1. Nominations, Elections, and campaigns
Chapter 9
Nominations, Elections, and campaigns

2. No WSU Essay this chapter

3. Chapter 9 – Scenario 1
Are you going to vote when you are old enough?
Do you like the way candidates campaign for office?
Do attack ads effect your opinion of a candidate?

4. UK vs. US elections Pg. 279-280 Parliamentary, not presidential govt
Prime Minister, chosen by Parliament
Elections not on fixed schedule – called according to need
31 days for campaigning, not multi-year

5. The Evolution of Campaigning
During election campaigns, political parties help structure voting choice
Successful campaigns need resources to acquire, analyze, and disseminate information
Voter interests
Campaign tactics
Candidate message
Voter turnout

6. The Evolution of Campaigning
Until 1950s, political parties ran most campaigns
Today’s candidates manage own campaigns
Races more candidate-centered
Must campaign for nomination as well as election
Parties help with funding and party label

7. Nominations
American political parties use elections to choose party nominees
In most other countries, party leaders choose nominees
In America, each state has own set of laws regarding party nominations
America puts large burden on voters

8. Compared With What?
Image of voter ballots for U.S. and British elections
See page
Compared with Britain and virtually all other countries, voting is complicated in U.S.

9. Nomination for Congress and State Offices
All states use a primary election as all or part of the nomination process
Preliminary election by party to select its candidate
Nomination process highly decentralized
Only half of regular party voters vote in a given primary – 20% in Aug SG CO.
Many primary races have little or no competition – 25% of statewide have competition

10. Primary Elections Four types of primary elections: (pg. 285)
Closed primaries – Must be registered in that party to vote on that party
Open primaries – Any voter can choose either party’s ballot
Modified closed primaries – individual state parties decide if unaffiliated can vote
Modified open primaries – all not registered with a party can choose any party ballot
The type of primary affects strength of party organizations

11. Kansas Primary/Caucus
In 2012, Republicans held closed primaries; however, they allowed unaffiliated voters to register Republican on election day. Democrats allowed both affiliated and unaffiliated voters to vote.
- see for a list of states

12. Nomination for President
Presidential candidates for each party chosen at national convention – summer every 4 years
Until 1960s, party delegates to national convention chose nominee
Since 1972, delegates have been chosen by complex process that includes the primary election and party caucuses

13. Selecting Convention Delegates
Different states and parties have different procedures for selecting delegates
States follow one of two basic formats:
Presidential primary – individual vote
Presidential caucus/convention - meetings
Democratic selection proportional; Republicans “winner takes all”
Primary
Caucus

14. Selecting Convention Delegates
Delegates selected openly back one of the presidential candidates
Primary elections and caucuses mean nominees’ names usually known before national conventions
Early primaries and caucuses result in “front-loading”
Republican candidates need 1144 of 2286 delegates at Tampa in August to win nomination

15. Changes in the Presidential Nominating Process
Until 1968
Since 1972
Party Dominated
Candidate Dominated
Few Primaries
Many Primaries
Short Campaigns
Long Campaigns
Easy Money
Difficult Fundraising
Limited Media Coverage
Media Focused
Late Decisions
“Front-Loaded”
Open Conventions
Closed Conventions
See page

16. Campaigning for the Nomination
A complex, drawn-out process
Invisible primary early positioning for support
Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary viewed as testing grounds
In 2008, narrowed field to five Republicans and seven Democrats
“Super Tuesday” resulted in one Republican and two Democrats with the most support by voters
16% Iowa caucus turnout. 52% NH

17. A Long, Drawn Out Process

18. Campaigning for the Nomination
John McCain set as Republican nominee after Super Tuesday in 2008
Romney secured 1144 delegates May 29, 2012
Democratic contest not settled until June 7th, 2008
Winner-take-all- vs. proportional delegates a big difference in 2008

19. Historic 2008 election Dems had a black and woman defeat 8 white males
Reps winner was neither early favorite (Giuliani) nor most money (Romney)
Reps nominated first female VP in history (Ferraro for Dems in 1984)

20. Figure 9.1 – Pg. 291 From Many to Two: Presidential Hopefuls Starting and Dropping Out
-Over 100 candidates filed with the FEC to run for president in 2008.
-The graph lists the 10 Dems and 12 Reps who raised enough $ to meet the FEC’s requirement for electronic filing.
-Some candidates withdrew before the delegate selection process began.
-Others dropped out for lack of support in primaries/caucuses.
2008

21. “Only in America” Marvels the World
In early 2008, the world focused attention on the unprecedented contest between a woman and an African American for the presidential nomination of a major U.S. political party. A shopper in Tokyo pauses to watch returns from New Jersey

22. Consequences of Presidential Campaigns
Races with no incumbents contested in both parties
Incumbent presidents usually face little opposition
Iowa and New Hampshire do matter
20/22 nominees since 1972 were first in either Iowa or NH
In 2008, Giuliani ignored these two to focus on later ones, and he lost badly.
Candidates favored most by party identifiers usually win nomination
Winners owe little to national party organization

23. Elections
By national law, all seats in House of Representatives and 1/3 of seats in Senate elected every two years in general election
State and local offices also on ballot
President chosen every 4th year in presidential election
Non-presidential elections congressional, mid-term, or off-year elections

24. Presidential Elections and the Electoral College
Presidency not automatically given to person with the most votes in the general election
General election selects electors who then select president
States receive one elector for each House and Senate seat (total members in Congress)
Washington, D.C. also receives three electors
538 total electoral votes
KS: 4 Reps + 2 Senators = 6 electoral votes

25. The Electoral College
Candidate must have a majority of electoral votes (270) to win presidency
If no candidate receives majority, decision on president made by the House; Senate chooses vice president
Each state has one vote
Has only happened in 1800 and 1824

26. 2012 Electoral Map Obama vs. Romney

27. 2012 Presidential Election Results
Barack Obama
Mitt Romney
Electoral Vote
332
206
Popular Vote
64,638,862
60,382,066
% Popular Vote
50.8
47.5
States Carried
26+DC 24

28. 2008 Electoral Map

29. 2008 Presidential Election Results
Barack Obama
John McCain
Electoral Vote
365
173
Popular Vote
67,066,915
58,421,377
% Popular Vote
52.7
45.9
States Carried
28+DC+NE02 22

30. Figure 9.2 – Pg. 295 Populations Shifts and Political Gains and Losses Since 1960
States are drawn according to their population on the map (based on 2000 census). Each state’s electoral votes = total members in Congress. Although New Jersey is much smaller than Montana in land area, it is much bigger in terms of “electoral geography.”
The coloring represents states that have gained (green) or lost (purple) electoral votes since Blue = no change.
Which parts of the country are biggest as far as “electoral geography”?

31. Reapportionment 2010 Census6 8 2

32. Reapportionment after 2010 census

33. The Electoral College: Politics
Prior to 1860, most electors chosen by state legislatures
After 1860, electors chosen by popular vote
All states but Maine and Nebraska award electors “winner takes all”
Election in 2000 came down to Florida’s electoral votes

34. 2000 Presidential Election
George Bush
Al Gore
Electoral Vote
271
266
Popular Vote
50,460,110
51,003,926
% Popular Vote
47.9
48.4
States Carried 30
20 + DC
Bush lost the popular vote but won the electoral vote

35. 2008 Presidential Election
Massachusetts is one of the most liberal states. Utah is one of the most conservative
Nebraska and Maine District Plan, not “Winner Take All”

36. Figure 9.3 How America Votes
Sedgwick County uses touch screen….

37. Ch. 9 Scenario 2
What are your thoughts on the electoral college system of electing our President? Do you like it or dislike it? Why?
If the electoral college were to be reformed, what plan do you think would be the best way to elect the President? Explain it and why it might work.

38. The Electoral College: Abolish It?
Over 700 proposals to abolish electoral college introduced in Congress over the years
You vote for electors who pledge to vote for one of the candidates.
Electoral vote system allows states to decide how electors chosen – a federal system
Many voters appear to prefer nationwide direct popular vote
Benjamin Harrison (1888-Cleveland) and George W. Bush (2000-Gore) elected despite losing popular vote
Faithless Electors
Harrison
Cleveland

39. Figure 9.4 – pg. 298 The Popular Vote and the Electoral Vote
In every election between , the candidate winning the plurality of the popular vote won an even larger proportion of the electoral vote. The electoral vote magnifies victory and thus increases the legitimacy of the president-elect.

40. Support for the Electoral College
Generally, results from electoral vote system magnify popular vote results
Electoral college is a federal election system:
Allows small states to have more weight in process
Campaigns carried out via personal contact versus the large market media
Nationwide recounts not needed
2000 butterfly ballot
50 x Florida 2000???

41. Congressional Elections
Candidates for president listed at top of ballot, with other national, state, and local offices below
Voters can vote straight ticket or split ticket
50% split ticket
between 15% and 30% of voters choose president from one party and congressional candidates from the other
Can result in divided government

42. Congressional Elections
Democrats basically in power
Districts drawn by the party in power and usually benefit dominant party
President’s party generally loses seats in mid-term elections

43. Figure 9.5 Presidential Popularity and Party Seat Loss/Gain
Presidents tend to lose popularity after election
President’s party loses seats in midterms.
Presidential parties lose fewer seats if the president retains popularity.
2010 – Obama 48% approval accompanied by 60 seat loss in House, most lost in midterm election since 1938.
Look at Clinton (1994, 1998) and Bush (2002, 2006)

44. Campaigns: The Political Context
Most important structural factors in campaign planning:
Office sought
Whether incumbent or challenger
Non-incumbents more successful in open elections
More populous and/or diverse districts mean more expensive campaigns
Party preference of electorate also important

45. Financing Quality of campaign organizations a function of money
However, money alone does not ensure success
“There are four parts to any campaign. The candidate, the issues of the candidate, the campaign organization, and the money to run the campaign with. Without money, you can forget the other three.” -- former House Speaker Thomas (“Tip”) O’Neill

46. Money, money, money! Helps with: Office space Staff salaries
Cell phones
Computers
Travel expenses
Campaign literature
Advertising!
All add up to better quality of the campaign

47. See Worksheet on Campaign Financing
Page

48. Regulating Campaign Financing
State and federal governments regulate campaign financing
Federal Election Campaign Act (FECA) passed in 1971
Amendments in 1972 created Federal Election Commission (FEC)
Limits on political action committee (PAC) contributions – both soft and hard money
After court challenges, 1974 FECA governed elections for about 30 years

49. Regulating Campaign Financing
Increases in campaign contributions and spending led to Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA) in 2002
Limits on contributions by individuals
Banned soft money contributions to political parties
Allowed 527 committees to spend unlimited amounts for media, with some limits
2007 Supreme Court ruling struck down ban on issue ads before elections
New committees formed – 501(c)4 social welfare organizations
2010 Supreme Court ruling overturned ban on corporate contributions to candidates
Citizens United vs. FEC

50. Public Financing of Presidential Campaigns
Both FECA and BCRA provided for public financing for presidential campaigns
Subject to spending limits
Until 1996, all eligible candidates used public funds for primary elections
Since 1996, more and more candidates refusing public funds for primaries
Funding for general election follows different rules; most candidates used until 2004

51. Private Financing of Congressional Campaigns
Candidates for national office raised over $3 billion during the primary and general elections
Obama raised almost $750 million
McCain raised almost $370 million
Congressional candidates raised almost $1.4 billion

52. Future Trends in Campaign Finance
Public funding faces uncertain future
Major candidates can raise more money on their own
Contribution bundlers
Internet fundraising
BCRA limited soft money but not amounts raised for presidential campaigns

53. Strategies and Tactics
Strategies are broad approaches to campaigns
Party-centered strategies – not good in primaries. Best for less knowledgable voters
Issue-oriented strategies
Candidate-oriented strategies
Strategies must take into account political context

54. Making the News
News coverage valuable because it’s free and seems objective to the public
Incumbents have advantage
News coverage frequently limited to “sound bites”
Horse-race metaphors limit attention to issues: bandwagons, losing ground, the front-runner, and the likely loser

55. Advertising the Candidate
Main objective for campaigns ads: name recognition
Voters may not recall name but recognize on a list, such as a ballot
Must also point out virtues of candidate
Campaign ads also sometimes attack opponent or play on emotions
Majority of ads use electronic media

56. Advertising the Candidate
Recent years’ ads tend to mention personal characteristics rather than policy preferences
Negative ads can be either attack ads or contrast ads (attack, yet promote self)
Media sometimes report controversial ads as news
Attack/negative ads help the challenger; incumbents better being positive
Raj Goyle
Mike Pompeo

57. Using the Internet Use started in 1992 with e-mail to supporters
Democrats pioneered Internet usage in election campaigns, both to raise funds and mobilize supporters
Also use social networking sites, blogs, and YouTube
Internet inexpensive way to quickly contact supporters, but TV still best way to reach average voters

58. Party Identification
Over half of electorate decides candidate before party conventions
Early decisions generally vote based on party identification
Each candidate in 2008 received 90% of vote of self-described partisans
Independents generally favored Obama
Republicans have won more elections due to lack of Democratic voter turnout and other short-term factors

59. Figure 9.6 Effect of Party Identification on the Vote, 2008

60. Issues and Policies
Candidates exploit issues that seem to be important to voters
Incumbent’s record versus problems pointed out by challenger
Even with no incumbent, that party’s candidate may be tied to outgoing president

61. Hopes Fulfilled
First black candidate to be elected President. Won with 53% of popular vote and 68% of electoral vote.

62. Hopes Dashed
Campaign history was made as Sarah Palin became first woman nominated to be Republican Vice President.

63. Candidates’ Attributes
Attributes important because most voters lack information about candidates’ past performance and policy stands
Stereotypical thinking may play into some voters’ decisions
Catholic, black, Jewish, Mormon

64. Evaluating the Voting Choice
Party identification and candidate attributes not basis for voting according to democratic theory
*Citizens should vote based on past performance and proposed policies
Research shows that issues are least important to voters.

65. Campaign Effects Battleground/Border states important
While campaign may not cause change in party identification, can influence enough votes to change outcome of election
Television ads main method for transmitting candidates’ message
Obama outspent McCain 4 to 1 on ads
Presidential campaign in 2008 most expensive ever
No major candidate took federal matching funds in primary; only McCain in general election
Battleground/Border states important

66. The Presidential Debates
First televised debate in 1960 between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon
In 1976, televised debates began airing regularly
Presidential and vice-presidential debates in 2008 election led to rise in support for Obama in election polls

67. Campaigns, Elections, and Parties
Party organizations not central to elections in America
Both parties follow majoritarian model by formulating different party platforms and pursuing announced policies when in office
Weak connection between party platform and voters during campaigns and elections
Party platforms do not play major role in elections, especially those for House and Senate seats

68. Parties and the Pluralist Model
The way parties operate in America more like pluralist model
Function as two giant interest groups
Parties prefer candidates who support party platform
However, candidates operate as entrepreneurs, and may vote against party leadership
Stronger parties might be able to better coordinate government policies after elections