1. 1 Environmental Services Training Group LOCAL AUTHORITY ENVIRONMENT CONFERENCE 2015 Protecting Our Environment Hodson Bay Hotel, Athlone, May 2015.

2. Protecting Our Environment Climate Change Implications for Ireland Frank McGovern Senior Manager Environmental Protection Agency

3. Content n The issues n Drivers of climate change n Current and projected changes nResponse options nPathways to a 2C World

4. The energy imbalance cause by human and natural activities Expressed as extra energy per square meter. Total 2.29 W m -2 GHGs alone 2.83 W m -2 It Additional energy/Radiative Forcing

5. More than 90% of the excess energy has been stored in the ocean Melting of ice (glaciers) and up-take by land accounts for most of the remaining energy The Ocean has also taken up about 30% of the excess carbon dioxide Where is the energy going?

6. Observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia Surface temperature increase 0.85C since 1880s, ice cover has reduced and sea level has risen Changes in rainfall patterns and melting of snow and ice have had adverse impacts on water resources The impacts are most evident in the natural world; many terrestrial which are moving to cooler regions and some extinctions have occurred Food production has been negatively impacted with reduced maize and wheat yields. Some positive impacts, in some regions, for some crops Some observed changes

7. GHG Emissions [GtCO 2 eq/yr] GHG emissions since 1970

8. Sources of emissions in 2010 es of emissions Energy production remains the primary driver of GHG emissions 35% 24% 21% 14% 6.4% Energy Sector Agriculture, forests and other land uses Industry Transport Building Sector AR5 WGIII SPM

9. The main CO2 sources

10. Impacts are already happening Tropics to the poles On all continents and in the oceans Affecting rich and poor countries

11. Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in the climate system Global glacier volume will further decrease Global mean sea level will continue to rise during this century It is very likely that the Arctic sea ice cover will continue to shrink and thin as global mean surface temperature rises Oceans will continue to warm throughout this century Projections of future climate

12. Potential Impacts of Climate Change Food and water shortages Increased poverty Increased displacement of people Coastal flooding

13. The Future: possible pathways Sea level rise 2100 relative to 2010, Low emissions 26 - 55cm, High emissions 45 – 82cm

14. 2˚C

15. The window for action is limited 65% of our carbon budget compatible with a 2°C goal already used Amount Used 1870-2011: 515 GtC Amount Remaining: 275 GtC Total Carbon Budget: 790 GtC AR5 WGI SPM

16. Stabilization of the climate system ~ 3°C Based on Figure 6.7 AR5 WGIII SPM

17. Mitigation options More efficient use of energy Greater use of low-carbon and no-carbon energy Many of these technologies exist today Improved food production and carbon sinks Reduced deforestation and improved forest management and planting of new forests Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage Lifestyle and behaviour changes AR5 WGIII SPM

18. Limiting the Global temperature Increase to 2˚C To have a likely chance (66%) of keeping the global temperature increase to below 2°C requires global GHG emissions to be  Reduced by between 40% and 70% relative to 2010 levels by 2050  and be near or below zero by 2100 Higher emissions to 2050 implies more reliance on negative emissions in the 2nd half of the century. This is a high risk approach due the availability, and scale, of technologies to achieve this are uncertain.

19. Ambitious Mitigation is Affordable ➜ Economic growth reduced by ~ 0.06% (BAU growth 1.6 - 3%) ➜ This translates into delayed and not forgone growth ➜ Estimated cost does not account for the benefits of reduced climate change ➜ Unmitigated climate change would create increasing risks to economic growth

20. The choices we make now will determine the level of future risks Substantial and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are needed to reduce climate change related risks Full de-carbonisation of energy and sustainable land and biomass management are key parts of this Adaptation to reduce the adverse impacts of on-going and unavoidable climate change A risk based approach can assist in adaptation planning Addressing current vulnerability/exposure is first step in adaptation Responses

21. Conclusions nThe human influence on the climate system is clear nThe more we disrupt our climate, the more we risk severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts nWe have the means to limit climate change and build a more prosperous, sustainable future nEffective policies and technologies are central to the required transformation

22. Thank you