1. 18 September 2009: On the value of reforecasts for the TIGGE database 1/27 On the value of reforecasts for the TIGGE database Renate Hagedorn European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Tom Hamill NOAA/ESRL/PSD

2. 18 September 2009: On the value of reforecasts for the TIGGE database 2/27 Motivation One goal of TIGGE is to investigate whether multi-model predictions are an improvement to single model forecasts The goal of using reforecasts to calibrate single model forecasts is to provide improved predictions Questions:  What are the relative benefits (costs) of both approaches?  What is the mechanism behind the improvements?  Which is the “better” approach?

3. 18 September 2009: On the value of reforecasts for the TIGGE database 3/27 Possible verification datasets If we don’t verify against model independent observations we need to agree on a ‘fair’ but also ‘most useful’ verification dataset Use each model’s own analysis as verification  Multi-model has no “own analysis”  Intercomparison of skill scores “difficult” because reference forecast scores differently for different analysis Use a multi-model analysis as verification  Incorporating less accurate analyses might not necessarily lead to an analysis which is closest to reality  Calibration needs a consistent verification dataset used in both training and application phase, MM-analysis not available for reforecast training period Use “semi-independent” analysis: ERA-interim  Assumed to be as close as possible to reality  Available for long period in the past and near real-time  For upper air fields in Extra-Tropics close to analyses of best models / MM-analysis  For Tropics and near-surface fields use bias-corrected forecasts for ‘fair’ assessment

4. 18 September 2009: On the value of reforecasts for the TIGGE database 4/27 Choice of analysis: upper air, extra-tropics dashed: ERA-interim as verification T-850hPa, DJF 2008/09 Northern Hemisphere (20°N - 90°N) NCEP Met Office ECMWF TIGGE solid: multi-model analysis as verification Using ERA-interim leads to only minor differences, except for short lead times when scores get worse (applies for all models)

5. 18 September 2009: On the value of reforecasts for the TIGGE database 5/27 Choice of analysis: upper air, tropics dashed: ERA-interim as verification NCEP Met Office ECMWF TIGGE solid: multi-model analysis as verification Using ERA-interim worsens scores considerably / less / least for MO / ECMWF / NCEP T-850hPa, DJF 2008/09 Tropics (20°S - 20°N)

6. 18 September 2009: On the value of reforecasts for the TIGGE database 6/27 Choice of analysis: surface dashed: ERA-interim as verification T2m, DJF 2008/09 Northern Hemisphere (20°N - 90°N) NCEP Met Office ECMWF TIGGE solid: multi-model analysis as verification Using ERA-interim worsens scores, in particular at early lead times, more for MO and NCEP, less for ECMWF

7. 18 September 2009: On the value of reforecasts for the TIGGE database 7/27 Choice of analysis: surface, bias-corrected dashed: DMO with ERA-interim as verification T2m, DJF 2008/09 Northern Hemisphere (20°N - 90°N) NCEP Met Office ECMWF TIGGE solid: Bias-Corr. with ERA-interim as verification Bias-correction improves scores, in particular at early lead times, more for MO and NCEP, less for ECMWF

8. 18 September 2009: On the value of reforecasts for the TIGGE database 8/27 Comparing 9 TIGGE models & the MM T-850hPa, DJF 2008/09 NH (20°N - 90°N) DMO vs. ERA-interim Symbols used for significance level vs. MM (1%)

9. 18 September 2009: On the value of reforecasts for the TIGGE database 9/27 Comparing 9 TIGGE models & the MM T-2m, DJF 2008/09 NH (20°N - 90°N) BC vs. ERA-interim

10. 18 September 2009: On the value of reforecasts for the TIGGE database 10/27 Comparing 4 TIGGE models & the MM T-850hPa, DJF 2008/09 NH (20°N - 90°N) DMO vs. ERA-interim

11. 18 September 2009: On the value of reforecasts for the TIGGE database 11/27 Comparing 4 TIGGE models & the MM T2m, DJF 2008/09 NH (20°N - 90°N) BC vs. ERA-interim

12. 18 September 2009: On the value of reforecasts for the TIGGE database 12/27 with: Φ = CDF of standard Gaussian distribution Calibration using reforecasts All calibration methods need a training dataset, containing a number of forecast-observation pairs from the past Non-homogeneous Gaussian Regression (NGR) provides a Gaussian PDF based on the ensemble mean and variance of the raw forecast distribution Calibration process:  Determine optimal calibration coefficients by minimizing CRPS for training dataset  Apply calibration coefficients to determine calibrated PDF from ensemble mean and variance of actual forecast to be calibrated  Create calibrated NGR-ensemble with 51 synthetic members  Combine NGR-ensemble with ‘30-day bias corrected’ forecast ensemble

13. 18 September 2009: On the value of reforecasts for the TIGGE database 13/27 The reforecast dataset 2008 2009 NovDecJan 2930010203040506070809101112131415161718192021222324252627282930310102 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994........ 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

14. 18 September 2009: On the value of reforecasts for the TIGGE database 14/27 The reforecast dataset 2008 2009 NovDecJan 2930010203040506070809101112131415161718192021222324252627282930310102 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994........ 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

15. 18 September 2009: On the value of reforecasts for the TIGGE database 15/27 Comparing 4 TIGGE models, MM, EC-CAL 2m Temperature, DJF 2008/09 NH (20°N - 90°N) BC & refc-cali vs. ERA-interim

16. 18 September 2009: On the value of reforecasts for the TIGGE database 16/27 Comparing 4 TIGGE models, MM, EC-CAL 2m Temperature, DJF 2008/09 EU (35°N-75°N, 12.5°E-42.5°W) BC & refc-cali vs. ERA-interim

17. 18 September 2009: On the value of reforecasts for the TIGGE database 17/27 Comparing 4 TIGGE models, MM, EC-CAL MSLP, DJF 2008/09 NH (20°N - 90°N) BC & refc-cali vs. ERA-interim

18. 18 September 2009: On the value of reforecasts for the TIGGE database 18/27 Comparing 4 TIGGE models, MM, EC-CAL T-850hPa, DJF 2008/09 NH (20°N - 90°N) DMO & refc-cali vs. ERA-interim

19. 18 September 2009: On the value of reforecasts for the TIGGE database 19/27 Mechanism behind improvements SPREAD (dash) RMSE (solid) 2m Temperature, DJF 2008/09 Northern Hemisphere (20°N - 90°N) Verification: ERA-interim

20. 18 September 2009: On the value of reforecasts for the TIGGE database 20/27 Mechanism behind improvements SPREAD (dash) RMSE (solid) 2m Temperature, DJF 2008/09 Northern Hemisphere (20°N - 90°N) Verification: ERA-interim

21. 18 September 2009: On the value of reforecasts for the TIGGE database 21/27 Mechanism behind improvements SPREAD (dash) RMSE (solid) 2m Temperature, DJF 2008/09 Northern Hemisphere (20°N - 90°N) Verification: ERA-interim

22. 18 September 2009: On the value of reforecasts for the TIGGE database 22/27 Reduced TIGGE multi-model 2m Temperature, DJF 2008/09 Northern Hemisphere (20°N - 90°N) Verification: ERA-interim CRPS_ref = CRPS (full TIGGE)

23. 18 September 2009: On the value of reforecasts for the TIGGE database 23/27 TIGGE vs. ECMWF vs. EC-CAL 2m Temperature, DJF 2008/09 Northern Hemisphere (20°N - 90°N) Verification: ERA-interim

24. 18 September 2009: On the value of reforecasts for the TIGGE database 24/27 Impact of calibration & MM in EPSgrams 2m Temperature FC: 30/12/2008 ECMWF ECMWF-NGR TIGGE Analysis Monterey London

25. 18 September 2009: On the value of reforecasts for the TIGGE database 25/27 What about station data? (No significance test applied)

26. 18 September 2009: On the value of reforecasts for the TIGGE database 26/27 Relative benefits and costs TIGGE multi-model NGR Calibration using reforecasts Benefits: upper air fields limited Benefits: surface fields Improved scores through reduced systematic error and increased spread Improved scores through reduced systematic error and more appropriate spread Costs: Computational aspects No extra computer time but data transfer costs Moderate increase in computing time (~10%), “for free” if reforecasts are produced for other purposes Costs: Logistic aspects Significantly increased complexity could make system more prone to failures, and timing issues could arise Slight increase in complexity, e.g. when changing model cycles

27. 18 September 2009: On the value of reforecasts for the TIGGE database 27/27 Summary What are the relative benefits (costs) of both approaches?  Both multi-model and reforecast calibration approach can improve predictions, in particular for (biased and under-dispersive) near-surface parameters What is the mechanism behind the improvements?  Both approaches correct similar deficiencies to a similar extent Which is the “better” approach?  On balance, reforecast calibration seems to be the easier option for a reliable provision of forecasts in an operational environment  Both approaches can be useful in achieving the ultimate goal of an optimized, well tuned forecast system