1. StatiSense ® - Wale Micaiah © UTME 2013: Candidates’ Performance Analysis

2. UTME2013: 44.91% Scored 200 and Above

3. The Joint Admissions and Matriculation Board (JAMB) released the 2013 Unified Tertiary Matriculation Examination (UTME) results less than one week after it was conducted on the 27 th of April, 2013. In addition we will test if: “The general performance of candidates in this year’s examination shows remarkable improvement compared with last year” (as reported in some dailies) This study is carried out to analyze candidates’ performance in UTME 2013 as well as to establish – if any – any appreciable improvement and to what degree from previous performance.

5. A total of 1,735,729 candidates applied for UTME 2013; with the introduction of other testing modes – Computer Based Testing (CBT) and Dual (Computer/Paper) Based Testing (DBT) – below is the breakdown of candidates choices: Exams have been conducted for DBT and PPT already, totally 1,644,119 candidates. CBT exams will be conducted from May 18 th to June 1 st, 2013. TESTING MODEUSED Computer-Based Testing 91,610 Dual (Computer/Paper) Based Testing 15,008 Paper & Pencil Testing 1,629,111 Grand Total:1,735,729

6. UTME results are usually announced by the Registrar of JAMB, Prof. Dibu Ojerinde, in a news conference. Besides other information, the following are extracted and therefore used in this analysis:  No. of candidates that sat for UTME  No. that scored 200 and above  No. of UTME candidates scored below 200  No. of UTME candidates scored below 170  No. of UTME candidates scored 170 – 199  No. of UTME candidates scored 200 – 249  No. of UTME candidates scored 250 – 269  No. of UTME candidates scored 270 – 299  No. of UTME candidates scored above 300  No. of UTME candidates with invalid or incomplete results  No. of UTME results withheld for malpractice  No. of UTME results being investigated  Absent

7. No. of Candidates That Sat for UTME YearTotal Candidates% Increase 20091,182,381 - 20101,375,65216.35 20111,493,6048.57 20121,503,9310.69 20131,735,729*15.41 UTME started in 2010 following the merger of Monotechnics, Polytechnics and Colleges of Education (MPCE) and University Matriculation Examinations (UME). This could have contributed to the 16.35% increase in the number of applicants. Total applicant is 1,735,729 while 1,644,119 applicants have tested already having chosen PPT and DBT as testing modes. Hence, 1,644,110 will be used in subsequent calculations

8. No. of UTME Candidates Scored Below 170 Performance in this category is far better for 2013 compared to previous years. Only 14.02% scored less than 170, UTME 2012 being the worst – 22.36%. Year Total CandidateBelow 170% 20091,182,381 167,25114.15% 20101,375,652 -- 20111,493,604 201,79813.51% 20121,503,931 336,33022.36% 20131,644,119 230,50614.02% Evidently, these candidates do not qualify for PostUME in Universities, may be some Polytechnic/College of Education would accept them.

9. No. of UTME Candidates Scored 170 – 199 Year 2013 shows a great improvement from 2012; 34.75% scored between 170 and 199. However, UTME 2011 still emerged the best in this category with 42.93% of candidates. Year Total Candidate170 – 199% 20091,182,381 293,45124.82 20101,375,652 - - 20111,493,604 641,14342.93 20121,503,931 374,92024.93 20131,644,119 571,29834.75 This category is qualified for both College of Education and Polytechnic PostUME.

10. No. of UTME Candidates Scored Below 200 If most Universities decide to peg PostUME qualification criterion at 200 marks from UTME; 41% of candidates will not be qualified for University admission. Year Total CandidateBelow 200% 20091,182,381 460,70238.96 20101,375,652 -- 20111,493,604 842,85156.43 20121,503,931 711,25047.29 20131,644,119 674,78741.04

11. No. That Scored 200 and Above 44.91% of candidates obtained score greater than or equal to 200 (of 400). This is just a slight improvement from that of 2012 with 44.78%. Year Total Candidate Score ≥ 200% ( ≥ 200) 20091,182,381548,54346.39% 20101,375,652501,46336.45% 20111,493,604597,49440.00% 20121,503,931673,39444.78% 20131,644,119738,37544.91% In essence, less than 50% Candidates scored 200 and above in UTME 2013.

12. No. That Scored 200 and Above (contd.) Even though more candidates scored “200 and above” in 2013; there are lesser admission opportunity compared to that of 2012. 70.42% are eligible for PostUME if 200 is the benchmark for consideration as agianst 74.25% in 2012. Year Score ≥ 200 Carrying Capacity % of Carrying Capacity 2009548,543183,42033.44 2010501,463 -- 2011597,494400,00066.95 2012673,394500,00074.25 2013738,375520,00070.42

13. No. of UTME Candidates Scored 200 – 249 2013 candidates emerged the best in this category; generally, there is an appreciable increase from 2011 to 2013. Year Total Candidate200 – 249% 20091,182,381-- 20101,375,652-- 20111,493,604 495,426 33.17% 20121,503,931 601,151 39.97% 20131,644,119 704,622 42.86% About 43% of 1.7million candidates scored between 200 and 249!.

14. No. of UTME Candidates Scored 250 – 269 There is a sharp drop for 2013 candidates as only 2.01% achieved a score of 250 – 269. Year Total Candidate250 – 269% 20091,182,381-- 20101,375,652-- 20111,493,604 67,7324.53% 20121,503,931 71,3394.74% 20131,644,119 33,1152.01% This implies approximately only 2% of candidates scored 60% of 400 marks!.

15. No. of UTME Candidates Scored 270 – 299 Fewer number of candidates scored 270 – 279 compared to UTME 2011 and 2012. Year Total Candidate270 – 299% 20091,182,381-- 20101,375,652-- 20111,493,604 31,4442.11% 20121,503,931 9010.06% 20131,644,119 6280.04% There is a progressive and consistent drop in number of candidates in this category.

16. No. of UTME Candidates Scored 300 & Above Candidates in this category increased by over 300% from that of UTME 2012; however, UTME 2011 is still of great achievement compare to others. Year Total CandidateScore ≥ 300% 20091,182,381-- 20101,375,652-- 20111,493,604 2,8920.19363 20121,503,931 30.00020 20131,644,119 100.00061

17. No. of UTME Candidates With Invalid or Incomplete Results According to JAMB, those who are in this category are as a result of either multiple shading or no shading at all. Year Total Candidate Invalid or Incomplete Results % 20091,182,381-- 20101,375,652-- 20111,493,604 28,0691.88 20121,503,931 5,1610.34 20131,644,119 40,6922.48 Financially, this is 40,672 x 4,600 = N187,091,200 *A UTME form cost N4,600 [ without online registration ]

18. No. of UTME Results Withheld for Malpractice UTME 2013 malpractice figure is the lowest in the last five UTME. Technology though has aided candidates in this act, it also shows that JAMB has developed a more proven strategy to curbing malpractices in UTME. Year Total CandidateWithheld% 20091,182,381 23,8192.01 20101,375,652 20,7801.51 20111,493,604 15,1601.01 20121,503,931 27,2661.81 20131,644,119 12,1100.74

19. No. of UTME Results Being Investigated & Absent Year Total CandidateInvestigatedAbsent 20091,182,381 -- 20101,375,652 -98,857 20111,493,604 7,504- 20121,503,931 -- 20131,644,119 68,30947,974 Absent: 47,974 x 4,600 = N220,680,400

20. In Summary: Year Rated UTME Year BestWorst Scored Below 17020112012 Scored 170 – 19920092011 Scored Below 20020092011 Scored 200 and Above20132010 Scored 200 – 24920132011 Scored 250 – 26920122013 Scored 270 – 29920112013 Scored above 30020112012 Invalid or Incomplete Results20122013 Withheld for Malpractice20132009

21. Even though more candidate scored 200 and Above in UTME 2013 (44.91% = 738,375), in comparison with the available admission spaces, year 2012 is better as more candidates had higher chances of admission. From this analysis, we cannot say that this year’s examination shows “remarkable improvement compared with last year”. Though more candidates can compete for the 520,000 available admission spaces compared to last year 500,000, but the carrying capacity of 2012 (74.25%) gave opportunity to more candidates compared to 2013 (70.42%).

22. Nevertheless, it is still disturbing that for straight five years we have not been able to achieve 50% pass rate. UTME2013: 44.91% UTME2012: 44.78% UTME2011: 40.00% UTME2010: 36.45% UTME2009: 46.39% Scored 200 & Above

23. Freely share use and acknowledge the source – © Wale Micaiah Data source: -UTME result as announced in the dailies Analysis by: Wale Micaiah e: walegate@yahoo.comwalegate@yahoo.com m: 08078001800 b: walemicaiah.blog.com w. www.statisense.info

24. StatiSense ® - Wale Micaiah © Freely share, freely use and freely recognize the source – © Wale Micaiah Data source: -JAMB result as announced in the dailies Analysis by: Wale Micaiah e: walegate@yahoo.comwalegate@yahoo.com m: 08078001800 b: walemicaiah.blog.com w. www.statisense.info