1. Maryland’s Process for Projecting Enrollments in Higher Education Michael J. Keller Director of Policy Analysis and Research Maryland Higher Education Commission

2. The Maryland Higher Education Commission prepares a set of 10-year projections each year for the public colleges and universities in the State. Credit enrollments for each two- and four-year institution with breakdowns by full- and part- time undergraduates and, as applicable, full- and part-time graduate and professional students Credit enrollments for each two- and four-year institution with breakdowns by full- and part- time undergraduates and, as applicable, full- and part-time graduate and professional students Projected full-time equivalent students determined from the headcount by a mathematical formula Projected full-time equivalent students determined from the headcount by a mathematical formula Full-time equivalent noncredit continuing education enrollments at community colleges Full-time equivalent noncredit continuing education enrollments at community colleges

3. Use of the projections Facilities planning Facilities planning Articulation Articulation Funding priorities Funding priorities Development of growth plan for postsecondary education in the State Development of growth plan for postsecondary education in the State

4. Importance of the projections The Commission is asked by the Governor’s Budget Office and the General Assembly to do an independent set of projections to those supplied by the institutions. The Commission is asked by the Governor’s Budget Office and the General Assembly to do an independent set of projections to those supplied by the institutions. The Commission’s projections are accepted by policy makers as the State’s “official” forecasts of higher education enrollments. The Commission’s projections are accepted by policy makers as the State’s “official” forecasts of higher education enrollments.

5. Enrollment projections are: one-third science, one-third science, one-third art, one-third art, and one-third politics. and one-third politics.

6. The Science The Commission employs a “top down” approach in projecting credit enrollments. The Commission employs a “top down” approach in projecting credit enrollments. It uses a statistical model to forecast the number of credit students at all community colleges and all public four-year institutions. These figures, in turn, are distributed among the campuses in an accompanying process. It uses a statistical model to forecast the number of credit students at all community colleges and all public four-year institutions. These figures, in turn, are distributed among the campuses in an accompanying process. There are separate, but similar, methodologies for projecting the credit enrollments at the two- and four-year institutions There are separate, but similar, methodologies for projecting the credit enrollments at the two- and four-year institutions The projections of noncredit community college students are handled with a somewhat different approach. The projections of noncredit community college students are handled with a somewhat different approach.

7. Assumptions – Community College Projections Enrollments of Maryland residents can be forecasted by matching the historical relationship between the State’s population and past in-state enrollments, then incorporating population projections for the State. Enrollments of Maryland residents can be forecasted by matching the historical relationship between the State’s population and past in-state enrollments, then incorporating population projections for the State. The ratio of in-state to out-of-state students in Maryland will remain relatively constant. The ratio of in-state to out-of-state students in Maryland will remain relatively constant. Tuition increases will have an impact on full- and part-time community college enrollments. Tuition increases will have an impact on full- and part-time community college enrollments. The number of full-time students will be affected by trends in high school graduates. The number of full-time students will be affected by trends in high school graduates. The number of part-time students will be impacted by changes in the per-capita disposable income, calculated in constant dollars, of Maryland residents. The number of part-time students will be impacted by changes in the per-capita disposable income, calculated in constant dollars, of Maryland residents.

8. Assumptions – Public Four-Year Campus Projections Enrollments of Maryland residents can be forecasted by matching the historical relationship between the State’s population and past in-state enrollments, then incorporating population projections for the State. Enrollments of Maryland residents can be forecasted by matching the historical relationship between the State’s population and past in-state enrollments, then incorporating population projections for the State. The ratio of in-state to out-of-state students in Maryland will remain relatively constant. The ratio of in-state to out-of-state students in Maryland will remain relatively constant. The number of full-time undergraduates will be affected by trends in high school graduates and the number of full-time students enrolling at the State’s community colleges. The number of full-time undergraduates will be affected by trends in high school graduates and the number of full-time students enrolling at the State’s community colleges. The number of part-time undergraduates will be impacted by changes in the disposable per capita income, calculated in constant dollars, of Maryland residents. The number of part-time undergraduates will be impacted by changes in the disposable per capita income, calculated in constant dollars, of Maryland residents.

9. Assumptions – Noncredit Continuing Education Enrollments at Community Colleges The adult population 20 years of age or older in a community college’s county or service area is a key predictor of noncredit continuing education enrollments. The adult population 20 years of age or older in a community college’s county or service area is a key predictor of noncredit continuing education enrollments. Continuing education enrollments can be forecasted by matching the historical relationship between noncredit FTE enrollments at each college and the adult population in the above age group in each college’s respective county or service area to the population projections in each location. Continuing education enrollments can be forecasted by matching the historical relationship between noncredit FTE enrollments at each college and the adult population in the above age group in each college’s respective county or service area to the population projections in each location.

10. A linear regression analysis encompassing these assumptions was used to produce the projections.

11. How Well Have We Done Recently ? Enrollment Category 2004 Projections 2004 Actual Accuracy Rate Community Colleges All Credit Students120,096118,94799.0% Non-Credit FTE 21,921 21,02495.9% 4-Year Campuses All Undergraduates100,725101,76999.0% All Grad/Prof 36,097 35,86499.4% All Students136,822137,63399.4% All Public Campuses All Undergraduates220,821220,71699.97% All Credit Students256,918256,58099.9%

12. How Well Have We Done Over the Long Term? Enrollment Category 1996 Projections 2004 Actual Accuracy Rate Community Colleges All Students122,615118,94797.0% 4-Year Campuses All Undergraduates 91,379101,76989.8% All Grad/Prof 31,871 35,86488.9% All Students125,250137,63391.0% All Public Campuses All Undergraduates215,994220,71697.9% All Credit Students247,865256,58096.6%

13. Methods for Distribution of Credit Enrollments Among Institutions Factor Community Colleges 4 –Year Campuses Institution-Provided ProjectionsX Recent Market ShareXX Three-Year Enrollment GrowthXX Projected Growth in County Population X

14. For Copies of the Latest Enrollment Projections Report or More Information: www.mhec.state.md.us mkeller@mhec.state.md.us