1. Resource Availability for HIV/AIDS & the Funding Gap Juan-Pablo Gutierrez, Stefano Bertozzi National Institute of Public Health National Institute of Public Health

2. Track the unmet need for HIV/AIDS Estimates of total resources needed to provide an adequate response to HIV/AIDS: Estimates of total resources needed to provide an adequate response to HIV/AIDS: 2001 estimate for UNGASS 2001 estimate for UNGASS 2004 revised estimates for BKK 2004 revised estimates for BKK The unmet need is the total need less available resources The unmet need is the total need less available resources Estimates of future unmet need is the difference between crude estimates of future need and even more uncertain projections of likely resources available Estimates of future unmet need is the difference between crude estimates of future need and even more uncertain projections of likely resources available

3. How to estimate amount available? Existing data on how much has been available in previous years and how quickly that has grown Existing data on how much has been available in previous years and how quickly that has grown Data on future resource estimates: Global Fund commitments to countries, PEPFAR commitments and trends in funding from other donors Data on future resource estimates: Global Fund commitments to countries, PEPFAR commitments and trends in funding from other donors Data sources: Data sources: UNAIDS UNAIDS Global Fund Global Fund Kaiser Family Foundation Kaiser Family Foundation SIDALAC SIDALAC

4. Projected resources available Billions $- $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 $8 $9 $10 20032004200520062007 North Africa and Near East Latin America and the Caribbean Global/Interregional Eastern Europe East Asia and the Pacific South and South-east Asia Sub-Sahara Africa

5. Projected sources of funding 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 22% 21% 9% 41% 2003 21% 17% 16% 39% 2004 28% 13% 24% 31% 2005 31% 12% 22% 31% 2006 36% 10% 20% 30% 2007 Domestic NGO Foundations GFFATM International Bilateral

6. Projected unmet need Billions $- $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 $14 $16 $18 $20 Unmet need Bilateral GFFATM Foundations International NGO Domestic 2003 16% 2004 26% 2005 28% 2006 42% 2007 49%

7. Conclusions Projections of current trends suggest that the resource gap is growing Projections of current trends suggest that the resource gap is growing Resources projected are approx 38 billion for 2003 to 2007; estimated need for the same period is about 61 billion Resources projected are approx 38 billion for 2003 to 2007; estimated need for the same period is about 61 billion If current trends don't improve, half of estimated need for 2007 will be unmet If current trends don't improve, half of estimated need for 2007 will be unmet