1. Copyright © 2013 Curt Hill Creating the To-Be Architecture Using the crystal ball

2. Introduction The real problem is there is no crystal ball Meteorologists get paid to predict the weather –They are often close, but seldom dead- on accurate –They are supported by extensive observational and predictive computer systems, which cost millions If this is hard, how much more so is what the business environment will be like in five years? Copyright © 2013 Curt Hill

3. Probability In dealing with the future there are an infinite number of potential futures –This is unwieldy, so we must limit Most of these potential futures are of very low likelihood –These we do not consider If a potential future has no proper reaction we may also dismiss Thus, we focus on small number of likely changes Copyright © 2013 Curt Hill

4. Probability again Where can the changes come from? –External factors –Internal initiatives We must weigh the likelihood of each external change Initiatives only need consideration if they appear to have sufficient executive backing to be implemented Copyright © 2013 Curt Hill

5. CONOPS CONcept of OPeration Scenarios This kind of scenario is a guess at what could happen and how it would affect the enterprise Military planning tool that also works for business At its simplest it is a story of “what if” Copyright © 2013 Curt Hill

6. Developing Several things need to go into a CONOPS Start with the SWOT –Focus on threats and opportunities Develop a scenario –Tells a story of how the enterprise would function in the near future Develop multiple versions –Short for quick sharing –Long for giving guidance for planning Copyright © 2013 Curt Hill

7. Exercise Lets do something different and read the case study in the text –Pp. ~162-163 Were any planning assumptions left out? What is it that we do not see? Copyright © 2013 Curt Hill

8. Why Scenarios I? Imagine multiple futures based on optimistic and pessimistic projections Develops strategic thinking and learning Opens conversations in enterprise strategy Challenge or dispel assumptions about the official future Copyright © 2013 Curt Hill

9. Why Scenarios II? Inspire leadership for new initiatives or direction Create options for decision making; Create a shared vision of the future to influence organizational and individual thinking Open communications channels that transcends organizational boundaries, time and space. Copyright © 2013 Curt Hill

10. Scenario Hints I Involve both senior leadership and front-line staff Evaluate ideas on their merits not their source. –Use group techniques or groupware to promote creativity and non-linear thinking –How does culture affect this? Use communities of practice that span multiple functions to create scenarios. Copyright © 2013 Curt Hill

11. Hints II Scenarios should address specific business value propositions –Such as knowledge re-use, innovation, customer intimacy. –Scenarios should be outcome oriented. Try to tie together human, process, and technology dimensions to show the potential future state –Relate the initiative to complementary organizational initiatives Keep scenarios short –One to two pages maximum Copyright © 2013 Curt Hill

12. Hints III Widely broadcast the scenarios –Allow employees, strategic partners and stakeholders a voice Give credit to those who develop scenarios Scenario development is the start of a continuous process –Must be frequently revisited. Copyright © 2013 Curt Hill

13. Future EA There are a limited number of scenarios that may be considered –If too many they will be ignored –Three at minimum: offensive, status quo, defensive The next step is to update artifacts There needs to be a clear separation between current and future –An update to the strategic plan might be considered insubordination –We also do not want people to plan using a future that will not exist Copyright © 2013 Curt Hill

14. Version Control Once the team has established the current EA, it spends much of its time on the future The eventuality that needs to be avoided is that the future EA is updated daily Updates should come out no more often than twice a year –Update the entire scenario and its consequences all at once Copyright © 2013 Curt Hill