1. African Adaptation UNDP Accra

2. Model Max P*Q(C,I) – R*I P*dQ(C)/dI = R Marginal benefit of inputs is sensitive to climate Which crop is most productive depends on climate

3. Crop Switching temperature Yield (kg/ha) wheat corn soybean millet

4. Data 11 African countries Crops grown Livestock species chosen Climate Control variables

5. Methodology Logit regression Crop choice (across major crops) regressed on climate and control variables Livestock choice regressed on climate and control variables Holding control variables constant, estimate how temperature and precipitation affect choice

6. Functional form Pr i =exp(B i X i )/(1-∑exp(B k X k )) BX=b0+b1T+b2T 2 +b3P+b4P 2 +b5Z

7. Livestock Switching in Africa

10. Forecast CCC Scenario Start with original climate and estimate frequency sheep chosen Use CCC climate scenario and estimate new frequency of sheep chosen

11. Current allocation of African Sheep

12. African Sheep with CCC climate