1. Labor, Radicals, and a Democratic President: Seeking Social Change in 2012? Martin Halpern LMU Amerika-Institut, 14 November 2012

2. 1 The Left Working-class orientation Seeks social justice for oppressed at home and abroad Long-term goal of transforming society so that caring and cooperation are the organizing principles, socialism Short-term goals: strengthening working class organization and progressive change

3. 2 Progressivism that set of changes under discussion in the body politic at a given moment that would improve the lives of working people and the oppressed and make society as a whole more just.

4. 3 Sustained Periods of Social Progress Have Occurred When: Labor movement energized by progressive activists Significant left movements organizing large numbers of working people. Left-center coalitions effective at local and national levels. Democratic president strongly influenced by liberalism

5. 4 Twentieth Century Politics: The New Deal Turning Point Roosevelt and New Deal coalition achieves significant social reforms – Wagner Act, Social Security Act, Fair Labor Standards Act CIO industrial unions win a degree of power Northern Democrats shift toward a policy of inclusion of African Americans, begin supporting civil rights actions Democrats become normal majority party

6. 5 Gradual Erosion of Democratic Position 1938: GOP picks up seats based on opposition to sit-downs and communism 1940: GOP makes further gains based on opposition to FDR foreign policy Cold war anti-communism in both foreign and domestic policy helps GOP GOP gains among white Southerners and others opposed to civil rights began in 1948 and accelerate as national Democrats ally with civil rights movement in 1960s

7. 6 Since the 1960s Democratic division on foreign policy begun during the Vietnam war persists South becomes normally Republican in presidential politics Republicans make gains on cultural issues, but liberals and left deflect right-wing attacks; most Americans tolerant Democrats draw new strength from civil rights, feminist and environmental movements

8. 7 Economic Crisis of 1970s New business activism in politics Rapid decline of union density after 1975 weakens key Democratic constituency Right-wing anti-tax campaigns Democratic party leaders and financial supporters shift away from liberalism Carter administration’s failures weaken Democrats among working class, depress low-income voter turnout

9. Democratic Comeback began in 1990-1992 1990 election gains Minimum wage increase won Civil Rights Act of 1991 Grass roots mobilizations for reproductive rights Grass roots mobilizations for reproductive rights Bill Clinton’s election 8

10. March for Women’s Lives, April 5, 1992

11. 10 Clintonite Centrism Again Erodes Democratic Base Clinton governs from the center-right; undermines New Deal liberalism with welfare reform, accepting Reaganite budget and anti-big government concepts Clinton triangulation strategy weakens Democratic effort to retake Congress after 1994 Republican victory

12. 11 John Sweeney and New Voices win leadership of AFL-CIO Greater diversity in leadership Coalitions with students and rights groups Aggressive political action campaigns Organizing the unorganized Against NAFTA and for Workplace Fairness Support for undocumented workers’ rights

13. 12 Left, Labor, and Progressive Campaigns Grow Increase in minimum wage won in 1996, Teamster victory in UPS strike in 1997 Marches for civil, abortion, and gay and lesbian rights, children’s programs, and gun control Protests against School of Americas and Yugoslav war “Teamsters and Turtles” protest WTO in Seattle “Teamsters and Turtles” protest WTO in Seattle

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15. 14 Progressives’ Search for Electoral Alternative has limited success AFL-CIO calls for electing 2000 unionists in 2000 NOW calls for Twentieth Century Party Supreme Court ends New Party’s fusion tactic Green Party elects candidates in progressive enclaves, runs Nader in 2000

16. 15 2000 Election: Nader Critiques corporate domination of politics Mass rallies, support from youth, disaffected, and some Perot backers Endorsed by UE, California Nurses Association Emphasizes criticism of Democrats, says they need a cold shower Pulls Gore to the left but his attacks on Democrats helped Bush’s effort to appear as a “compassionate conservative” whom centrists could choose

17. 16 2000 Election: Gore In wake of Clintonite centrist turn, Gore and Bush are “shockingly alike” on major issues Influenced by progressive allies and by Nader campaign, Gore emphasizes populist themes Major progressive groups, AFL-CIO, and CP mobilize for Gore Strong attacks against Nader as spoiler by Gore partisans Wins popular vote

18. 17 2004 Election Campaign Mass left-led anti-war movement propelled Dean to the forefront and shaped campaign Democratic constituencies’ anger over extremist administration, theft of 2000 election, jobs and health care crises All Democratic candidates but one make progressive appeals, Clintonite centrism eclipsed John Kerry runs an aggressive campaign with progressive themes

19. 18 Progressives and the Left in 2004 Grass roots mobilization on a new scale, increased voter registration Effective independent campaigning by unions, MoveOn.org, Michael Moore, ACT, etc. Greens refuse to endorse Nader, emphasize building party not damaging Democrats Some on left focus on criticizing Kerry’s shortcomings, most on beating Bush and electing Kerry

21. Bush’s Second Term Incompetent and uncaring response to Hurricane Katrina; corruption and scandals Record federal deficit, slow economy, mortgage and banking crises, collapse of stock market, recession Public shifts decisively against the war in Iraq 2006 election -- Democrats retake Congress, hold 28 governorships Bush’s approval level reached near-record low even before economic collapse

22. 2008 Election Breakthrough in opening up highest office possibility to minorities and women GOP ability to use cultural issues, racism, and national security fears to win presidential elections declines Economic collapse shapes campaign

23. Obama 365 McCain 173 Barack Obama 67,066,915 52.7% John McCain 58,421,377 45.9%

24. 2008 Election Decisive victory by Obama and Democratic Congressional gains pointed to diminished racism and mandate for changing direction of country Obama’s support for bank bailout: corporate domination continues unabated

25. Obama’s Appointees Prominent political figures, headed by Hilary Clinton as Secretary of State Diversity similar to that of Clinton Most economic appointees are big-business oriented and overall a centrist cast One progressive, Labor Secretary Hilda Solis, and a couple of liberals Pro-union appointees to NLRB Two progressive women appointed to Supreme Court

27. Obama’s Domestic Policies Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act Economic Stimulus Package -- funds for health care and green jobs but bank bailout continued; limited assistance to homeowners Expansion of Children’s Health Program Significant health care reform, coverage for all but no public option Education program weakens public education but improvement of college loan program

28. Obama’s Domestic Policies Action on greenhouse gases, climate change, energy Strengthening consumer and financial regulation Seeks Dream Act, stops deportation of youth without documents Supports marriage equality High unemployment, the country’s biggest problem, persists

29. Obama’s Foreign and Defense Policies Repeal of Global Gag Rule, restored international family planning Executive orders to close down Guantanamo Bay prison, ban use of torture but Bagram prison continued in Afghanistan and closing delayed Military budget increased

30. Obama’s Foreign and Defense Policies Gradual withdrawal from Iraq plan slower than campaign promise, attempt to keep troops there fails More troops to Afghanistan; in 2011 embraces exit strategy from unpopular war Tiny steps away from embargo against Cuba

31. Obama’s Foreign and Defense Policies Significant arms reduction treaty with Russia Response to Arab Spring included position to protect most conservative regimes such as Bahrain, military interventions At Climate Conference in Durban, South Africa, U.S. worked to prevent action

32. Politics of the Obama Presidency Republican conservatives refuse to support their party’s moderates Some GOP and anti-gay victories in 2009 but public opinion shifting toward tolerance; support for gay marriage growssupport for gay marriage grows Growing protests by students and university employees over cuts and tuition hikes Labor rally for One Nation and Jon Stewart Rally to Restore Sanity on eve of 2010 election

33. National Equality March October 11, 2009

34. 2010 Election and its aftermath Continuing high unemployment, low turnout of Democratic voters shaped election Republicans take House majority, Democratic majority in Senate diminished Obama sought compromise but Republicans say chief goal is to defeat Obama

35. 2011 Events Republicans in several states to take away bargaining rights from public workers’ unions Massive labor and student protests against anti-union law in Wisconsin Massive labor and student protests against anti-union law in Wisconsin Ohio labor with support of Obama campaign succeeds in overturning anti- union law and forcing repeal of restrictive voting law

36. Occupy Wall Street Movement Protests against unemployment, bank profiteering, foreclosures, and corporate domination of government spread across the country Movement succeeds in changing the political debate The 99% versus the 1% idea has widespread support

37. 2012 Election Campaigns Walker survives recall Republican campaign dominates the media Romney prevails due to money and willingness to embrace right-wing Unlimited money gives rich increasing dominance in framing of our political discussions

38. Unions Influential but Weaker Membership base of 14.8 million Continuing decline in union density Split in AFL-CIO Factional and jurisdictional battles Benefit from new NLRB initiatives Forced to fight defensive battles 37

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40. Unions Back Obama... Support health care and regulatory reforms and welcome pro-labor measures Despite dissatisfaction with Obama’s economic policy and failure to act on Employee Free Choice Act, pragmatic decisions to oppose far right trend in Republican Party

41. But maintain some independence AFL-CIO President Trumka speaks out against “grand bargain,” defends Social Security and Medicare Labor activists take new initiatives

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43. Chicago Teachers Win Strike 42

44. Labor Political Action 2012 Unions and allied independent labor groups (Working America) mobilizing Get out vote for Democrats Aim to put collective bargaining rights in Michigan Constitution Seek to stop California effort to prevent union political contributions 43

45. Progressive and Left Groups Backing Obama and Democrats Planned Parenthood NAACP 300,000 NOW 500,000, Sierra Club 1.3 million AAUW 150,000 Alliance for Retired Americans 4 million Institute for Policy Studies Communist Party and Democratic Socialists of America 44

46. Progressive and Left Groups Not Backing Obama Peace Action 100,000 United for Peace and Justice – 1300 groups Committees of Correspondence for Peace and Democracy Green Party, Calif. Peace and Freedom Party, Socialist Party 45

47. Obama 62,306,898 votes 51% Romney 58,937,514 votes 48% 46

48. 47 Democratic Constituencies in 2004, 2008, 2012 2004 2008 2012 African Americans 88 95 93 Democrats 89 89 92 liberals 85 88 86 Jews 75 78 69 No religious affilia. 67 75 70 Other faiths 74 73 74 gays and lesbians 77 70 76 unmarried women 62 70 67 Hispanics 53 67 71 18-29 year olds 54 66 60 Asian Americans 56 62 73 Union household 59 59 58

49. 2012 Referenda Gay marriage issue – wins in four states Anti-union measure defeated in California but so is pro-union measure in Michigan GMO labeling in California defeated Death penalty ban in California defeated Easing restrictions on marijuana –passes in 3 of 6 states 48

50. Why a Close Election? Shift of corporate interests like GE, Goldman Sachs to GOP Lid off spending by wealthy Limited improvement on jobs, housing, health care Many who prefer Obama unlikely to vote Obstacles to voting and fair count 49

51. Social Change Prospects? Grass roots initiatives will continue Diverse left engaged in numerous social movements but strategy and unity lacking Obama has sent conflicting signals – support for worker initiatives but also seeking grand compromise with GOP on Social Security and Medicare 50

52. Best Campaign Video 51