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Jeffrey Keene Crocs, Inc. (CROX) – Designer, manufacturer, & retailer of footwear that is built with comfort on the mind.

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Presentation on theme: "Jeffrey Keene Crocs, Inc. (CROX) – Designer, manufacturer, & retailer of footwear that is built with comfort on the mind."— Presentation transcript:

1 Jeffrey Keene jkeene2@gsb.uchicago.edu Crocs, Inc. (CROX) – Designer, manufacturer, & retailer of footwear that is built with comfort on the mind.

2 Significant Turnaround Story 2 Crocs went public at $10.50 (adjusted for 2007 stock split) and traded up to $69 by October of 2007. However, the stock was trading at $1 just 13 months later. Since then, management has done a great job rebuilding the company. The stock now sits at $26. (In millions)2007A2008A Total Revenue$847 M$722 M Growth139%-15% Operating Margin28%-8% EBITDA Margin30%-6% Net Income$168 M-$62 M EPS$1.99-$0.75

3 Now A Fundamentally Different Company Went public offering less than 10 styles – built around its core clog product. Crocs now offers a large array of styles (over 250) – sandals, sneakers, flats, hiking, boots, and heels. 3

4 Croslite - A Competitive Advantage Since the beginning, Crocs has been about providing comfortable shoes. To meet this end, the firm created a proprietary material called Croslite – which is comfortable, lightweight, and odor- resistant. Competitors have been unable to create a meaningful alternative. The comfort that Croslite provides has allowed the company to be successful offering additional styles outside of its classic clog product. 4

5 Mindshare Crocs’ clog product have been one of the most discussed footwear offerings. Opponents hate the look while proponents love the comfort allowed. Crocs has a bit of a cult following – fans typically own multiple pairs and often look to the firm when they need a new shoe. Either way, the company is talked about frequently – a positive that has created significant brand awareness. 5

6 New Styles Resonating A number of different analysts have recently commented that sales are performing well above expectations ( as proved in this quarter’s results announced on Wednesday ). In particular, the newer translucents, sneakers, and sandals are leading the charge. The newly offered Chameleon color-changing kid’s shoes is supposedly off to a great start. 6

7 Amazon’s Best Selling Shoes Ranking OverallTop 4 pairs; 9 of the top 20; 18 of the top 50 Men’s3 of the top 5 and 5 of the top 20 Women’s2 of the top 4 and 6 of the top 20 Girl’sTop 4 pairs; 6 of top 7; 9 of top 20 Boy’sTop 3 pairs; 4 of top 5; 9 of top 20 7

8 Growth Opportunities Evolve the brand. Design innovative collections. Drive higher ASPs. Invest in wholesale growth – globally. Right partners, right regions. Strategically invest in direct to consumer – globally. Retail in the right locations. 8

9 Risks Fashion risk – demand changes would significantly disrupt Crocs’ model (albeit not as much as previously); also the company must be successful developing new styles. Competition – new comfort shoes are sure to be brought to market, especially if Crocs is able to continue to grow quickly. Inflation – can the company continue to be successful raising prices/watching inputs to counter inflationary pressures? Channel and retail expansion – management wants for it to be deliberate and successful, but will it be? 9

10 Recent Quarterly Performance 10 Revenue (in millions)EPS ActualExpectationGuidance ActualExpectationGuidance Q2 2011*296282280Beat$0.61$0.43 Beat Q1 2011227216215Beat$0.24$0.19 Beat Q4 2010179166165Beat$0.05$0.02 Beat Q3 2010216206205Beat$0.25$0.24$0.22 to $0.24Beat Q2 2010228221210 to 220Beat$0.37$0.22$0.18 to $0.22Beat Q1 2010167160155 to 160Beat$0.09$0.01$0.00Beat *Announced on Wednesday

11 Broad Base Growth 11

12 Financial Overview - Quarterly 12

13 Financial Overview - Annual (In millions)2007A2008A2009A2010A2011E2012E2013E Total Revenue$847 M$722 M$591 M$790 M$1,037 M$1,349 M$1,669 M Growth139%-15%-18%34%31%30%24% Gross Profit Margin59%42%39%54% Operating Margin28%-8%-7%11%16%18%20% EBITDA Margin30%-6%-1%15%20%22%24% Net Income$168 M-$62 M-$40 M$68 M$132 M$200 M$268 M EPS$1.99-$0.75-$0.47$0.78$1.44$2.06$2.60 Growth139%na 84%43%26% FCF-$48 M$17 M$43 M$74 M$140 M$210 M$275 M 13 Assumptions – 2012 revenue growth should benefit from full launch of Chameleons and translucents, increased supply of styles to Kohl’s, and the lack of a devastating earthquake in Japan – flat gross margins as they are already the highest in the footwear industry and will be difficult to increase given the higher costs of some of the newer styles and inflationary pressures – SGA should go down as a percentage of revenue as no new large infrastructure projects are needed and the number is spread over a larger base, leading to some operating margin expansion – tax rate is at the 20% mentioned on the most recent earnings call and share count is up slightly, in line with previous quarters.

14 Sensitivity Analysis 2012 Revenue Growth Operating Margin 10%20%30%40%50% 12% 1.131.231.331.431.54 14% 1.311.431.551.671.79 16% 1.501.641.771.912.05 18% 1.691.842.002.152.30 20% 1.882.052.222.392.56 22% 2.072.252.442.632.82 24% 2.252.462.662.873.07 14 2013 Revenue Growth Operating Margin 10%20%30%40%50% 12% 1.381.501.631.761.88 14% 1.611.761.902.052.19 16% 1.842.012.172.342.51 18% 2.072.262.452.632.82 20% 2.302.512.722.933.13 22% 2.532.762.993.223.45 24% 2.763.013.263.513.76 One additional percentage point of revenue growth adds an additional ~$0.01 to EPS in 2012 and 2013. One additional percentage point of operating margin adds an additional $0.09 to EPS in 2012 and $0.12 in 2013.

15 Valuation - 2011 15 *Short interest is 1.4 days.

16 Valuation - 2012 16


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