1. Preparation of Control Strategies EGU Sector Clean Air Markets Division U.S. EPA Office of Air and Radiation 17 October 2007

2. 2 Brief Background on IPM How are EGU strategies prepared? –Base Case (CAIR/CAMR/CAVR) –Where are the cost-effective additional reductions possible? Regional programs Potential state policies? Geographic extent Projected NA areas –Other Impacts Overview

3. 3 Brief Background on IPM: What is IPM? IPM is a long-term capacity expansion and production costing model for analyzing the U.S. electric power sector EPA uses IPM to analyze emissions policies affecting the power sector IPM outputs are used in EPA’s air quality models IPM was used on –CAIR –CAMR –CAVR –Clear Skies Initiative Model Regions in IPM v3.0

4. 4 Brief background on IPM: IPM Structure

5. 5 CAIR Emission Caps* (million tons) 2009/2010 2015 Annual SO 2 3.7 2.6 (2010) Annual NO x 1.5 1.3 (2009) Seasonal NO x.58.48 (2009) *For the affected region. States controlled for fine particles (annual SO 2 and NO x ) States controlled for ozone (ozone season NO x ) States controlled for both fine particles (annual SO 2 and NO x ) and ozone (ozone season NO x ) CAIR Geographic Coverage States not covered by CAIR – sources are required to meet Regional Haze requirements Regional Policy already in place: Base Case (CAIR/CAMR/CAVR )

6. 6 Annual NO x : State-Level Emissions

7. 7 2020 Summer Season EGU NOx Emissions under CAIR/CAMR/CAVR by Fuel Type Controlled Coal: Emission rate < 0.15 lb/MMBtu or SCR or SNCR Controlled Gas: Emission rate < 0.1 lb/Mmbtu for CC, < 0.2 lb/Mmbtu for CT,< 0.15 lb/Mmbtu for O/G Steam Controlled Oil: Emission rate < 0.15 lb/MMBtu

8. 8 2020 Summer Season Uncontrolled Coal EGU NOx Emissions under CAIR/CAVR/CAVR; Adding Further Controls Controlled Coal: Emission rate < 0.15 lb/MMBtu or SCR or SNCR Level of NOx from Uncontrolled Coal Units under CAIR/CAMR/CAVR) Level of NOx when SCR is added to uncontrolled coal

9. 9 2020 Retrofits

10. 10 Projected 8-Hr Ozone (ppb) for 2020_070a1 Learning Strategy 291 50 36 19 17 4 6 Number of Counties Legend < 70.5 >= 70.5 to 73.0 >= 73.0 to 75.0 >= 75.0 to 77.0 >= 77.0 to 79.0 >= 79.0 to 81.0 >= 81.0 to 83.0 >= 83.0 to 85.0 >= 85.0 to 88.0 >= 88.0 5 2 2

11. 11 DRAFT: Deliberative. Do not Quote or Cite Preliminary Results. Data still in final QA review.

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13. 13 Other Impacts Cost of the policy Marginal cost Fuel prices Generation mix Wholesale electricity prices Retirements *2025 numbers are highly tentative due to more uncertainty in future years.

14. For More Information: www.epa.gov/airmarkets www.epa.gov/airmarkets/epa-ipm Kevin Culligan Serpil Kayin www.epa.gov/airmarkets/epa-ipm