactions8263,7

7. 7 Overview: JI pipeline

8. 8 JI projects - host country (#)

9. 9 JI projects - host country (MtCO2e)

10. 10 JI project types (#)

11. 11 JI project types (PDDs, ktCO2e)

12. 12 CDM project types (PDDs, ktCO2e)

13. 13 JI projects: PDD vs (pre)determination

14. 14 Forward JI contracts: Host country (MtCO2e)

15. 15 Forward JI contracts per year

16. 16 Investor countries: Contracts

17. 17 JI and EU legislation ProjectSectors2005-072008-12Impact of EU legislation ETS Trading Sector e.g. Biomass fuel switch Combustion Oil refineries Metal Mineral Pulp and paper EUAs – through the ETS EUAs / ERUs through JI project Thermal input > 20 MW: ERUs deducted from operator’s EUA account Thermal output > 50 MW: Possible change of baseline (LCP Directive) Non ETS project e.g. Wind Farm e.g. Landfill Project Connected to grid - Renewables - Demand- side en. effic. AAUs - Early credits ERUs through a JI project No impact if host country has reserve fund; ERUs deducted from national registry No influence from Acquis Not covered by EU ETS, not grid- connected AAUs – Early credits ERUs through a JI project No influence from linking directive. Change of baseline to 1 May 2012, at earliest Enlarged ETS e.g. Chemical Facility (N 2 O) AAUs – Early credits ERUs /EUAs through JI project ERUs deducted from national registry Possible change in 2008-12

18. 18 EU directives & deadlines

19. 19 Conclusions Considerable early mover activity – Project development – Forward transactions Buyers almost exclusively government & multilateral Host countries: Romania, Bulgaria & EU25 – Russia, Ukraine (and Poland) emerging Investor countries: Dutch domination, others absent Large portion of early mover projects have been (pre)determined Linking directive and other EU directives combined may reduce projected ERU volume considerably

20. 20 Email: jb@pointcarbon.com Direct tel.: +47 932 83 350 Thank you