1. Macroeconomics ECON 2301 Spring 2009 Marilyn Spencer, Ph.D. Professor of Economics Chapter 16

2. Announcement: Extra Credit Opportunity #1 4 Attend the panel discussion, "The new New Deal: The ins and outs of the Bailout,“ Tuesday, April 28, 2009, 7 p.m. in the University Center Ballroom. 4 To earn up to 4 points of extra credit, email me your summary, in 50-100 words, before the start of class on Tues., May 5.

3. Announcement: Extra Credit Opportunity #2 4 The Federal Open Market Committee will hold its next meeting April 28-29. 4 To earn up to 4 points of extra credit: ÜOn or around April 29, read or listen to a news story that summarizes the most important outcomes of their meeting. ÜEmail me your summary of that news story, in 50-100 words, before the start of class on Tues., May 5.

4. Chapter 16: Money Creation & Deposit Insurance

5. 16-5 Learning Objectives 4 Describe how the Federal Reserve assesses reserve requirements on banks and other depository institutions 4 Understand why the money supply is unaffected when someone deposits in a depository institution funds transferred from a transactions account at a another depository institution 4 Explain why the money supply changes when someone deposits in a depository institution funds transferred from the Federal Reserve System

6. 16-6 Learning Objectives (cont'd) 4 Determine the maximum potential extent to which the money supply will change following a Federal Reserve purchase or sale of government securities 4 Discuss the ways in which the Federal Reserve conducts monetary policy 4 Explain the essential features of federal deposit insurance

7. 16-7 Did You Know That… 4 Through actions initiated by a central bank such as the Federal Reserve, depository institutions together create money? 4 In this chapter, we shall examine the money multiplier process, which explains how an injection of new money into the banking system leads to an eventual multiple expansion in the total money supply.

8. 16-8 Links Between Changes in the Money Supply and Other Economic Variables 4 There are links between changes in the money supply and changes in GDP. 4 There are links between changes in the money supply and the rate of inflation.

9. 16-9 Figure 16-1 Money Supply Growth versus the Inflation Rate

10. 16-10 Links Between Changes in the Money Supply and Other Economic Variables (cont'd) 4 Fractional Reserve Banking ÜA system in which depository institutions hold reserves that are less than the amount of deposits Originated when goldsmiths issued notes that exceeded the value of gold and silver on hand

11. 16-11 Depository Institution Reserves (cont'd) 4 In a fractional reserve banking system, banks do not keep sufficient reserves on hand to cover 100% of their depositors' accounts. 4 There are three distinguishable types of reserves: legal, required and excess.

12. 16-12 Depository Institution Reserves (cont'd) 4 Reserves ÜIn the U.S. Federal Reserve System, deposits held by Federal Reserve district banks for depository institutions, plus depository institutions’ vault cash 4 Legal Reserves ÜAnything that the law permits banks to claim as reserves—for example, deposits held at Federal Reserve district banks and vault cash 4 Required Reserves ÜThe value of reserves that a depository institution must hold in the form of vault cash or deposits with the Fed

13. 16-13 Depository Institution Reserves (cont'd) 4 Question ÜDo banks set their own reserve rate? 4 Answer ÜNo, the Federal Reserve sets the reserve requirement Currently it is 10% on most transactions deposits

14. 16-14 Depository Institution Reserves (cont'd) 4 Required Reserve Ratio ÜThe percentage of total transactions deposits that the Fed requires depository institutions to hold in the form of vault cash or deposits with the Fed Required reserves = Transactions deposits  Required reserve ratio

15. 16-15 Depository Institution Reserves (cont'd) 4 Excess Reserves ÜThe difference between legal reserves and required reserves ÜExcess reserves = Legal reserves – Required reserves

16. 16-16 The Relationship Between Legal Reserves and Total Deposits 4 Balance Sheet ÜStatements of assets (what is owned) and liabilities (what is owed) 4 How a single bank reacts to an increase in reserves ÜWe will examine the balance sheet of a single bank. 4 Net Worth ÜThe difference between assets and liabilities

17. 16-17 The Relationship Between Legal Reserves and Total Deposits (cont'd) 4 We assume 1.Reserve ratio is 10% 2.Transactions deposits are the bank’s only liabilities and loans are the bank’s assets 3.An individual bank can lend as much as legally allowed 4.Every time a loan is made, the proceeds are put into a deposit account (nothing withdrawn) 5.Zero excess reserves are kept 6.Banks have zero net worth

18. 16-18 The Relationship Between Legal Reserves and Total Deposits (cont'd) Description of a Balance Sheet AssetsLiabilities What is owned Reserves Loans What is owed Deposits ÜNet Worth = Assets – Liabilities

19. 16-19 Reserve Ratio = 10% Balance Sheet 16-1 Typical Bank

20. 16-20 The Relationship Between Legal Reserves and Total Deposits (cont'd) AssetsLiabilities Balance Sheet: Typical Bank Assume a depositor deposits in Typical Bank a $100,000 debit-card payment drawn on a transactions account at another depository institution.

21. 16-21 Transactions deposits in Typical Bank immediately increase by $100,000, bringing the total to $1.1 million. Balance Sheet 16-2 Typical Bank

22. 16-22 Required reserves =.10  $1,100,000 = $110,000 Excess reserves = $200,000 – $110,000 = $90,000 The Relationship Between Legal Reserves and Total Deposits (cont'd) 4 Following the deposit ÜWhat are the required reserves of Typical Bank? ÜDoes Typical Bank have excess reserves?

23. 16-23 Balance Sheet 16-2 Typical Bank (cont'd) Typical Bank has: required reserves of $110,000 and excess reserves of $90,000.

24. 16-24 The Relationship Between Legal Reserves and Total Deposits (cont'd) 4 Following the deposit ÜWhat will Typical Bank do with its excess reserves? Loan them out ÜCould Typical Bank safely loan out more than its excess reserves? By law holds a certain amount of required reserves

25. 16-25 Typical Bank lends $90,000, but the borrowers do not leave this amount on deposit at Typical Bank. Balance Sheet 16-3 Typical Bank

26. Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison Wesley. All rights reserved.16-26 The Relationship Between Legal Reserves and Total Deposits (cont'd) 4 What do you think? ÜDid this loan expand the money supply? 4 Hints ÜHave the reserves of the banking system changed? ÜWhat happened to the loan balance at the bank where the deposit came from?

27. 16-27 The Relationship Between Legal Reserves and Total Deposits (cont'd) 4 Effect on the money supply ÜNew reserves for the banking system as a whole are not created when debit-card or check payments are transferred from one bank and deposited in another bank. ÜThe Federal Reserve System can however, create new reserves—the subject of our next section.

28. 16-28 The Fed’s Direct Effect on the Overall Level of Reserves 4 The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ÜCan instruct the New York Federal Reserve Bank trading desk to buy or sell bonds 4 Open Market Operations ÜThe purchase and sale of existing U.S. government securities (such as bonds) in the open private market by the Federal Reserve System

29. 16-29 The Fed buys $100,000 of U.S. government securities. Balance Sheet 16-4

30. 16-30 The reserves and the money supply increase by $100,000. Balance Sheet 16-4

31. 16-31 Now the Fed sells $100,000 of U.S. government securities. Balance Sheet 16-5

32. 16-32 The bank’s reserves and money supply both fall by $100,000. The Fed’s Direct Effect on the Overall Level of Reserves (cont'd)

33. 16-33 Money Expansion by the Banking System 4 Consider the entire banking system; for practical purposes, we can look at all depository institutions taken as a whole. 4 To understand how money is created, we must understand how depository institutions respond to Fed actions that increase reserves in the entire system.

34. 16-34 This shows Bank 1’s original position before the Fed’s purchase of a $100,000 U.S. government security. Balance Sheet 16-6 Bank 1

35. 16-35 Fed transfers $100,000 to Bank 1 immediately increasing the money supply by the same amount. Bank 1 has excess reserves of $90,000. Balance Sheet 16-7 Bank 1

36. 16-36 Figure 16-8 shows Bank 1 expands its loans by $90,000. Balance Sheet 16-8 Bank 1

37. 16-37 The borrower deposits $90,000 in Bank 2, and Bank 2 now has money to lend out. Balance Sheet 16-9 Bank 2 (Changes Only)

38. 16-38 Bank 2 makes a loan for $81,000, the amount of its excess reserves. Balance Sheet 16-10 Bank 2 (Changes Only)

39. 16-39 Money Expansion by the Banking System (cont'd) 4 Recall ÜThe Fed bought a bond and deposited it at Bank 1, immediately increasing the money supply by $100,000. ÜThe deposit creation process (in addition to the $100,000) occurs because of the fractional reserve banking system. ÜBanks will lend out any excess reserves as they can earn interest income on new loans.

40. 16-40 Assume the firm borrowing $81,000 from Bank 2 spends these funds, which are deposited in Bank 3. Balance Sheet 16-11 Bank 3 (Changes Only)

41. 16-41 We assume Bank 3 will want to lend all of those non-interest-earning assets (excess reserves of $72,900). Balance Sheet 16-12 Bank 3 (Changes Only)

42. 16-42 E-Commerce Example: Remote Capture Speeds the Check Clearing Process 4 Traditional check-clearing typically takes one to three days to complete. 4 Internet based institutions pioneered a concept called remote capture. 4 Remote capture cuts the time to just an hour.

43. 16-43 Money Expansion by the Banking System (cont'd) 4 Question ÜLooking over our balance sheets, how much do you think the money supply increased after the Fed’s $100,000 purchase of government securities and the three bank loans?

44. 16-44 Money Expansion by the Banking System (cont'd) What do you think? Could Banks 4, 5, 6, etc. create even more money? How much can be created? $100,000Purchase by the Fed 90,000Loan by Bank 1 81,000Loan by Bank 2 72,900Loan by Bank 3 $343,900Total

45. 16-45 Table 16-1 Maximum Money Creation with 10 Percent Required Reserves

46. 16-46 Figure 16-2 The Multiple Expansion in the Money Supply Due to $100,000 in New Reserves When the Required Reserve Ratio Is 10 Percent

47. 16-47 Money Expansion by the Banking System (cont'd) 4 Only when additional new reserves and deposits are created by the Federal Reserve System does the money supply increase. 4 The reverse process occurs when there is a decrease in reserves because the Fed sells $100,000 in government securities.

48. 16-48 The Money Multiplier 4 Money Multiplier ÜGives the maximum potential change in the money supply due to a change in reserves Actual  in money supply = Actual money multiplier  in total reserves  Potential money multiplier = 1 Required reserve ratio

49. 16-49 The Money Multiplier (cont'd) 4 Example ÜFed buys $100,000 of government securities ÜReserve ratio = 10% Potential change in the money supply = $100,000 = $1,000,000 x 1.10

50. 16-50 The Money Multiplier (cont'd) 4 Forces that reduce the money multiplier ÜLeakages Currency drains Excess reserves 4 Real-world money multipliers ÜM1 multiplier = 2.5–3.0 ÜM2 multiplier = 6.5 in the 1960s to over 12 in the 2000s

51. 16-51 Ways in Which the Federal Reserve Changes the Money Supply 1. Open market operations 2. Reserve requirement 3. Discount rate

52. 16-52 Ways in Which the Federal Reserve Changes the Money Supply (cont'd) 4 Discount Rate ÜThe interest rate that the Federal Reserve charges for reserves it lends to depository institutions 4 Federal Funds Market ÜA private market in which banks can borrow reserves from other banks that want to lend them 4 Federal Funds Rate ÜThe interest rate that depository institutions pay to borrow reserves in the interbank federal funds market

53. 16-53 Ways in Which the Federal Reserve Changes the Money Supply (cont'd) 4 Today’s discount rate policy is to set discount rate above the federal funds rate. 4 Question ÜWhy would the Fed do this?

54. 16-54 Ways in Which the Federal Reserve Changes the Money Supply (cont'd) 4 Question ÜWhat if the Fed changes reserve requirements it imposes? ÜWhat if reserve requirements go from 10% to 20%? 4 Answer ÜThen the money multiplier changes from 10 to 5.

55. 16-55 Table 16-2 Required Reserve Ratios in Selected Nations

56. 16-56 Sweep Accounts and the Decreased Relevance of Reserve Requirements 4 Many banks offer automatic transfer accounts, in which savings account balances are transferred to demand deposit accounts only when needed. 4 This feature allows banks to hold fewer reserves as savings deposits are exempt from reserve requirements. 4 Sweep Account ÜA depository institution account that entails regular shifts of funds from transactions deposits that are subject to reserve requirements to savings deposits that are exempt from reserve requirements

57. 16-57 Sweep Accounts and the Decreased Relevance of Reserve Requirements (cont'd) 4 Banks use sweep accounts to shift funds from checking accounts into savings accounts until they are needed to settle check payments. 4 Consequently, more of money supply growth has been shifted to M2, and M1 is considered a less reliable indicator of total liquidity.

58. 16-58 Federal Deposit Insurance 4 When businesses fail, they create hardships for creditors, owners and customers. 4 When a depository institution fails even greater hardship results as many individuals and businesses depend on the safety and security of banks. 4 Bank Runs ÜAttempts by many of a bank’s depositors to convert transactions and time deposits into currency out of fear that the bank’s liabilities may exceed its assets

59. 16-59 ÜSource: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Figure 16-4 Bank Failures

60. 16-60 Federal Deposit Insurance (cont’d) 4 Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) ÜA government agency that insures the deposits held in banks and most other depository institutions; all U.S. banks are insured this way. 4 How deposit insurance causes increased risk taking by bank managers ÜLack of correlation between risk taking and insurance premiums.

61. 16-61 Federal Deposit Insurance (cont'd) 4 Deposit insurance, adverse selection, and moral hazard ÜAdverse selection arises when there is asymmetric information. Information possessed by one side of a transaction but not the other The side with more information will be at an advantage.

62. 16-62 Federal Deposit Insurance (cont'd) 4 Deposit insurance, adverse selection, and moral hazard ÜMoral hazard arises as a result of information asymmetry after a transaction has occurred. 4 The results of moral hazard ÜThe S&L crisis of the mid-1980s More than 1,500 savings and loan associations failed. The estimated taxpayer cost was $200 billion.

63. 16-63 Issues and Applications: Smart Cards, Digital Cash, and the Money Supply 4 The microchips embedded in smart cards give them a technical edge over debit cards. 4 At present, about 300 million smart cards are used around the globe. 4 In a world in which people widely use digital cash the money multiplier would be larger.

64. 16-64 Figure 16-5 The Distribution of the World’s Smart Cards

65. 16-65 Summary of Learning Objectives 4 How the Federal Reserve assesses reserve requirements ÜEstablishes a required reserve ratio, currently 10% 4 Why the money supply does not change when someone deposits in a depository institution funds transferred from another depository institution ÜBecause total deposits remain unchanged for the banking system as a whole

66. 16-66 Summary of Learning Objectives (cont'd) 4 Why the money supply does change when someone deposits in a depository institution funds transferred from the Federal Reserve System ÜThere is an immediate increase in total deposits in the banking system as a whole 4 The maximum potential change in the money supply following a Federal Reserve purchase or sale of U.S. government securities ÜThe multiplier

67. 16-67 Summary of Learning Objectives (cont'd) 4 The Fed influences the money supply through ÜOpen market operations, the discount rate, and the reserve requirement 4 The FDIC was established in 1933 to prevent bank runs. ÜDifficulties include adverse selection and moral hazard

68. April 28 Assignment to be completed before class April 28: Study Chapters 14, 15 & 16 & be prepared to ask questions during our review.