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© 2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 3/1/2009 Downturns and Recoveries.

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Presentation on theme: "© 2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 3/1/2009 Downturns and Recoveries."— Presentation transcript:

1 © 2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 3/1/2009 Downturns and Recoveries

2 Stock Market Contractions and Expansions 1973–2008 Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. © 2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 3/1/2009 0 1 10 $100 20082003199819931988198319781973 Contraction Expansion Stocks 0 200 400% –200 –42.6% –14.3% –16.5% –29.6% –14.7% –15.4% –44.7% 86.0% 87.0% 279.6% 71.5% 355.1% 62.6% 108.4% –40.1%

3 Market Downturns and Recoveries 1926–2008 Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. *The exact length of the downturn has yet to be determined. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. © 2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 3/1/2009 –83.4% –21.8% –10.2% –15.0% –22.3% –15.6% –29.3% –42.6% –14.3% –16.5% –29.6% –14.7% –15.4% –44.7% % Loss –40.1% 34 months 6 months 7 months 5 months 6 months 8 months 19 months 21 months 14 months 20 months 3 months 5 months 2 months 25 months Downturn 14 months 151 months 35 months 5 months 7 months 10 months 6 months 9 months 21 months 5 months 3 months 18 months 4 months 49 months TBD 3 months Recovery TBD*Nov 2007–Dec 2008 Sep 1929–Jun 1932Jul 1932–Jan 1945 Jun 1946–Nov 1946Dec 1946–Oct 1949 Aug 1956–Feb 1957Mar 1957–Jul 1957 Aug 1957–Dec 1957Jan 1958–Jul 1958 Jan 1962–Jun 1962Jul 1962–Apr 1963 Feb 1966–Sep 1966Oct 1966–Mar 1967 Dec 1968–Jun 1970Jul 1970–Mar 1971 Jan 1973–Sep 1974Oct 1974–Jun 1976 Jan 1977–Feb 1978Mar 1978–Jul 1978 Dec 1980–Jul 1982Aug 1982–Oct 1982 Sep 1987–Nov 1987Dec 1987–May 1989 Jun 1990–Oct 1990Nov 1990–Feb 1991 Jul 1998–Aug 1998Sep 1998–Nov 1998 Sep 2000–Sep 2002Oct 2002–Oct 2006

4 Periods of Consecutive Negative Stock Returns 1926–2008 Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. © 2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 3/1/2009 20% 37% 29% 54% –25% –12% –0.4% –10% –26% –8% –43% –8% –15% –9% –12% –22% Average stock market return from 1926  2008 was 9.6% –50 –40 –30 –20 –10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60% Return 1939194019411942200020012002200319731974197519291930193119321933

5 Stock Performance During Recessions 1946–2008 Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Hypothetical value of $1 invested at the beginning of 1946. Assumes reinvestment of income and no transaction costs or taxes. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. © 2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 3/1/2009 Shaded regions denote economic recessions 0.10 1 10 100 $1,000 1946195619661976198619962006 1949 19541958 196019701974 1980 1982 1990 20012008

6 Stock Performance After Recessions 1946–2008 Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Cumulative returns of large and small stocks after recessions 1946–2008. Note: The recession that began in Dec 2007 is still occurring and is not included in the analysis. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. © 2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 3/1/2009 3.8% 20.1% 33.7% 74.0% 2.2% 11.4% 19.1% 47.7% After 3 yearsAfter 1 yearAfter 6 monthsAfter 1 month 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80% Return Small stocks Large stocks

7 History of Interest Rates July 1954–December 2008 Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Each bar shows the range of yield for each bond over the time period July 1954 to December 2008. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. © 2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 3/1/2009 Current 5.62% 6.69% 6.25% Average: 5.69% 0 5 10 15 20% Federal funds LT government yield IT government yield 1-yr government yield

8 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18% Yield 1996200619861976196619561946 Bond Yields During Recessions 1946–2008 Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. © 2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 3/1/2009 0.49% 3.03% Shaded regions denote economic recessions Short-term govt bonds (4/53–12/08) Long-term govt bonds

9 Stock Returns and Monetary Policy Annualized monthly returns, July 1971–December 2008 Past performance is no guarantee of future results. *Period length and calculation exclude the month of initial change in policy to measure “pure” monetary policy environment. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. © 2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 3/1/2009 Restrictive Expansive –21.6% –1.9% 3.5% 2.5% –2.2% Dec 74–Jul 77 May 80–Aug 80 Nov 81–Mar 84 Dec 90–Apr 94 Jan 96–Jul 99 Nov 84–Aug 87 Jan 01–Jun 04 Aug 07–Dec 08 Aug 99–Dec 00 May 94–Dec 95 Sep 87–Nov 90 Apr 84–Oct 84 Sep 80–Oct 81 Aug 77–Apr 80 Jan 73–Nov 74 Nov 71–Dec 72 Jul 71–Oct 71 Monetary period 13 months 31 months 3 months 28 months 40 months 42 months 33 months 41 months 3 months 16 months 19 months 38 months 6 months 13 months 32 months 22 months Period length* Jul 04–Jul 0736 months 22.1% 5.7% 13.7% 10.1% 24.5% 19.6% 44.5% 16.0% 30.5% 12.9% 24.3% 11.4% Average return–300%10203040–10–20 –32.0% Entire period average = 10.3%

10 U.S. Market Recovery After Tragedy Cumulative return of stocks after tragic events Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Returns reflect the percentage change in the index level from the end of the month that the event occurred to one month, six months, one year, and three years after. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. © 2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 3/1/2009 80% 60 40 20 0 –20 Dec 7, 1941: Pearl Harbor Aug 2, 1990: Iraq invades Kuwait Feb 26, 1993: World Trade Center bombed Sep 11, 2001: Terrorist attack 1.9% 2.1% –4.9% 1.6% After 1 month After 6 months –1.0% 15.9% 6.1% 11.0% After 1 year –20.5% 8.3% 26.9% 20.3% After 3 years 81.4% 57.8% 56.7% 12.6%

11 40 20 0 –20 –40 U.S. Market Recovery After Financial Crises Cumulative return of all-stock portfolio after various events Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Returns reflect the percentage change in the index level from the end of the month in which the event occurred to one month, six months, one year, three years and five years after. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. © 2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 3/1/2009 100% Return 80 60 –8.2% October 1987: Stock market crash After 1 month After 6 months After 1 year After 3 years After 5 years August 1989: U.S. savings and loan crisis September 1998: Long-Term Capital Management’s bailout March 2000: The dot-com crash September 2001: Terrorist attack –0.4% 8.1% –3.0% 1.9% 5.5% –4.0% 27.3% –3.6% 11.0% 14.8% –5.0% 27.8% –21.7% –20.5% 34.3% 30.1% 6.2% –40.9% 12.6% 97.1% 58.1% 5.1% –14.8% 40.1% Portfolio 100% stocks

12 40 20 0 –20 –40 U.S. Market Recovery After Financial Crises Cumulative return of balanced portfolio after various events Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Returns reflect the percentage change in the index level from the end of the month in which the event occurred to one month, six months, one year, three years and five years after. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. © 2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 3/1/2009 100% Return 80 60 –4.8% October 1987: Stock market crash August 1989: U.S. savings and loan crisis September 1998: Long-Term Capital Management’s bailout March 2000: The dot-com crash September 2001: Terrorist attack –0.2% 4.0% –2.1% 3.0% 5.2% –2.0% 13.2% –0.7% 5.0% 14.3% –2.3% 12.3% –8.9% –7.1% 34.3% 34.6% 11.3% –15.3% 19.6% 90.1% 59.2% 20.3% 10.3% 42.3% Portfolio 60% stocks 40% bonds After 1 month After 6 months After 1 year After 3 years After 5 years


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