1. Global Wood Industry Demand, Supply, Issues Phill Guay

2. Global Impacts Effects Less dramatic Longer term Larger Response Day to day – Run locally Investments – View globally Sales Consider offshore

3. Demand Drivers China Bio energy Carbon sequestering Alternatives

4. US Supply

5. Drivers Costs – Currency – Tariffs & Duties – Taxes – Transportation – Political

6. China Status Largest importer Globally flexible Largest exporter – Furniture – Flooring – Plywood Round Wood Imports

7. China Sources Million m3 Logs20022007 Russia14.825.4 PNG1.12.3 Malaysia2.11.3 Other6.38.1 Total24.337.1 Sawn wood20022007 Russia0.52.4 USA01.6 Canada01.0 Other7.64.8 Total8.19.8

8. Russian Supply Log Duty 2006 – 6.5% 2007 – 20% 2008 – 25% 2009 – 20 % 2010+ – 80% ??? Issues Duty Value added Legal logging Foreign capital

9. Global Plantations Millions of Hectares

10. Plantations China Share

11. Other Issues Legal logging Lacey Act EU initiatives Drivers Who is questioned Response Bio Energy Carbon Sequestering

12. Summary Canada has options – US – China – Japan – Korea Legal logging – Drives up stumpage Bio energy – Drives up pulp /small diameter China Remains largest – Import – Exporter More self sufficient Industry growth subsides Russia Great unknown

13. Conclusions Pricing Recovers Supply Moves globally Shifts to plantations Survivors Diversity sources Diversify outlets