1. Improvement and Harmonization of Montenegro BSHAP Earthquake Catalogue MS Jadranka Mihaljevic, Civil Eng mihaljevic@seismo.co.me 2 nd PROJECT WORKSHOP Belgrade, 25-26 April,2013 Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries

2. Improved Montenegro BSHAP Earthquake Catalogue, B. Glavatovic 1970-2012 M L > 3.0 *Covering area app. 10-15 km from national borders Full catalogue / main event & cluster events/ *Polyline 17.86 41.74 18.36 42.35 18.32 43.01 19.00 43.75 20.53 42.95 20.20 42.55 19.93 42.40 19.67 42.42 19.44 42.20 19.50 42.14 19.46 41.82 18.87 41.12 17.86 41.74

3. Earthquake data Month Date Hour Minute Sec Lat Long (WGS, three decimal places) M L & Reporting Agency M w & Reporting Agency M w harmonized NOTES: * Intensity data not given * Mm data not given * Reporting agency PDG * (Automatic) Declustering procedure on polygon * M w given acc to L. Duni, N. Kuka, Sh. Kuka, A. Fundo, 2010 “Towards a new seismic hazardassessment of Albania”, Proceedings of XIV ECEE Ohrid, Macedonia, T1- paper No1894.

4. National catalogue data *delivered by the beginning of BSHAP project Mw 3.0 + events since 1970 * delivered for Improvements

5. Statistics on 1970-2012 M 3.0+ sub-catalogue: N o of Events: 1008 N o of Main events: 413 N o of Cluster events*: 595

6. 1970-2012 Mw 3+ Subcatalogue is relevant for the investigation of completeness of smaller magnitude classes, J. Mihaljevic Completness of magnitude class 3.0 < Mw < 3. 5 (Cumulative No of events vs Year) Completness of magnitude class 3.5 < Mw < 4.0

7. Completness of magnitude class 4.0 < Mw < 4.5 Completness of magnitude class 4.5 < Mw < 5.0 Investigation of completeness of higher magnitude classes (sipmple addition of latest data to MSO +3.5 catalogue provided in July 2010)

8. Completness of magnitude class 5.0 < Mw < 5.5 Completness of magnitude class 5.5 < Mw < 6.0, 6.0 < Mw < 6.5, 6.5< Mw < 7.0

9. Available earthquake catalogue BSHAP _E catalogue (M. Herak): - m o 3.0, m max 7.4 - time span [-510, 2009] y. - declustered - no magnitude type unification. National Mne catalogue refers to 1440 A.D., while the neighboring Albanian and Croatian catalogues originate from times B.C. Data completeness to be investigated on extract/subcatalogue of BSHAP_E catalog for narrow Montenegro territory: This choice was set to preserve the rate of known large earthquakes for Montenegro itself. Shortcoming of method is that number of available earthquake data is smaller. Magnitude classes: 0.5 and 0.2 magnitude increment Completeness investigated for each magnitude class Previous Investigation on data completeness influence to final seismic hazard results, J. Mihaljevic

10. ClassRange Class complete Years of compl. data Normalization factor N(M) in Y. compl. Normalized N(M) sincetill 7.17-7.214002008608122 6.96.8-7.014002008608122 6.76.6-6.814002008608111 6.56.4-6.614002008608100 6.36.2-6.414002008608111 6.16.0-6.2150020085081.19646400 5.95.8-6.0155020084581.32679745.307188 5.75.6-5.8160020084081.4889981 5.55.4-5.6175020082582.35135124.702702 5.35.2-5.4190020081085.587156211.174312 5.15.0-5.2190020081085.587156316.761468 4.94.8-5.0190020081085.587156633.522936 4.74.6-4.819152008936.4787231384.223399 4.54.4-4.6195020085810.3220314144.50842 4.34.2-4.4195520085311.2777817191.72226 4.14.0-4.2196820084014.8536620297.0732 3.93.8-4.0197020083815.6153815234.2307 3.73.6-3.8197520083317.9117635626.9116 3.53.4-3.6197920082920.340812 3.33.2-3.4197920082920.3551116.5 3.13.0-3.2197920082920.31102233 Recurrence rate: Standard Gutenberg-Richter recurrence low (b=0.89, Mu=7.2), applying standard MLE algorithm for the calculation of b, Using doubly truncated recurrence low, calculated by OHAZ program (b- value 0.952, the best data fit refers to Mu 7.5)

11. NATO SfP 984374 PROJECT Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries Sensibility Analysis - Case Study Montenegro, J. Mihaljevic ApproachNational - (a)Harmonized / Regional – (b) (c) Catalogue  BSHAP-E version ranging from 1440 A.D  More precise completeness level  BSHAP-E version ranging from -510 B.C.  Not so uniform completeness over the region Seismotectonic  Precise for Mne,  General for the Influence area  Precise and harmonized for the region Sesimotectonic models: (a) Montenegro case study, (b) Corresponding section of BSHAP seismoteconic model prepared for preliminary hazard assessment, Zagreb workshop ( c) Corresponding section of BSHAP Final BSHAP sesmotectonic model. (a) (b) ( c)

12. NATO SfP 984374 PROJECT Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries Sensibility Analysis - Case Study Montenegro, J. Mihaljevic

13. 0.23 g 0.27 g (a) Montenegro case study (T=475) 0.18 g 0.29 g (b) Preliminary BSHAP results (T=475) 0.27 g 0.35 g (c) Final BSHAP results (T=475)