1. High resolution LMK-simulations (1 km) for extreme precipitation events in southern Germany J.W. Schipper Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research, University of Karlsruhe

2. Bad Herrenalb, 07.03.2007 Content EU-Project PREVIEW Simulations Event 2002 First evaluation of simulations Event 2005

3. Bad Herrenalb, 07.03.2007 EU-IP PREVIEW Volcanoes Fires Earthquakes Windstorms Man-made Landslides Floods Many risks exist...

4. Bad Herrenalb, 07.03.2007 EU-IP PREVIEW GEO-INFORMATION SERVICES FOR RISK MANAGEMENT ON A EUROPEAN LEVEL PREVIEW – PREVention, Information, and Early Warning

5. Bad Herrenalb, 07.03.2007 EU-IP PREVIEW

6. Bad Herrenalb, 07.03.2007 EU-IP PREVIEW PREVIEW: PREVention, Information, and Early Warning Large `Integrated Project´ (IP) of the European Union (EU) - 56 partner! Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK) is involved in the FLOODING part Short-Range Forecasting (until 3 days) Partner: IWS, BfG, LfU, IÖR, InfoTerra, Geomer Medium-Range Forecasting (between 3 and 10 days) Partner: DWD, ECMWF, ARPA-SIM, JRC, BfG,VITUKI, Delft-Hydraulics

7. Bad Herrenalb, 07.03.2007 Area of interest

8. Bad Herrenalb, 07.03.2007 Time period Period with heavy precipitation: August 2002 Precipitation amout 6-12 Aug. 2002 in Bavaria, Germany Rainfall amounts: 6th & 7th August 2002 139 mm (Ruhpolding) 133 mm (Aschau/Chiemgau) 10th August 2002 78 mm (Baiern-Kleinrohrsdorf) 62 mm (Kempten) Source: Hochwassernachrichtendienst, Bayerisches Landesamt für Wasserwirtschaft

9. Bad Herrenalb, 07.03.2007 Orography Max. height: 2.918 m 7000 m 3.235 m 2800 m 3.444 m 1000 m

10. Bad Herrenalb, 07.03.2007 Simulations 1000 mStationen 7000 m2800 mRadar August 2002 1 5 10 15 20 25 30 7000 m 2800 m 1000 m Rainfall rates mm

11. Bad Herrenalb, 07.03.2007 Simulations August 2002 1 5 10 15 20 25 30 7000 m 2800 m 1000 m Rainfall rates 1000 mStationen 7000 m2800 mRadar mm

12. Bad Herrenalb, 07.03.2007 Event 2002

13. Bad Herrenalb, 07.03.2007 Resolutions

14. Bad Herrenalb, 07.03.2007 Cross-section result for 12th August 2002

15. Bad Herrenalb, 07.03.2007 Cross-section result for 7th August 2002

16. Bad Herrenalb, 07.03.2007 Cross-section result for 7th August 2002

17. Bad Herrenalb, 07.03.2007 Comparisons

18. Bad Herrenalb, 07.03.2007 Heidke Skill Score observations truefalse simulationstrueab falsecd a: hit b: false alarm c: failure d: inverse hit C: total hits N: total events E: correct by chance

19. Bad Herrenalb, 07.03.2007 Heidke Skill Score Possible question: How well does my model perform on 12th August 2002? Results for 12th August 2002 (using a criterium of 10 mm/day): HSS 1000m = 0.21 HSS 2800m = 0.03 HSS 7000m = -0.01 A disadvantage is the arbitrarily chosen criterium of 10 mm/day.

20. Bad Herrenalb, 07.03.2007 Heidke Skill Score result for 12th August 2002

21. Bad Herrenalb, 07.03.2007 Heidke Skill Score result for 12th August 2002 1000 m resolution 2800 m resolution7000 m resolution

22. Bad Herrenalb, 07.03.2007 Heidke Skill Score result for 12th August 2002

23. Bad Herrenalb, 07.03.2007 20.08.2005 07:00 – 21.08.2005 06:0021.08.2005 07:00 – 22.08.2005 06:00 Event 2005

24. Bad Herrenalb, 07.03.2007 Aichstetten 20 0 Niederschlag [mm] Periode: 20. August 2005 0:00 bis 22. August 2005 23:00 Messungenmeteorologisches Modell Breitachklamm Wiblingen Kempten Event 2005

25. Bad Herrenalb, 07.03.2007 Summary Finished 10-day period in 2002 Finished 3-day period in 2005 Started first comparisons with measurement stations Comparisons with radar data needs to be done