1. Matjaž Gams Jozef Stefan Institute, Slovenia Intelligent systems Intelligence? MPS, 28.10.20091

2. I. DEFINITIONS: Intelligent systems (scientific) Intelligent system is a system that learns during its existence. It senses its environment and learns, for each situation, which action permits it to reach its objectives. It continually acts, mentally and externally, and by acting reaches its objectives. To reach its objective it has to select its response. A simple way to select a response is to select one that was favorable in a similar previous situation. Engineering definition: more advanced than current ones.

3. Properties / Learning Learning Flexibility Adaptation Explanation Discovery (engineering – mouse?)

4. 12/19/2015 Definition AI - Wikipedia The intelligence of machines and the branch of computer science which aims to create it. Major AI textbooks define the field as "the study and design of intelligent agents." John McCarthy, who coined the term in 1956, defines it as "the science and engineering of making intelligent machines.“ (Turing first?) The field was founded on the claim that intelligence can be simulated by a machine. Artificial intelligence has been the subject of breathtaking optimism, has suffered stunning setbacks and is today an essential part of the technology industry, computer science and IS.

5. 12/19/2015 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Russell and Norvig ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE: A Modern Approach

6. 12/19/2015 Approaches to AI  Cybernetics and brain simulation  Traditional symbolic AI  Sub-symbolic AI  Intelligent agent paradigm  Integrating the approaches Kismet social robot

7. 12/19/2015 AI performance  optimal: it is not possible to perform better  strong super-human: performs better than all humans  super-human: performs better than most humans  sub-human: performs worse than most humans  For example, performance at checkers is optimal, performance at chess is super-human and nearing strong super-human, and performance at many everyday tasks performed by humans is sub-human.

8. II. INTELLIGENCE, SCIENCE, REAL LIFE, BUSINESS Intelligence = better performance, better prediction of future, (5 mil. y. cave man, 25% energy, improved performance - sex?, Evolution!! Now – low intelligence related to crime, unemployment...) Intelligence – evolutionary, one person, society, types of intelligence, knowledge, … Turing test: TT, TTT, TTTT... Imagination is more important than knowledge... (Albert Einstein) Interaction is more important than algorithms (Wegner, Gams) Albert EinsteinAlbert Einstein MPS, 15.7.20108

9. The world is not as it seems http://dis.ijs.si/mezi/pedagosko/matrix1.avi (+income, knowledge, health, live longer …) Cypher: Why oh why didn't I take the blue pill? http://dis.ijs.si/mezi/pedagosko/matrix2.avi (-less children, less sex …) http://dis.ijs.si/mezi/pedagosko/matrix1.avi http://dis.ijs.si/mezi/pedagosko/matrix2.avi http://dis.ijs.si/mezi/pedagosko/matrix1.avi http://dis.ijs.si/mezi/pedagosko/matrix2.avi MPS, 28.10.20099

10. Is the internet changing the way our brains work? Yes! (taxi driver) Do we use tools such as Web to increase our capabilities? Yes! Human + Web > Human Faster progress of mental capabilities! MPS, 28.10.200910

11. Science is truth - half empty glass - w. earn less, w. less intelligent, b. less intelligent, underdeveloped exploit rich, more/less intelligent generations (formal or real-life tests) - religious better mental health, creationism vs. evolution - provocative, debatable, fierce opposition - religion, politics, ideology - mass media (Finance) MPS, 28.10.200911

12. r MPS, 28.10.200912 Socio-economic status; better intellience helps

13. Can we predict future? An exampe of oil: - pessimistic - optimistic - not possible to predict short-term prices US oil production Can we predict future? An exampe of oil: - pessimistic - optimistic - not possible to predict short-term prices US oil production MPS, 28.10.200913

14. Can we predict future? An exampe of oil: - we can predict general trends! (several years ahead of...) The end of cheap oil – on general it will be more expensive There will be ups and downs In one or several decades max production - Interpretation-prediction: Peak oil is one of the real causes of our credit crisis, our banking crisis, our stock market declines and ultimately our economic problems (or is it neoliberalism and lack of governmental control) - What do you conclude about future progress from these assertions? MPS, 28.10.200914

15. Can we predict future? Demography: - we can predict general demography very well (it is easy in scientific terms) (several years ahead of...) S sedanjih 6.5 milijarde bo število ljudi naraslo na 9-10 milijard v letu 2050. do leta 2050. V 50 letih 2x manj. - What can you conclude from this? Can we predict future? Demography: - we can predict general demography very well (it is easy in scientific terms) (several years ahead of...) S sedanjih 6.5 milijarde bo število ljudi naraslo na 9-10 milijard v letu 2050. Po celinah bo stanje leta 2050 glede na 1900 naslednje: Afrika (133 milijonov, 1.9 milijarde) Azija (946 mio, 5.2 mil), Evropa (408 mio, 664 mio), Severna Amerika (82 mio, 455 mio). Leta 2050 na 1 Rusa 4 Američani in 20 Indijcev. Slovenci s sedanjih 1:4000 na 1:8000 do leta 2050. V 50 letih 2x manj. - What can you conclude from this? MPS, 28.10.200915

16. Slovenija, 2008 Vir: Eurostat, 2008; prikaz: Jože Sambt

17. Slovenija, 2028 Prebivalstvo (v tisočih) Sta ros t Mo ški Vir: Eurostat, 2008; prikaz: Jože Sambt

18. 19.12.2015 Projekcija Slovencev Projekcija Slovencev

19. 19.12.2015 Vrnitev na današnje število prebivalcev čez 100 let z linearnim zviševanjem rodnosti (8;13) – prikaz dolgoročnosti in zamika

20. Can we predict future? - What can you conclude from this? - Does science help us and how? Does intelligence help us and how? Rather bleak predictions? Physical or mental? MPS, 28.10.200920 Pr ebi val stv o (v tis oči h) StarostStarost MoškiMoški

21. Fantastic progress of knowledge! Intelligence is strongly related to success Science = truth! - half empty glass - avoid non-science by all means, be careful of interpretations You are at an advanced level and you will boldly go further MPS, 28.10.200921