1. Infrastructure Damage in ShakeOut (&ARkStorm) RESIN seminar, UC Berkeley, 30 Sep 2009 Keith Porter, Associate Research Professor Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering University of Colorado at Boulder

2. Damage & social-science studies Earth-science effects modeled by several SCEC experts, discussed and revised after a large conference Consequent damage assessed by 19 study groups: HAZUS study, replaced piecewise by research teams, expert panels, & combinations HAZUS study, replaced piecewise by research teams, expert panels, & combinations Informed by computer models Informed by computer models Grounded in historic evidence Grounded in historic evidence Acknowledge need to extrapolate from past experience and limited analysis Acknowledge need to extrapolate from past experience and limited analysis Economic analysis and emergency response outcomes by USC, OES, CU, and others Earth sciences Physical damage Societal impacts

3. Infrastructure damage Closer look at important lifelines Telecommunications (ASCE TCLEE: Alex Tang) Rail (ASCE TCLEE: Bill Byers) Highways (Panel + REDARS Group) Mass transit (Panel) Ports of LA & Long Beach (CU Boulder + panel) Water supply (Panel) Wastewater (Panel) Dams (Panel) Surface streets (Panel) Electric Power (Panel) Oil and gas pipelines (MMI Engineering + panel) Hospitals (ASCE TCLEE: Mark Pickett) + elevators, hazmat, and community impacts on Palm Springs, CA

4. Charge to researchers and panelists Panels included operators, maintenance personnel, PIOs, many of whom who were already engaged with Caltech & USGS. Coordinating agencies little help. Panels included operators, maintenance personnel, PIOs, many of whom who were already engaged with Caltech & USGS. Coordinating agencies little help. Scope & duration of panels (3.5 hr) provided with the invitation Scope & duration of panels (3.5 hr) provided with the invitation Researchers were top experts in their field, e.g., Scawthorn Researchers were top experts in their field, e.g., Scawthorn Acquire & accept hazard information Acquire & accept hazard information Review findings of “upstream” lifelines (power, water, roads…) Review findings of “upstream” lifelines (power, water, roads…) Characterize assets at risk, past studies, past events Characterize assets at risk, past studies, past events Interpret computer models, if available, but acknowledge differences in scale, interaction, and other issues of extrapolation etc. Interpret computer models, if available, but acknowledge differences in scale, interaction, and other issues of extrapolation etc. Produce one realistic damage outcome, depiction of restoration (low stakes?). Depiction evolved during the discussion, sometimes accommodating political sensitivities. Spanned from granular to systemic damage & restoration: why & where would damage occur, how would restoration occur? Produce one realistic damage outcome, depiction of restoration (low stakes?). Depiction evolved during the discussion, sometimes accommodating political sensitivities. Spanned from granular to systemic damage & restoration: why & where would damage occur, how would restoration occur? Identify promising mitigation measures, research needs. (Carrot) Identify promising mitigation measures, research needs. (Carrot) Later, review studies by others, revisit findings (lifeline interaction) Later, review studies by others, revisit findings (lifeline interaction) Schedule: 3-6 months Schedule: 3-6 months

5. MMI, PGA, PGV, Sa(0.3), Sa(1.0), Sa(3.0) maps produced Provided to damage estimation teams and panels: ground motion maps, showing realistic directionality effects (downtown LA, etc.) cannot by duplicated using traditional approaches. Before physics-based modeling, loss < 1/3 of that modeled here

6. Scawthorn fire following earthquake study 1,600 ignitions requiring a fire engine 1,600 ignitions requiring a fire engine 1,200 exceed capability of 1 st engine 1,200 exceed capability of 1 st engine Orange County & LA basin: dozens of large fires merge into conflagrations destroying 100s of blocks Orange County & LA basin: dozens of large fires merge into conflagrations destroying 100s of blocks 200 million square feet burnt ≈ 133,000 single family dwellings 200 million square feet burnt ≈ 133,000 single family dwellings Property loss: $65 billion Property loss: $65 billion No Santa Ana winds, not worst case No Santa Ana winds, not worst case Study vetted by top state and county fire officials with relationships w Shakeout leaders & Scawthon Study vetted by top state and county fire officials with relationships w Shakeout leaders & Scawthon 1989 Loma Prieta 1994 Northridge

7. Electric power study 10 experts from 5 agencies find: Immediate loss of power throughout region Immediate loss of power throughout region Collapse of some high-tension towers, damage to transformers on overhead poles Collapse of some high-tension towers, damage to transformers on overhead poles Generating plants taken offline for inspection Generating plants taken offline for inspection Interesting feedback & revision occurred Interesting feedback & revision occurred Thinking through the scenario & considering LL interaction led to mitigation actions Thinking through the scenario & considering LL interaction led to mitigation actions LA, Riverside, & San Bern. Counties: 30-50% of service restored in 24 hrs 30-50% of service restored in 24 hrs 75-90% restored in 3 days, ~100% in 1-4 mos 75-90% restored in 3 days, ~100% in 1-4 mos Ventura, Orange, & Imperial Counties: 90% restored in 2 days 90% restored in 2 days Kern & San Diego Counties: 90% restored in 24 hr 90% restored in 24 hr Transmission lines & power plants 1971 San Fernando Earthquake

8. ARkStorm Scenario: same approach Hazard info Hazard info  Windspeed maps, floodmaps (depth & velocity; riverine and coastal), wave heights, etc. in KMZ Damage assessments similar to ShakeOut Damage assessments similar to ShakeOut  + Ag, offshore, coastal, environmental… Vetting by review groups as appopriate Vetting by review groups as appopriate

9. Thanks keith.porter@colorado.edu (626) 233-9758

10. Caltech highrise steelframe building study Mexico City, 1985 E2E modeling E2E modeling Connections fractured in Northridge Earthquake; Kobe: 10s collapsed Connections fractured in Northridge Earthquake; Kobe: 10s collapsed Scenario: 5 collapses among 600+ buildings Scenario: 5 collapses among 600+ buildings 11-15 stories, 200,000- 300,000 sf 11-15 stories, 200,000- 300,000 sf ~1,000 occupants each ~1,000 occupants each 10 red tags, 20 yellow 10 red tags, 20 yellow Review by SAC Steel project leaders Review by SAC Steel project leaders Final estimate balanced the finding of the study& the review panel Final estimate balanced the finding of the study& the review panel