1. Gaelle Gouarin OECD Trade and Agriculture Food chain network meeting Mobilizing the food chain for health OECD, PARIS, October 25-26 2012 Impacts on the agricultural sector of moving towards a ‘healthy diet’

2. OECD Trade & Agriculture 2 Impacts of moving towards a ‘healthy diet’ Measure impact on main agricultural sector aggregates of : –Scenario 1 : Reduction in total fat consumption following a comprehensive prevention strategy. –Scenario 2 : WHO dietary guideline target of saturated fat consumption at 10% or less of total calories Method: Simulations using the Aglink-Cosimo Model

3. OECD Trade & Agriculture 3 What is the AGLINK - COSIMO model? A partial equilibrium model covering the main agricultural markets (cereals, oilseeds, sugar, meats and dairy commodities), biofuels and fish & seafood A recursive-dynamic model (i.e. the market equilibrium in one year includes lagged variables) A Policy Specific Model: includes explicitly policy measures, such as import tariffs, tariff rate quotas, subsidies, etc.

4. OECD Trade & Agriculture 4 AGLINK endogenous European Union (15) Mexico Japan European Union (12) Canada Australia USA New Zealand Korea ArgentinaBrazilRussiaChina CHE NOR exogenous 30 countries 18 regional aggregates COSIMO Aglink-Cosimo country coverage

5. OECD Trade & Agriculture 5 Decrease in fat consumption following the implementation of a comprehensive prevention strategy Reduction in total fat consumption following a comprehensive prevention strategy.

6. OECD Trade & Agriculture 6 Implementation of a comprehensive prevention strategy : % decrease required in fat consumption COUNTRIES% decrease on average (2012-2021) Argentina-0.9 Australia-1.4 Brazil-0.9 Canada-1.2 Chile-0.9 China-0.8 European Union-1.1 India-0.7 Japan-0.8 Korea-0.8 Mexico-1.4 New Zealand-1.4 Russian Federation-0.8 United States-1.4

7. OECD Trade & Agriculture 7 Scenario 1 results : Impacts on world prices of a comprehensive prevention strategy

8. OECD Trade & Agriculture 8 Moving to WHO guidelines for saturated fats ( 10% of total calories) Calculate saturated fat consumption in grams for each country(based on FBS-FAO), aglink database and secretariat estimates Total Calories taken from national sources and assumptions applied over similar countries Select those countries whose consumption of saturated fat >=10 % of total calories

9. OECD Trade & Agriculture 9 Saturated fats as a share of total calories consumed

10. OECD Trade & Agriculture 10 SATURATED FAT REDUCTION needed to meet WHO guidelines

11. OECD Trade & Agriculture 11 Scenario2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total calories

12. OECD Trade & Agriculture 12 Scenario2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total calories

13. OECD Trade & Agriculture 13 Scenario 2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total calories

14. OECD Trade & Agriculture 14 Scenario results : saturated fat target 10% of total calories

15. OECD Trade & Agriculture 15 Scenario2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total calories

16. OECD Trade & Agriculture 16

17. OECD Trade & Agriculture 17 Scenario 2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total calories

18. OECD Trade & Agriculture 18 Scenario2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total calories

19. OECD Trade & Agriculture 19 Scenario 2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total calories

20. OECD Trade & Agriculture 20 Scenario 2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total calories

21. OECD Trade & Agriculture 21 Scenario 2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total calories

22. OECD Trade & Agriculture 22 www.oecd.org/agriculture Contact tad.contact@oecd.org OECD Trade and Agriculture