1. 1 Business Opportunities from Carbon Reduction Strategies at the University of East Anglia IFAG NBS Summer School European Business Practice: A British Perspective 2 nd July / 2 nd August 2012 Keith Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) MA, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal

2. Background to Carbon Emissions Low Energy Buildings and their Management at UEA Low Carbon Energy Provision at UEA –Photovoltaics –CHP –Adsorption chilling –Biomass Gasification Coffee Break The Energy Tour Awareness issues and Management of Existing Buildings Energy Security Issues in the UK Carbon Reduction and Sustainable Construction Background to Carbon Emissions 2

3. 3 Climate Change – the need for Action Inter- Governmental Panel on Climate Change The Carbon Reduction Project The Stern Report Action taken by UEA CRed

4. 4 1979 2003 Climate Change: Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003 Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region NASA satellite imagery الصيف الجليد في القطب الشمالي تغطية المنطقة القطبيه ناسا الصور الفضاءيه Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.htmlhttp://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html 20% reduction in 24 years 20 ٪ تخفيض في 24 سنوات تغير المناخ اثار على الجليديه القطبيه كاب 1979 - 2003 4

5. Comparison of Discoveries and Demand We need to consider alternatives now 5

6. Current Energy Requirement AreaTotal DemandPopulationPer Capita World12.0 TW6000 M2.0 kW USA 3.0 TW 300 M10.0 kW Europe 2.0 TW 350 M5.7 kW UK 0.3 TW 60 M5.0 kW Energy in the 21 st Century Practically Achievable: Renewable Energy:- 0.01 TW - Tidal (i.e. 0.01 – 0.1 TW) 0.1 TW - Geothermal; OTEC; Biomass; Wastes 1 TW - Hydro; Wind; Waves 10TW – Solar The Future Population 9 – 10 billion? 1 TeraWatt (TW) = 1 billion kW Minimum~20TW Maximum~100TW Likely Range 30 – 40TW Life Span of Fossil Fuels Decades: Oil, Gas 235 U Tar Sands, Oil Shales Centuries: Coal, Geothermal, D-T Fusion 238 U, 232 Th Millenia: D – D Fusion Conservation is vital for a Sustainable Renewable Future in the Long Term

7. 7 Import Gap Energy Security is a potentially critical issue for the UK Gas Production and Demand in UK Only 50% now provided by UK sources. Warning issued on 17 th April 2012 that over-reliance on Norway and imported LNG from Qatar will lead to price rises by end of year Prices have become much more volatile since UK is no longer self sufficient in gas. UK no longer self sufficient in gas Langeled Line to Norway Oil reaches $130 a barrel Severe Cold Spells

8. 8 Per capita Carbon Emissions Japan UK How do UK and France compare with other countries? Why do some countries emit more CO 2 than others? What is the magnitude of the CO 2 problem? France

9. Carbon Factors for different modes of electricity generation Coal ~ 900 gms/kWh, oil ~ 800+ gms/kWh CCGT ~ 400 gms/kWh Nuclear ~ 10 gms/kWh: Overall UK: ~ 520 – 540 gms/kWh

10. 10 Carbon Emissions and Electricity

11. r 11 Electricity Generation i n selected Countries

12. Background to Carbon Emissions Low Energy Buildings and their Management at UEA Low Carbon Energy Provision at UEA –Photovoltaics –CHP –Adsorption chilling –Biomass Gasification Coffee Break The Energy Tour Awareness issues and Management of Existing Buildings Energy Security Issues in the UK Carbon Reduction and Sustainable Construction 12

13. 13 Original buildings Teaching wall Library Student residences

14. 14 Nelson Court Constable Terrace

15. 15 Low Energy Educational Buildings Elizabeth Fry Building ZICER Nursing and Midwifery School Medical School 15 Medical School Phase 2 Thomas Paine Study Centre

16. 16 The Elizabeth Fry Building 1994 Cost ~6% more but has heating requirement ~25% of average building at time. Building Regulations have been updated: 1994, 2002, 2006, but building outperforms all of these. Runs on a single domestic sized central heating boiler.

17. 17 Conservation: management improvements – Careful Monitoring and Analysis can reduce energy consumption. thermal comfort +28% User Satisfaction noise +26% lighting +25% air quality +36% A Low Energy Building is also a better place to work in

18. 18 ZICER Building Heating Energy consumption as new in 2003 was reduced by further 50% by careful record keeping, management techniques and an adaptive approach to control. Incorporates 34 kW of Solar Panels on top floor Low Energy Building of the Year Award 2005 awarded by the Carbon Trust.

19. 19 The ZICER Building - Description Four storeys high and a basement Total floor area of 2860 sq.m Two construction types Main part of the building High in thermal mass Air tight High insulation standards Triple glazing with low emissivity Structural Engineers: Whitby Bird

20. 20 The ground floor open plan office The first floor open plan office The first floor cellular offices

21. Operation of Main Building Mechanically ventilated that utilizes hollow core ceiling slabs as supply air ducts to the space Regenerative heat exchanger Incoming air into the AHU 21

22. Air enters the internal occupied space 空气进入内部使用空间 Operation of Main Building Air passes through hollow cores in the ceiling slabs 空气通过空心的板层 Filter 过滤器 Heater 加热器 22

23. Operation of Main Building Recovers 87% of Ventilation Heat Requirement. Space for future chilling 将来制冷的空间 Out of the building 出建筑物 Return stale air is extracted from each floor 从每层出来的回流空气 The return air passes through the heat exchanger 空气回流进入热交换器 23

24. 24 Operation of Regenerative Heat Exchangers Fresh Air Stale Air A B Stale air passes through Exchanger A and heats it up before exhausting to atmosphere Fresh Air is heated by exchanger B before going into building 24

25. 25 Fresh Air Stale Air B A Stale air passes through Exchanger B and heats it up before exhausting to atmosphere Fresh Air is heated by exchanger A before going into building After ~ 90 seconds the flaps switch over Operation of Regenerative Heat Exchangers 25

26. Fabric Cooling: Importance of Hollow Core Ceiling Slabs Hollow core ceiling slabs store heat and cool at different times of the year providing comfortable and stable temperatures Heat is transferred to the air before entering the room Slabs store heat from appliances and body heat. 热量在进入房间之前被传递到 空气中 板层储存来自于电器以及人体 发出的热量 Winter Day Air Temperature is same as building fabric leading to a more pleasant working environment Warm air 26

27. Heat is transferred to the air before entering the room Slabs also radiate heat back into room 热量在进入房间之前被传递到 空气中 板层也把热散发到房间内 Winter Night In late afternoon heating is turned off. Cold air Fabric Cooling: Importance of Hollow Core Ceiling Slabs Hollow core ceiling slabs store heat and cool at different times of the year providing comfortable and stable temperatures 27

28. Draws out the heat accumulated during the day Cools the slabs to act as a cool store the following day 把白天聚积的热量带走。 冷却板层使其成为来日的冷 存储器 Summer night night ventilation/ free cooling Cool air Fabric Cooling: Importance of Hollow Core Ceiling Slabs Hollow core ceiling slabs store heat and cool at different times of the year providing comfortable and stable temperatures 28

29. Slabs pre-cool the air before entering the occupied space concrete absorbs and stores heat less/no need for air-conditioning 空气在进入建筑使用空间前被 预先冷却 混凝土结构吸收和储存了热量 以减少 / 停止对空调的使用 Summer day Warm air Fabric Cooling: Importance of Hollow Core Ceiling Slabs Hollow core ceiling slabs store heat and cool at different times of the year providing comfortable and stable temperatures 29

30. Good Management has reduced Energy Requirements 800 350 Space Heating Consumption reduced by 57%

31. Background to Carbon Emissions Low Energy Buildings and their Management at UEA Low Carbon Energy Provision at UEA –Photovoltaics –CHP –Adsorption chilling –Biomass Gasification Coffee Break The Energy Tour Awareness issues and Management of Existing Buildings Energy Security Issues in the UK Carbon Reduction and Sustainable Construction 31

32. 32 ZICER Building Photo shows only part of top Floor Top floor is an exhibition area – also to promote PV Windows are semi transparent Mono-crystalline PV on roof ~ 27 kW in 10 arrays Poly- crystalline on façade ~ 6/7 kW in 3 arrays

33. All arrays of cells on roof have similar performance respond to actual solar radiation The three arrays on the façade respond differently Performance of PV cells on ZICER 33

34. 120 150 180 210 240 Orientation relative to True North 34

35. 35

36. 36 Arrangement of Cells on Facade Individual cells are connected horizontally As shadow covers one column all cells are inactive If individual cells are connected vertically, only those cells actually in shadow are affected.

37. 37 Use of PV generated energy Sometimes electricity is exported Inverters are only 91% efficient Most use is for computers DC power packs are inefficient typically less than 60% efficient Need an integrated approach Peak output is 34 kW

38. 38 Engine Generator 36% Electricity 50% Heat GAS Engine heat Exchanger Exhaust Heat Exchanger 11% Flue Losses3% Radiation Losses 86% efficient Localised generation makes use of waste heat. Reduces conversion losses significantly Conversion efficiency improvements – Building Scale CHP 61% Flue Losses 36% efficient

39. UEA’s Combined Heat and Power 3 units each generating up to 1.0 MW electricity and 1.4 MW heat

40. 40 Conversion efficiency improvements 1997/98 electricitygas oilTotal MWh198953514833 Emission factorkg/kWh0.460.1860.277 Carbon dioxideTonnes91526538915699 ElectricityHeat 1999/ 2000 Total site CHP generation exportimportboilersCHPoiltotal MWh204371563097757831451028263923 Emission factor kg/kWh -0.460.460.186 0.277 CO 2 Tonnes -44926602699525725610422 Before installation After installation This represents a 33% saving in carbon dioxide

41. 41 Conversion efficiency improvements Load Factor of CHP Plant at UEA Demand for Heat is low in summer: plant cannot be used effectively More electricity could be generated in summer

42. 42 Conversion Efficiency Improvements Condenser Evaporator Throttle Valve Heat rejected Heat extracted for cooling Normal Chilling Compressor High Temperature High Pressure Low Temperature Low Pressure

43. 43 Condenser Evaporator Throttle Valve Heat rejected Heat extracted for cooling High Temperature High Pressure Low Temperature Low Pressure Heat from external source Absorber Desorber Heat Exchanger W ~ 0 Adsorption Chilling Conversion Efficiency Improvements

44. 44 A 1 MW Adsorption chiller Adsorption Heat pump uses Waste Heat from CHP Will provide most of chilling requirements in summer Will reduce electricity demand in summer Will increase electricity generated locally Saves 500 – 700 tonnes Carbon Dioxide annually

45. The Future: Biomass Advanced Gasifier/ Combined Heat and Power Addresses increasing demand for energy as University expands Will provide an extra 1.4MW of electrical energy and 2MWth heat Will have under 7 year payback Will use sustainable local wood fuel mostly from waste from saw mills Will reduce Carbon Emissions of UEA by ~ 25% despite increasing student numbers by 250% 45

46. 46 Photo-Voltaics Advanced Biomass CHP using Gasification Efficient CHP Absorption Chilling Trailblazing to a Low Carbon Future

47. 47 19902006Change since 1990 2010Change since 1990 Students557014047+152%16000+187% Floor Area (m 2 )138000207000+50%220000+159% CO 2 (tonnes)1942021652+11%14000-28% CO 2 kg/m 2 140.7104.6-25.7%63.6-54.8% CO 2 kg/student34901541-55.8%875-74.9% Efficient CHP Absorption Chilling Trailblazing to a Low Carbon Future

48. Background to Carbon Emissions Low Energy Buildings and their Management at UEA Low Carbon Energy Provision at UEA –Photovoltaics –CHP –Adsorption chilling –Biomass Gasification Coffee Break The Energy Tour Starts from here at 10:55? Group A will visit ZICER Building first Group B will visit boiler house first Awareness issues Energy Security Issues in the UK Carbon Reduction and Sustainable Construction 48

49. 49 Target Day Results of the “Big Switch-Off” With a concerted effort savings of 25% or more are possible How can these be translated into long term savings? Awareness Raising and Effective Energy Management are cost effective solutions to save Energy, Reduce Carbon and save money

50. 50 How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO 2 looks like? UK emissions is equivalent to 5 hot air balloons per person per year. In the developing world, the average is under 1 balloon per person On average each person causes emission of CO 2 from energy used. UK ~9 tonnes of CO 2 each year. France ~6.5 tonnes Germany ~ 10 tonnes USA ~ 20 tonnes "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little." Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

51. 51 Raising Awareness in the Home A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost over £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO 2. 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon. Standby on electrical appliances 60+ kWh a year - 3000 balloons at a cost of over £6 per year Filling up with petrol (~£50 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour? 2.6 km At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya

52. 52 The Behavioural Dimension: Awareness raising Social Attitudes towards energy consumption have a profound effect on actual consumption Data collected from 114 houses in Norwich between mid November 2006 and mid March 2007 For a given size of household electricity consumption for appliances [NOT HEATING or HOT WATER] can vary by as much as 9 times. When income levels are accounted for, variation is still 6 times

53. Good Energy Management/Awareness can reduce consumption. Electricity Consumption in an Office Building in East Anglia 53 Consumption rose to nearly double level of early 2005. Malfunction of Air-conditioning plant. Extra fuel cost £12 000 per annum ~£1000 to repair fault Additional CO 2 emitted ~ 100 tonnes. Low Energy Lighting Installed

54. Background to Carbon Emissions Low Energy Buildings and their Management at UEA Low Carbon Energy Provision at UEA –Photovoltaics –CHP –Adsorption chilling –Biomass Gasification The Energy Tour Coffee Break Awareness issues Energy Security Issues in the UK Carbon Reduction and Sustainable Construction 54

55. Carbon sequestration either by burying it or using methanolisation to create a new transport fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s so cannot help short term. 55 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers/costs Energy Review 2002 New Predictions 9th May 2011 (*) Gas CCGT 0 - 80% (at present 45- 50%) Available now (but gas is running out – imported prices much higher) ~2p + 8.0p [5 - 11] nuclear fission (long term) 0 - 15% (France 80%) - (currently 18% and falling) new inherently safe designs - some development needed 2.5 - 3.5p 7.75p [5.5 - 10] nuclear fusionunavailable not available until 2040 at earliest not until 2050 for significant impact "Clean Coal" Coal currently ~40% but scheduled to fall Available now: Not viable without Carbon Capture & Sequestration 2.5 - 3.5p [7.5 - 15]p - unlikely before 2025 * Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2009 Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2020. ? 55

56. 56 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Future prices from * Renewable Energy Review – 9 th May 2011 Climate Change Committee 1.5MW Turbine At peak output provides sufficient electricity for 3000 homes On average has provided electricity for 700 – 850 homes depending on year ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) Predictions May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) * On Shore Wind ~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines] available now for commercial exploitation ~ 2+p

57. 57 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) Predictions May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) * On Shore Wind ~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines] available now for commercial exploitation ~ 2+p Scroby Sands has a Load factor of 28.8% - 30% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 2/3rds of demand of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich Climate Change Committee (9 th May 2011) see offshore wind as being very expensive and recommends reducing planned expansion by 3 GW and increasing onshore wind by same amount Off Shore Wind25 - 50% some technical development needed to reduce costs. ~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5

58. 58 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) Predictions May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) * On Shore Wind ~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines] available now for commercial exploitation ~ 2+p Off Shore Wind25 - 50% some technical development needed to reduce costs. ~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5 Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill, Norfolk. Rated capacity 5.5 kW Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified Hydro (mini - micro) 5% technically mature, but limited potential 2.5 - 3p 11p for <2MW projects

59. 59 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) * On Shore Wind ~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines] available now for commercial exploitation ~ 2+p Off Shore Wind25 - 50% some technical development needed to reduce costs. ~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5 Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified Hydro (mini - micro) 5% technically mature, but limited potential 2.5 - 3p 11p for <2MW projects Climate Change Report suggests that 1.6 TWh (0.4%) might be achieved by 2020 which is equivalent to ~ 2.0 GW. Photovoltaic <<5% even assuming 10 GW of installation available, but much further research needed to bring down costs significantly 15+ p 25p +/-8

60. 60 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) * On Shore Wind ~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines] available now for commercial exploitation ~ 2+p Off Shore Wind25 - 50% some technical development needed to reduce costs. ~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5 Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified Hydro (mini - micro) 5% technically mature, but limited potential 2.5 - 3p 11p for <2MW projects Photovoltaic <<5% even assuming 10 GW of installation available, but much further research needed to bring down costs significantly 15+ p 25p +/-8 To provide 5% of UK electricity needs will require an area the size of Norfolk and Suffolk devoted solely to biomass Sewage, Landfill, Energy Crops/ Biomass/Biogas ??5% available, but research needed in some areas e.g. advanced gasification 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p depending on technology Transport Fuels: Biodiesel? Bioethanol? Compressed gas from methane from waste.

61. 61 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) Predictions May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) On Shore Wind~25% available now ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Off Shore Wind 25 - 50% available but costly ~2.5 - 3p12.5p +/- 2.5 Small Hydro5% limited potential2.5 - 3p 11p for <2MW projects Photovoltaic<<5% available, but very costly 15+ p25p +/-8 Biomass??5% available, but research needed 2.5 - 4p7 - 13p Wave/Tidal Stream currently < 10 MW may be 1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%) technology limited - major development not before 2020 4 - 8p 19p +/- 6 Tidal 26.5p +/- 7.5p Wave

62. 62 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) Predictions May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) On Shore Wind~25% available now ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Off Shore Wind 25 - 50% available but costly ~2.5 - 3p12.5p +/- 2.5 Small Hydro5% limited potential2.5 - 3p 11p for <2MW projects Photovoltaic<<5% available, but very costly 15+ p25p +/-8 Biomass??5% available, but research needed 2.5 - 4p7 - 13p Wave/Tidal Stream currently < 10 MW may be 1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%) techology limited - major development not before 2020 4 - 8p 19p +/- 6 Tidal 26.5p +/- 7.5p Wave

63. 63 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) Predictions May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) On Shore Wind~25% available now ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Off Shore Wind 25 - 50% available but costly ~2.5 - 3p12.5p +/- 2.5 Small Hydro5% limited potential2.5 - 3p 11p for <2MW projects Photovoltaic<<5% available, but very costly 15+ p25p +/-8 Biomass??5% available, but research needed 2.5 - 4p7 - 13p Wave/Tidal Stream currently < 10 MW may be 1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%) technology limited - major development not before 2020 4 - 8p 19p +/- 6 Tidal 26.5p +/- 7.5p Wave Severn Barrage/ Mersey Barrages have been considered frequently e.g. pre war – 1970s, 2009 Severn Barrage could provide 5-8% of UK electricity needs In Orkney – Churchill Barriers Output ~80 000 GWh per annum - Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney but there are only 4000 in Orkney. Controversy in bringing cables south. Would save 40000 tonnes of CO 2 Tidal Barrages5 - 15% technology available but unlikely for 2020. Construction time ~10 years. In 2010 Government abandoned plans for development 26p +/-5

64. 64 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) Predictions May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) On Shore Wind ~25% available now ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Off Shore Wind 25 - 50% available but costly ~2.5 - 3p12.5p +/- 2.5 Small Hydro5% limited potential2.5 - 3p 11p for <2MW Photovoltaic<<5% available, but very costly 15+ p25p +/-8 Biomass??5% available, but research needed 2.5 - 4p7 - 13p Wave/Tidal Stream currently < 10 MW ??1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%) technology limited - major development not before 2020 4 - 8p 19p Tidal 26.5p Wave Tidal Barrages5 - 15% In 2010 Government abandoned plans for development 26p +/-5 Geothermal unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity

65. 65 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) Predictions May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) On Shore Wind~25%available now ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Off Shore Wind 25 - 50% available but costly ~2.5 - 3p12.5p +/- 2.5 Small Hydro5% limited potential2.5 - 3p 11p for <2MW Photovoltaic<<5% available, but very costly 15+ p25p +/-8 Biomass??5% available, but research needed 2.5 - 4p7 - 13p Wave/Tidal Stream currently < 10 MW ??1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%) technology limited - major development not before 2020 4 - 8p 19p Tidal 26.5p Wave Tidal Barrages5 - 15% In 2010 Government abandoned plans for development 26p +/-5 Geothermal unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity Demonstrates importance of on shore wind for next decade or so

66. 66 Our looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030. Existing Coal Existing Nuclear Oil 66 Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030. Existing Coal UK Gas Imported Gas New Nuclear New Coal Existing Nuclear Other Renewables Offshore Wind Onshore Wind Oil 1 new nuclear station completed each year after 2020. 1 new coal station with CCS each year after 2020 1 million homes fitted with PV each year from 2020 - 40% of homes fitted by 2030 15+ GW of onshore wind by 2030 cf 4 GW now Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030. No electric cars or heat pumps Version suitable for Office 2003, 2007 & 2010

67. 67 Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind, waste and biomass?. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 10 - 20 years. [very expensive or technically immature or both] If our answer is NO Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ? Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks? If our answer is NO Do we want to return to using coal? then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY – confirmed by Climate Change Committee [9 th May 2011] If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>> Our Choices: They are difficult

68. 68 Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is YES By 2020 we will be dependent on GAS for around 70% of our heating and electricity imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> If not: We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises. We must take a coherent integrated approach in our decision making – not merely be against one technology or another

69. 69 A Pathway to a Low Carbon Future for business 4.Renewable Energy 5.Offsetting Green Tariffs 3.Technical Measures 1.Awareness 2.Management

70. 70 Conclusions Buildings built to low energy standards have cost ~ 5% more, but savings have recouped extra costs in around 5 years. Ventilation heat requirements can be large and efficient heat recovery is important. Effective adaptive energy management can reduce heating energy requirements in a low energy building by 50% or more. Photovoltaic cells need to take account of intended use of electricity use in building to get the optimum value. Building scale CHP can reduce carbon emissions significantly Adsorption chilling should be included to ensure optimum utilisation of CHP plant, to reduce electricity demand, and allow increased generation of electricity locally. Promoting Awareness can result in up to 25% savings The Future for UEA: Biomass CHP Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher "If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."

71. 71 This presentation will be available from tomorrow at above WEB Site: http://www2.env.uea.ac.uk/cred/cred.htm Keith Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) k.tovey@uea.ac.uk Carbon Reduction Strategies at the University of East Anglia

72. 72

73. kWh% costRank% Renewables Norwich3,53579%6 0.0% Ipswich4,34997%159 0.0% Waveney4,41799%181 1.9% Broadland4,618103%231 3.0% Great Yarmouth4,699105%252 30.0% St Edmundsbury4,869109%280 1.0% Breckland5,028112%312 31.8% Forest Heath5,174116%336 0.0% Babergh5,252117%343 0.1% South Norfolk5,347119%358 5.0% Suffolk Coastal5,371120%360 1.0% North Norfolk5,641126%385 1.3% Mid Suffolk5,723128%390 18.3% King's Lynn and West Norfolk5,731128%393 2.5% UK Average4478 % of average cost of electricity bills compared to National Average Rank position in UK out of 408 Local Authorities Average house in Norwich emits 1.87 tonnes of CO 2 from electricity use in Kings Lynn 3.04 tonnes of CO 2 Average household electricity bill in Norwich is 64% that in Kings Lynn Average Domestic Electricity Consumption in Norfolk and Suffolk 73

74. 建造 209441GJ 使用空调 384967GJ 自然通风 221508GJ Life Cycle Energy Requirements of ZICER compared to other buildings 与其他建筑相比 ZICER 楼的能量需求 Materials Production 材料制造 Materials Transport 材料运输 On site construction energy 现场建造 Workforce Transport 劳动力运输 Intrinsic Heating / Cooling energy 基本功暖 / 供冷能耗 Functional Energy 功能能耗 Refurbishment Energy 改造能耗 Demolition Energy 拆除能耗 28% 54% 34% 51% 61% 29% 74

75. Life Cycle Issues Embodied Energy in PV Cells (most arising from Electricity use in manufacture) 32302750 Array supports and system connections285 On site Installation energy131.4 Transportation Spain > Germany > UK 11250 vehicle-kilometres 453.2 Total MWh/kWp4.13.4 Mono- crystalline (kWh/kWp) Poly- crystalline (kWh/kWp) Energy Yield Ratios Mono-crystalline Cells202530 As add on features3.23.84.6 Integrated into design3.54.25.4 Life Time of cells (years) 75

76. Installations under the Feed In Tariff Scheme (11/05/2011) Technology Domestic Installations Other Installations*Total Number Installed Capacity (MW) Number Installed Capacity (MW) Number Installed Capacity (MW) Norfolk Hydro20.02110.4920.021 Micro CHP40.003003 Photovoltaic7491.883120.0997611.982 Wind210.15360.040270.193 Total7752.060180.1397932.198 Suffolk Hydro000000.000 Micro CHP10.001001 Photovoltaic7481.90480.0397561.944 Wind190.12520.011210.136 Total7682.030100.0507782.080 76 * Commercial, Industrial and Community Schemes. Note: Chris Huhne announced a potential curtailment of large PV FIT schemes (>50kW) in early February 2011.

77. 77 The Carbon Debt to China – a moral dilema Production of exports has caused emission of CO 2 in China to increase by 796 Mtonnes between 2002 and 2005. [ 478 Mtonnes to Developed Countries] Each person in developed world is responsible to China for the emission of an EXTRA 463kg in just 3 years. Increases in CO 2 in China 2002 - 2005 Other

78. 78 Electricity Generation Carbon Emission Factors Coal ~ 1.0 kg / kWh Oil ~ 0.9 kg/kWh Gas (CCGT) ~ 0.4 kg/kWh Nuclear 0.01 ~ 0.03 kg/kWh November December January February Current UK mix ~ 0.54 kg/kWh

79. Load factors Façade: 2% in winter ~8% in summer Roof 2% in winter 15% in summer Output per unit area Little difference between orientations in winter months Performance of PV cells on ZICER 79