1. Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: Systems Architecting and the Political Process What’s Next for Manned Space Programs? University of Southern California Viterbi School of Engineering Systems Architecture & Engineering (SAE) Ken Cureton February 2015 cureton@usc.edu

2. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 2 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Next for Manned Space Programs? WHAT’S NEXT FOR MANNED SPACE? –LOSS OF CHALLENGER IN 1987 GREATLY INFLUENCED THE PROGRAM’S FUTURE –GRADUAL RECOGNITION IN 1990s THAT SHUTTLE DESIGN WAS AGING –MORE EXPENSIVE TO MAINTAIN AND LAUNCH THAN EVER –LOSS OF COLUMBIA IN 2003 ACCELERATED THE SEARCH FOR COST SAVINGS –MANY REPLACEMENT SYSTEMS PROPOSED, FUNDED, AND THEN CANCELLED

3. SAE 550 CLASS 05 PAGE 3 SAE 550 LECTURE #5 LAUNCH SYSTEMS (Shuttle, ALS, NLS) MOST RECENTLY CANCELLED PROGRAM: –CONSTELLATION: NASA AUTHORIZATION ACT OF 2010 BROUGHT PROGRAM TO AN END ON OCTOBER 11, 2010 CONSTELLATION PROGRAM REPLACED BY THE U.S. NATIONAL SPACE POLICY –FINAL SHUTTLE FLIGHT: JULY 8, 2011 –RELIANT ON RUSSIANS THEREAFTER

4. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 4 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Next for Manned Space Programs? RUSSIAN SPACECRAFT ARE NOW THE ONLY MEANS USED BY ASTRONAUTS TRAVELING TO THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION –BAIKONUR IS SOLE LAUNCH SITE USED FOR MANNED MISSIONS TO THE ISS MAY 2014: RUSSIANS ANNOUNCED NO MORE SUPPORT TO ISS AFTER 2020 NASA NOW WORKING WITH US COMPANIES –DEVELOPING SPACE TAXIS WITH GOAL OF RESTORING US TRANSPORT TO ISS BY 2017

5. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 5 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Next for Manned Space Programs? RUSSIAN “SOYUZ” MANNED LAUNCH SYSTEM

6. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 6 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Next for Manned Space Programs? SOYUZ-TM EXTERIOR CREW CAPACITY: THREE CREW RETURN MODULE

7. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 7 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Next for Manned Space Programs? SOYUZ-TM INTERIOR

8. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 8 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Next for Manned Space Programs? CHINA: MANNED SPACE FLIGHT PLAN – FIRST MANNED SPACE VEHICLE: 10/15/2003 – SPACE LABORATORY: 2015 20 DAYS WITH CREW OF 3 – SPACE STATION: 2018+ INDIA: MANNED SPACE FLIGHT AFTER 2017 SHENZHOU 5 REENTRY MODULE

9. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 9 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Next for Manned Space Programs? COMMERCIAL SPACE INFRASTRUCTURE? NASA’S $30M COMMERCIAL CREW PROGRAM –2 COMPANIES: BOEING, SIERRA NEVADA CORPORATION SPACE SYSTEMS & SPACEX –POTENTIALLY TRANSPORT CREW MEMBERS FROM UNITED STATES LAUNCH SITES TO ISS –APRIL 2014: SPACEX COMMERCIAL DRAGON RESUPPLY SHIP DOCKS WITH ISS

10. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 10 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Next for Manned Space Programs?

11. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 11 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Next for Manned Space Programs? X-38 (B-52 DROP TO PARAFOIL LANDING)

12. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 12 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Next for Manned Space Programs? NASA X-51A "WAVERIDER“ MAY 27 2010: ~ 200 seconds, up to ~ Mach 5 and ~ 70,000 feet MAY 3 2013: 240 seconds, Mach 5.1 at 60,000 feet

13. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 13 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Next for Manned Space Programs? EUROPEAN SPACE AGENCY (ESA) ARIANE 5 LAUNCH VEHICLE UNMANNED-- BUT COULD BE EXPANDED

14. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 14 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Next for Manned Space Programs? RUSSIAN “PROTON” LAUNCH VEHICLE

15. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 15 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Next for Manned Space Programs? NEW “ANGARA” RUSSIAN MANNED LAUNCH VEHICLES –ANNOUNCED BY VLADIMIR PUTIN JULY OF 2013 SCHEDULED FOR 2018-2020

16. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 16 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Next for Manned Space Programs? CHINESE “LONG MARCH” 2F VEHICLE –SHENZHOU CAPSULE LAUCHER CHINESE “LONG MARCH” 7 VEHICLE IN DEVELOPMENT

17. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 17 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Next for Manned Space Programs? INDIAN “POLAR SATELLITE LAUNCH VEHICLE” PSLV UNMANNED-- BUT PROTOTYPE FOR FUTURE MANNED BOOSTERS

18. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 18 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Next for Manned Space Programs? PREDICTION FOR THE FUTURE –IN YOUR PRESENTER’S HUMBLE (AND EVER SO UNBIASED!) OPINION –U.S. WILL (IN THE SHORT TERM): CONTINUE IN UNMANNED SPACE, BUT WITH INCREASING FOREIGN COMPETITION CONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE PRIVATE FUNDING FOR UNMANNED SYSTEMS, WITH SOME COMMERCIALIZATION OF MANNED SPACE-- BUT WITH LITTLE GOVERNMENT FUNDING –CUT-OFF USE of RUSSIAN LAUNCHERS BUT SPECTER OF COMPETITION FROM ASIAN COUNTRIES WILL STIMULATE RESURGENCE OF NATIONAL PRIDE SOMEWHERE AFTER YEAR 2017-TO-2020

19. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 19 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Next for Manned Space Programs? PREDICTION FOR THE FUTURE (CONTINUED) –FACT OF LIFE #3: A STRONG, COHERENT CONSTITUENCY IS ESSENTIAL U.S. TYPICALLY PERFORMES STRONGLY WHEN STIMULATED BY FEAR OF FOREIGN DOMINATION –OFTEN VILIFIES OTHER COUNTRIES OUT OF FEAR INCREASED PUBLIC SUPPORT DUE TO PERCEIVED THREAT OF RUSSIANS AND CHINESE AFTER 2020 –AFTER WARS IN AFGHANISTAN AND IRAQ NO LONGER A HEAVY DRAIN ON ECONOMY

20. SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT PAGE 20 Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Next for Manned Space Programs? PREDICTION FOR THE FUTURE (CONTINUED) –FACT OF LIFE #5: BEST TECHNICAL SOLUTION OFTEN NOT BEST POLITICAL SOLUTION POLITICAL “VALUE” OF MANNED SPACE WILL CHANGE BASED ON TWO FACTORS: –PERCEIVED THREAT OF FOREIGN DOMINATION –NEED TO REVIVE HIGH-TECH AEROSPACE JOBS NASA FOCUS PRIMARILY ON AERONAUTICS AND UNMANNED SPACE EXPLORATION –SOME MANNED SPACE FOR SPACE STATION SUPPORT DOD (AIR FORCE) TO ADD CAPABILITY FOR MANNED SPACE WITH MILITARY MISSIONS –DISPOSABLE “SPACE PLANE” ON TOP OF AN EXISTING MILITARY BOOSTER –ALSO CONTINUING EFFORT IN SATELLITES