1. PENSION REFORMS AND LONG-TERM SUSTAINABILITY OF PUBLIC FINANCES IN THE CENTRAL EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES dr Kamila Bielawska Uniwersytet Gdański

2. Plan of the presentation 1.Ageing and fiscal sustainability on the EU’s agenda 2. Pension reforms and re-reforms as the reaction to the crisis 3. Projections of pension expenditures based on ageing reports 4. Assessment of fiscal sustainability

3. Ageing and fiscal sustainability on the EU’s agenda 1.Establishment of the Ageing Working Group of the Economic Policy Committee in 1999 2.The EU summit in Stockholm in 2001 3.Every three years since 2006 reports covering the issue of impact of ageing on public finances are published 4.Long-term stability of public finances became a part of MSs’ stability or convergence programs (SCPs's) presented annually to the European Commission and ECOFIN Council

4. Pension reforms and re-reforms 2008-2014 CountryChanges in the mandatory pension systems Increase in the retirement age Restrictions on early retirement Less generous indexation of pensions Hungaryvv Polandvv Slovakiavv Estoniav Latviav Lithuaniav Romaniav Bulgariavvv

5. Changes to the 2nd pillar of pension systems Reversals BulgariaNo change Estonia Temporary reduction with off-set. 6% contribution rate cut to 0% between June 2009 and January 2011 and shifted to PAYG. Gradual increase from 2011. Rate set at 3% in January 2011 and 6% in January 2012. In 2014-2017 at 8% to offset missed contributions Latvia Partial reduction 8% contribution rate reduced to 2% in May 2009. Rates increased to 4% from 2013 Lithuania Partial reduction. 5.5% contribution rate reduced to 2% in July 2009. Rates further lowered to 1.5% in January 2012 and 2.5% in 2013. Change to 3% (2%+ 1%) January 2014, voluntary participation. Additional contribution at 2% in 2016-2019. Hungary Permanent reversal Contribution rate reduced to 0% in January 2011 assets transferred to the mandatory PAYG system. Poland Permanent reduction and partial reversal Contribution rate reduced to 2.3% in May 2011. From February 2014 contribution at 2.92%, in February 2014 assets invested in government bonds transferred to PAYG scheme and redeemed. In 2014 system made opt-out and opt-in in specified time slots. Assets from FF transferred gradually to PAYG 10 years prior to retirement. Romania Temporary reduction Reduction in planned growth path of contribution rate from 2% to 6%. Rate froze at 2%, started to increase from 2011 at annual rate of 0,5pp. Slovakia Permanent reduction 9% contribution reduced to 4% in 2013, expected to rise to 6% in 2024. Funded scheme opt-out and opt-in system.

6. Projections of public pension spending in 2012 Ageing Report

7. Projections of pension expenditures based on 2015 Ageing Report

8. Decomposition of pension expenditures change over 2013-2060 Source: [The 2015 Ageing Report, p. 117] Country 2013 Level Dependency ratio contri- bution Coverage ratio contribution Benefit ratio contribution Labour market effect Interaction effect 2060 Level BG9.96.7-3.1-2.5-1.2-0.39.4 EE7.65.4-2.0-3.8-0.5-0.46.3 LV7.73.8-1.4-4.5-0.8-0.34.6 LT7.24.3-2.2-0.9-0.6-0.47.5 HU11.57.8-3.5-1.9 0.511.4 PL11.312.4-5.2 -1.4-1.210.7 RO8.26.8-2.3-4.00.0-0.68.1 SK8.111.3-4.2-2.6-1.310.2 UE11.37.2-2.6-3.0-1.4-0.411.1

9. Fiscal sustainability assessment IndicatorMeaning Interpretation of values S1 – Medium-term sustainability indicator (up to 2030) Shows the upfront adjustment effort required, in terms of steady improvement in the structural primary balance to be introduced until 2020, and then sustained for a decade, to bring debt ratios back to 60% of GDP in 2030, including financing for any additional expenditure until the target date, arising from an ageing population S1 < 0 – low risk 0 < S1 < 3 – medium risk S1 > 3 – high risk S2 – Long-term sustainability indicator (indefinite horizon) Shows the adjustment to the current structural primary balance required to fulfil the infinite horizon inter-temporal budget constraint, including paying for any additional expenditure arising from an ageing population. S2 < 2 – low risk 2 < S2 < 6 – medium risk S2 > 6 – high risk Source: own based on [Fiscal Sustainability Report 2012]

10. Components of S1 and S2 indicators Indicator / components Required adjustment given the initiary budgetary position(IBP) Required adjustment to reach debt to GDP ratio of 60% in 2030 (DR) Required adjustment due to cost of ageing (CoA) S1 =Gap to debt-stabilizing primary balance in 2020 through a steady gradual adjustment +Additional adjustment required to reach a debt target of 60% of GDP in 2030 +Additional adjustment required to finance the increase in public expenditure due to ageing population up to 2030 S2 =Gap to debt-stabilizing primary balance +0+Additional adjustment required to finance the increase in public expenditure due to ageing population over an infinite horizon

11. S1 values and its components for the CEE countries CountryRiskS1IBPDRCoA Bulgarialow-1.5-0.1-2.3 0.8 Estonialow-3.4-0.4-3.0 0.2 Latvialow-2.0-0.3-0.9-0.8 Lithuaniamedium 0.3 0.8-1.1 0.7 Hungarylow-0.4-0.2 0.9-1.3 Polandmedium 0.1-0.3-0.2 0.6 Romanialow-1.4-0.4-1.4 0.4 Slovakiamedium 2.2 1.1-0.2 1.3 EU 27x 1.8-0.4 1.7 0.4 Source: 2012 Fiscal Sustainability Report

12. S2 values and its components for the CEE countries CountryRiskS2IBP LTC (long-term cost of ageing): of which change in pension expenditures Bulgariamedium 2.80.5 2.3 1.6 Estonialow 1.20.5 0.7-0.1 Latvialow-0.70.7-1.5-1.4 Lithuaniamedium 4.70.9 3.8 3.0 Hungarylow 0.50.1 0.3-0.2 Polandlow 1.50.4 1.1-0.6 Romaniamedium 3.70.1 3.6 2.4 Slovakiahigh 6.91.8 5.1 3.5 EU27x 2.60.5 2.2 1.1 2012 Fiscal Sustainability Report

13. Fiscal stability of CEE countries according to the preliminary forecasts of the 2014 CountryMedium-term riskS1Long-term riskS2 BulgariaLow-1.2Medium 3.4 EstoniaLow-2.8Low 0.1 LatviaLow-2.4Low-0.1 LithuaniaMedium -> lowMedium 3.1 HungaryLow-0.8Low 0.6 Polandmedium -> low0.2Low-0.8 RomaniaLow-0.5Medium 4.4 Slovakiamedium -> low-0.1High ->medium 4.3 Source: Identifying fiscal sustainability challenges in the areas of pension, health care and long-term care policies, European Economy, Occasional Papers 201, October 2014.

14. Conclusions Parametric and structural reforms of the pension systems in the CEE countries increased the medium and long term sustainability of public finance measured by S1 and S2 indicators However the increase of future pension expenditures due to the acquisition of all or a part of old-age contribution from funded pillar will emerge in the years beyond the forecast horizon

15. Thank you for your attention