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Hydrologic Research Center CPASW March 23, 2006 Incorporating Climate Variability Uncertainty.

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Presentation on theme: "Hydrologic Research Center CPASW March 23, 2006 Incorporating Climate Variability Uncertainty."— Presentation transcript:

1 Hydrologic Research Center http://www.hrc-lab.org EShamir@hrc-lab.orghttp://www.hrc-lab.org CPASW March 23, 2006 Incorporating Climate Variability Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning for the Upper Santa Cruz River. Eylon Shamir Hydrologic Research Center 12780 High Bluff Drive suite 250 San Diego, CA 92130 Tel: (858) 794 2726 www.hrc-web.org

2 Hydrologic Research Center http://www.hrc-lab.org EShamir@hrc-lab.orghttp://www.hrc-lab.org Project  Researchers:  Konstantine Georgakakos, HRC Director  Eylon Shamir, HRC  Nicholas Graham, HRC  Jianzhong Wang, HRC  David Meko, The Tree-Ring Research Laboratory, The University of Arizona In cooperation with Arizona Department of Water Resources :  Frank Corkhill, Alejandro Barcenas, Frank Putman, Gretchen Erwin and Keith Nelson.  Sponsored by, Arizona Department of Water Resources Contract No. 2005-2568

3 Hydrologic Research Center http://www.hrc-lab.org EShamir@hrc-lab.orghttp://www.hrc-lab.org Mexico U.S Santa Cruz River Precipitation and Streamflow gauges Santa Cruz Headwater

4 Hydrologic Research Center http://www.hrc-lab.org EShamir@hrc-lab.orghttp://www.hrc-lab.org The Study Objectives l Develop a modeling system that produces likely future streamflow scenarios at the Nogales USGS Gauge site. l Integrate the future streamflow scenarios with a groundwater model l Evaluate the future streamflow – groundwater response in various schemes of water consumptions.

5 Hydrologic Research Center http://www.hrc-lab.org EShamir@hrc-lab.orghttp://www.hrc-lab.org Zoom into the study area Data Analysis Area Area of Interest

6 Hydrologic Research Center http://www.hrc-lab.org EShamir@hrc-lab.orghttp://www.hrc-lab.org Landscape

7 Hydrologic Research Center http://www.hrc-lab.org EShamir@hrc-lab.orghttp://www.hrc-lab.org Trends in summer (Jul-Aug) flow Rain Flow Rain Flow Number of Events Normalized Total Summer Flow Pool and Coes (1999) found similar trend in Charleston gauge –San Pedro

8 Hydrologic Research Center http://www.hrc-lab.org EShamir@hrc-lab.orghttp://www.hrc-lab.org Variability in Monthly Flow Change in monthly flow variability since the 1970s Average monthly flow as a function of time Variability of monthly flow as a function of time 1936 Years 2003 Histograms

9 Hydrologic Research Center http://www.hrc-lab.org EShamir@hrc-lab.orghttp://www.hrc-lab.org Nogales precipitation Vs. climatic indices Correlations with Nogales precipitation (1915-2000). NINO3PDOARIZ. DIV. 7 WINTER0.530.270.94 DRY0.110.220.70 SUMMER-0.060.090.53 OCTOBER-0.03-0.090.87 Only the winter flow in Nogales is correlated with El–Niño Precipitation (inches) Nino SST Anomaly (°C) Nogales Annual Precipitation Vs. NINO3 SST Anomaly (1915-2000) R=0.53 Climate Divisions

10 Hydrologic Research Center http://www.hrc-lab.org EShamir@hrc-lab.orghttp://www.hrc-lab.org Simulation of Precipitation Vs. Streamflow  Precipitation (Pros) l Better linked to climatic forcing and global circulation l Less affected by geomorphological changes and human activity in regional scale. l Independent of the basin antecedent condition Precipitation (Cons) l Point measurement rather than areal measurement that contributes to the flow. l Requires a model to transform into streamflow

11 Hydrologic Research Center http://www.hrc-lab.org EShamir@hrc-lab.orghttp://www.hrc-lab.org Winter Hourly Precipitation (Dec 68- Feb 69) Summer Hourly Precipitation (Jul 69- Aug 69) Precipitation events Precipitation clusters Clusters inter-arrival time Stochastic Precipitation model components Winter

12 Hydrologic Research Center http://www.hrc-lab.org EShamir@hrc-lab.orghttp://www.hrc-lab.org The Modeling Scheme

13 Hydrologic Research Center http://www.hrc-lab.org EShamir@hrc-lab.orghttp://www.hrc-lab.org Days Discharge (cfs) Winter (1/4/95) Summer (8/27/99) Winter Summer Summer and winter properties Model of the watershed The model should maintain the special characteristics of the seasons

14 Hydrologic Research Center http://www.hrc-lab.org EShamir@hrc-lab.orghttp://www.hrc-lab.org Total Seasonal Flow Seasonal division: Winter: November-March Spring: April–June Summer: July-September Fall: October Total Seasonal Flow (ft 3 )

15 Hydrologic Research Center http://www.hrc-lab.org EShamir@hrc-lab.orghttp://www.hrc-lab.org Evaluation of the simulated streamflow Annual Daily Seasonal Percentiles Transformed Box-Cox Daily Flow

16 Hydrologic Research Center http://www.hrc-lab.org EShamir@hrc-lab.orghttp://www.hrc-lab.org Precipitation estimates from tree-rings Current record Reconstructed by, David Meko, The Tree-Ring Research Laboratory, The University of Arizona

17 Hydrologic Research Center http://www.hrc-lab.org EShamir@hrc-lab.orghttp://www.hrc-lab.org Winter flow categories Precipitations quartiles of the tree rings 1 st 2 nd 3 rd 4 th Wet0000.625 Medium0.50.690.750.375 Dry0.50.310.250 Streamflow scenarios forced by the tree-ring reconstructed precipitations

18 Hydrologic Research Center http://www.hrc-lab.org EShamir@hrc-lab.orghttp://www.hrc-lab.org Highway 82 Arizona Mexico International Wastewater Treatment Plant Precipitation gauge Precipitation gauge Streamflow gauge Potrero creek Santa Cruz River Well 1 Well 2 Well 3 Well 4 Well 5 Well 6Well 7 Well 8 Well 9 Groundwater Microbasins

19 Hydrologic Research Center http://www.hrc-lab.org EShamir@hrc-lab.orghttp://www.hrc-lab.org Red –AZDWR MODFLOW MODEL Blue- HRC Simplified model Groundwater Model Development

20 Hydrologic Research Center http://www.hrc-lab.org EShamir@hrc-lab.orghttp://www.hrc-lab.org Model Comparison with index-wells Point to area

21 Hydrologic Research Center http://www.hrc-lab.org EShamir@hrc-lab.orghttp://www.hrc-lab.org How can the model output be used? Time Flow Ensemble of possible scenarios Threshold Water consumption Well Groundwater Storage Chance to drop bellow the t-hold Aquifer Risk Analysis

22 Hydrologic Research Center http://www.hrc-lab.org EShamir@hrc-lab.orghttp://www.hrc-lab.org Various water consumption scenarios

23 Hydrologic Research Center http://www.hrc-lab.org EShamir@hrc-lab.orghttp://www.hrc-lab.org Ensemble with 100 realizations Ensemble with 1000 realizations Consecutive monthly stress Consecutive Months Below 50%

24 Hydrologic Research Center http://www.hrc-lab.org EShamir@hrc-lab.orghttp://www.hrc-lab.org Risk Assessment Using Tree Ring Winter Precipitation Estimate

25 Hydrologic Research Center http://www.hrc-lab.org EShamir@hrc-lab.orghttp://www.hrc-lab.org Future Challenges  The use of risk analysis as exemplified in this work in collaboration with regional officials and agencies to establish policy regarding regional development.  Incorporation of climate change scenarios to possibly improve the generation of future streamflow ensembles.  Application in other semi-arid or arid regions

26 Hydrologic Research Center http://www.hrc-lab.org EShamir@hrc-lab.orghttp://www.hrc-lab.org http://www.hrc-lab.org/projects/dsp_projectSubPage.php?subpage=santacruz  Project Report:

27 Hydrologic Research Center http://www.hrc-lab.org EShamir@hrc-lab.orghttp://www.hrc-lab.org Precipitation Evaluation Medium Summer Red –Observed Blue -Simulated

28 Hydrologic Research Center http://www.hrc-lab.org EShamir@hrc-lab.orghttp://www.hrc-lab.org Nogales Gauge

29 Hydrologic Research Center http://www.hrc-lab.org EShamir@hrc-lab.orghttp://www.hrc-lab.org Minimum Cluster Inter-Arrival Time Coefficient of Variation of Inter Arrival Period Restrepo-Posada and Eagleson (1982)

30 Hydrologic Research Center http://www.hrc-lab.org EShamir@hrc-lab.orghttp://www.hrc-lab.org  Regional simulation using mm5 atmospheric model  6X6 km, 20 second (output at 1 hour) for January 1979, 1991, and 1992  Lateral Boundary layers are from the NCEP ETA re-analysis data 32X32 km 3 hour Precipitation distribution from regional atmospheric modeling Wind Speed and Direction

31 Hydrologic Research Center http://www.hrc-lab.org EShamir@hrc-lab.orghttp://www.hrc-lab.org Precipitation areal distribution  How is precipitation distributed over the area? With the lack of dense raingauges, we used:  Regional atmospheric model with high spatial resolution l Analysis was done for 6 historical winter storms

32 Hydrologic Research Center http://www.hrc-lab.org EShamir@hrc-lab.orghttp://www.hrc-lab.org Areal distribution of precipitation for 6 winter storms from regional atmospheric model

33 Hydrologic Research Center http://www.hrc-lab.org EShamir@hrc-lab.orghttp://www.hrc-lab.org Stochastic Hourly Precipitation Model

34 Hydrologic Research Center http://www.hrc-lab.org EShamir@hrc-lab.orghttp://www.hrc-lab.org, A ≤ x, and B > 0 Exponential Distribution

35 Hydrologic Research Center http://www.hrc-lab.org EShamir@hrc-lab.orghttp://www.hrc-lab.org Exponential Distribution cont. B=0.1 B=0.4 Exponential Distribution

36 Hydrologic Research Center http://www.hrc-lab.org EShamir@hrc-lab.orghttp://www.hrc-lab.org Days Discharge (cfs) Winter (1/4/95) Summer (8/27/99) Processes-based Conceptual Model Hourly precipitation to mean daily flow

37 Hydrologic Research Center http://www.hrc-lab.org EShamir@hrc-lab.orghttp://www.hrc-lab.org Seasonal Daily flow of the three moments simulations are from 100 realizations 100 year each. (mean and the standard deviation of the moments from the 100 realizations).

38 Hydrologic Research Center http://www.hrc-lab.org EShamir@hrc-lab.orghttp://www.hrc-lab.org Ensemble of 100 realizations using the tree ring reconstruction of precipitation

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