2. Hurricane Protection In Southern Louisiana

3. Briefing Outline 1. Authority LACPR 2. December 2005 Workshop 3. Surge and Wave Modeling System 4. JPM-OS 5. List of External Scientist and Academics 6. List of Participating Organizations 7. Questions?

4. Public Law 109-103 Energy and Water Development Appropriations Act, 2006 DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY Corps of Engineers--Civil The following appropriations shall be expended under the direction of the Secretary of the Army and the supervision of the Chief of Engineers for authorized civil functions of the Department of the Army pertaining to rivers and harbors, flood control, shore protection and storm damage reduction, aquatic ecosystem restoration, and related purposes. INVESTIGATIONS ….That using $8,000,000 of the funds provided herein, the Secretary of the Army, acting through the Chief of Engineers, is directed to conduct a comprehensive hurricane protection study at full Federal expense to develop and present a full range of flood, coastal and hurricane protection measures exclusive of normal policy considerations for south Louisiana and the Secretary shall submit a feasibility report for short-term protection within 6 months of enactment of this Act, interim protection within 12 months of enactment of this Act and long-term comprehensive protection within 24 months of enactment of this Act: Provided further, That the Secretary shall consider providing protection for a storm surge equivalent to a Category 5 hurricane within the project area and may submit reports on component areas of the larger protection program for authorization as soon as practicable: Provided further, That the analysis shall be conducted in close coordination with the State of Louisiana and its appropriate agencies.

5. …..long-term comprehensive protection within 24 months of enactment of this Act: Provided further, That the Secretary shall consider providing protection for a storm surge equivalent to a Category 5 hurricane within the project area and may submit reports on component areas of the larger protection program for authorization as soon as practicable…….

6. Category 1 74 – 95 mph winds Category 2 96 – 110 mph winds Category 3 111 – 130 mph winds Category 4 131 – 155 mph winds Category 5 155+ mph winds Saffir-Simpson Scale

7. Hurricane Workshop ERDC Vicksburg, MS Agenda for 20-21 Dec 2005 Day 1 0800 Welcome - ERDC 0810 Introductions – All 0820 Agenda and Meeting Objectives – MVN Stutts 0830 New Orleans Flood Protection System and it’s design – MVN Anderson and Hote 0900 Impact of Katrina - MVN N. Powell 0930 Break 0945 Enhanced Protection Plan – MVN Anderson and Axtman 1015 Dutch Sea Defense and the Role of Models – DELFT Stelling 1100 Climatology of Hurricane Landfalls and Analysis & Forecasting Hurricane Structure - NOAA Beven 1145 Lunch 1235 Experienced Hurricane Windfields - NOAA M. Powell 1305 Wave Prediction in SE Louisiana - ERDC Smith 1335 Storm Surge Prediction in SE Louisiana – UND Westerink 1405 Storm Surge Prediction (SLOSH) – NWS Shaffer 1435 Break 1450 Nearshore Waves and Wave Effects on Storm Impact – UNESCO- IHE Roelvink 1520 Estimating Storm Frequency - ERDC Resio and Vickery 1550 Comments on proposed plan concepts and ideas for providing protection plans to be examined Part 1 1700 End day 1

8. Day 2 0800 Review Workshop Objectives - MVN Stutts Rest of Workshop Facilitated by Ebersole 0815 Level of Protection and Proposed Plan 0845 Recommendations for design approach 0915 Hurricane Intensity and Frequency Estimating 0945 Wind and Pressure Prediction 1015 Break Hurricane Workshop ERDC Vicksburg, MS Agenda for 20-21 Dec 2005

9. Conclusions from Workshop Needs Identified Risk Assessment Group –RAG Surge and Wave Modeling Group Innovative Design Group ITR Group

10. Modeling System Wind Field – Wind Stresses Surge ModelWave Models TC96 PBL Offcoast Waves: WAM Nearshore Waves: STWAVE Unified Grid Surge model: ADCIRC Coupling Local Scale Waves: Boussinesq - Parametric IPET FEMA LaCPR MsCIP

11. ADCIRC Grid Domain WAM Model Domain LaCPR and MsCIP

12. STWAVE Model Domains

13. Peak Surge and Waves

14. Hurricane Surge Parameterization Conclusions Storm size is important, especially for: Mildly-sloping regions Very intense storms Demonstrated: Surge(large, moderately intense) > Surge(small, very intense) Category 3 Rmax = 47 km (25 nmi) cp = 919 mb peak surge = 7.5 – 8.5 m (24.5 – 27.8 ft) Category 5 Rmax = 22 km (12 nmi) cp = 910 mb peak surge = 6.4 – 6.9 m (21 – 22.6 ft) Irish

15. IRISH et al. (JPO – with revisions) showed that major response was Dp –Rp plane, not just storm intensity.

16. New JPM: The estimation of the surge CDF includes a “random” deviation term added to the modeled values. In this way we can retain important aspects of variations that would add too many dimensions to the integral to make it practical. After some analyses of different types both Toro and Resio ended up using about 150 storms in this sum and similar magnitude epsilon terms. Later described in The White Paper as the JPM-OS, Joint Probability – Optimal Sampling Technique

17. Parameter Space –Cp = 900 to 960 mb –Rmax = 6 to 35.6 nm –Vf = 6 to 17 knots Storms LaCPR & MsCIP MsCIP

26. QUESTIONS?