1. Space Weather

2. Solar Wind-Magnetosphere Interaction
Bow shock
Magnetosheath
Magnetopause
MAGNETOSPHERE
Magnetotail
Solar Wind

3. Space Weather Phenomena
Magnetic storms (hurricanes in space)
Global-scale long-lasting geomagnetic disturbances
Magnetic substorms (tornadoes in space)
Impulsive geomagnetic disturbances
Auroras (rains from space)
Enhanced energetic particle precipitations associated with storms/substorms
Ionospheric plasma density disturbances
Destruction of the layered structure of the ionosphere.
Enhanced extremely high-energy particle fluxes

4. Why do we care?
In an everyday life Space Weather seems to play no role. Except we have beautiful images of aurora.
It would be the case some hundreds years ago when there were no satellites, long electric network and telecommunications.
Nowadays ignoring effects of space weather may result in:
severe damage to hardware on the Earth and in a space
outage of navigation and telecommunication services
radiation hazard by pilots and astronauts
damage or incorrect functioning of electronics: memory and CPU

6. Examples. Transformer Heating
Saturation of the transformer core produces extra eddy currents in the transformer core and structural supports which heat the transformer. The large thermal mass of a high voltage power transformer means that this heating produces a negligible change in the overall transformer temperature. However, localized hot spots can occur and
cause damage to the transformer windings

7. Examples.
Irregularly structured ionospheric regions can cause diffraction and scattering of trans-ionospheric radio signals. When received at an antenna, these signals present random temporal fluctuations in both amplitude and phase. This is known as ionospheric scintillation. Ionospheric scintillation may cause problems such as signal power fading, phase cycle slips, receiver loss of lock, etc., and degrade the quality of satellite navigation systems.

8. Geomagnetic Storms Scale Description Effect Physical measure
Average Frequency (1 cycle = 11 years)
G 5
Extreme
Power systems: Widespread voltage control problems and protective system problems can occur, some grid systems may experience complete collapse or blackouts. Transformers may experience damage.
Spacecraft operations: May experience extensive surface charging, problems with orientation, uplink/downlink and tracking satellites.
Other systems: Pipeline currents can reach hundreds of amps, HF (high frequency) radio propagation may be impossible in many areas for one to two days, satellite navigation may be degraded for days, low-frequency radio navigation can be out for hours, and aurora has been seen as low as Florida and southern Texas (typically 40° geomagnetic lat.).
Kp = 9
4 per cycle (4 days per cycle)
G 4
Severe
Power systems: Possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems will mistakenly trip out key assets from the grid.
Spacecraft operations: May experience surface charging and tracking problems, corrections may be needed for orientation problems.
Other systems: Induced pipeline currents affect preventive measures, HF radio propagation sporadic, satellite navigation degraded for hours, low-frequency radio navigation disrupted, and aurora has been seen as low as Alabama and northern California (typically 45° geomagnetic lat.).
Kp = 8, including a 9-
100 per cycle (60 days per cycle)
G 3
Strong
Power systems: Voltage corrections may be required, false alarms triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft operations: Surface charging may occur on satellite components, drag may increase on low-Earth-orbit satellites, and corrections may be needed for orientation problems.
Other systems: Intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation problems may occur, HF radio may be intermittent, and aurora has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon (typically 50° geomagnetic lat.).
Kp = 7
200 per cycle (130 days per cycle)
G 2
Moderate
Power systems: High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms, long-duration storms may cause transformer damage.
Spacecraft operations: Corrective actions to orientation may be required by ground control; possible changes in drag affect orbit predictions.
Other systems: HF radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes, and aurora has been seen as low as New York and Idaho (typically 55° geomagnetic lat.).
Kp = 6
600 per cycle (360 days per cycle)
G 1
Minor
Power systems: Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft operations: Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Other systems: Migratory animals are affected at this and higher levels; aurora is commonly visible at high latitudes (northern Michigan and Maine).
Kp = 5
1700 per cycle (900 days per cycle)
Geomagnetic Storms
Geomagnetic Storms
Geomagnetic Storms

9. Solar Radiation Storms
Scale
Description
Effect
Physical measure (Flux level of >= 10 MeV particles)
Average Frequency (1 cycle = 11 years)
S 5
Extreme
Biological: Unavoidable high radiation hazard to astronauts on EVA (extra-vehicular activity); passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to radiation risk.
Satellite operations: Satellites may be rendered useless, memory impacts can cause loss of control, may cause serious noise in image data, star-trackers may be unable to locate sources; permanent damage to solar panels possible.
Other systems: Complete blackout of HF (high frequency) communications possible through the polar regions, and position errors make navigation operations extremely difficult.
105
Fewer than 1 per cycle
S 4
Severe
Biological: Unavoidable radiation hazard to astronauts on EVA; passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to radiation risk.
Satellite operations: May experience memory device problems and noise on imaging systems; star-tracker problems may cause orientation problems, and solar panel efficiency can be degraded.
Other systems: Blackout of HF radio communications through the polar regions and increased navigation errors over several days are likely.
104
3 per cycle
S 3
Strong
Biological: Radiation hazard avoidance recommended for astronauts on EVA; passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to radiation risk.
Satellite operations: Single-event upsets, noise in imaging systems, and slight reduction of efficiency in solar panel are likely.
Other systems: Degraded HF radio propagation through the polar regions and navigation position errors likely.
103
10 per cycle
S 2
Moderate
Biological: Passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to elevated radiation risk.
Satellite operations: Infrequent single-event upsets possible.
Other systems: Small effects on HF propagation through the polar regions and navigation at polar cap locations possibly affected.
102
25 per cycle
S 1
Minor
Biological: None.
Satellite operations: None.
Other systems: Minor impacts on HF radio in the polar regions. 10
50 per cycle
Solar Radiation Storms

10. Radio Blackouts R 5 Extreme
Scale
Description
Effect
Physical measure
Average Frequency (1 cycle = 11 years)
R 5
Extreme
HF Radio: Complete HF (high frequency) radio blackout on the entire sunlit side of the Earth lasting for a number of hours. This results in no HF radio contact with mariners and en route aviators in this sector.
Navigation: Low-frequency navigation signals used by maritime and general aviation systems experience outages on the sunlit side of the Earth for many hours, causing loss in positioning. Increased satellite navigation errors in positioning for several hours on the sunlit side of Earth, which may spread into the night side.
X20 (2 x 10-3)
Less than 1 per cycle
R 4
Severe
HF Radio: HF radio communication blackout on most of the sunlit side of Earth for one to two hours. HF radio contact lost during this time.
Navigation: Outages of low-frequency navigation signals cause increased error in positioning for one to two hours. Minor disruptions of satellite navigation possible on the sunlit side of Earth.
X10 (10-3)
8 per cycle (8 days per cycle)
R 3
Strong
HF Radio: Wide area blackout of HF radio communication, loss of radio contact for about an hour on sunlit side of Earth.
Navigation: Low-frequency navigation signals degraded for about an hour.
X1 (10-4)
175 per cycle (140 days per cycle)
R 2
Moderate
HF Radio: Limited blackout of HF radio communication on sunlit side, loss of radio contact for tens of minutes.
Navigation: Degradation of low-frequency navigation signals for tens of minutes.
M5 (5 x 10-5)
350 per cycle (300 days per cycle)
R 1
Minor
HF Radio: Weak or minor degradation of HF radio communication on sunlit side, occasional loss of radio contact.
Navigation: Low-frequency navigation signals degraded for brief intervals.
M1 (10-5)
2000 per cycle (950 days per cycle)
Radio Blackouts

11. Space Weather Forecast and Effects
Specification, Now-cast, Forecast.
Accurate (low false alarm rate), timely, reliable, economical.
Space weather scales
Models:
Empirical, numerical (real time).
Observations:
Monitoring, data acquisition, distribution, assimilation.
Global network, international collaboration
Living With A Star (LWS)

12. Space Weather Forecast and Effects
SME and solar flare prediction
SME impact prediction
Magnetospheric and ionospheric response

13. “magnetic elements” (H, D, Z) (F, I, D) (X, Y, Z)
Standard Components and Conventions
Relating to the Terrestrial Magnetic Field
“magnetic elements”
(H, D, Z)
(F, I, D)
(X, Y, Z)

14. Surface Magnetic Field Magnitude (g) IGRF 1980.0
Max
.33 G
Min
.24 G
.67 G

15. Surface Magnetic Field H-Component (g) IGRF 1980.0

16. Surface Magnetic Field Vertical Component IGRF 1980.0

17. Surface Magnetic Field Declination IGRF 1980.00°
20°
10° 0°

18. Currents: Cause of Magnetic Variations
Magnet field B = Bgeo + Bcurrent
Currents: MP current, tail current, field-aligned current, ionospheric current, ring current
Ring current enhancements: equatorial
=> magnetic storms
Field-aligned current enhancements: polar region => ionospheric current enhancements => substorms

19. Magnetospheric Current System
Over the past two centuries over 200 magnetic observatories have been established.
Data from so many sources is difficult to handle.
Indices have been generated to organize these observations.
The primary sources of ground magnetic disturbances during substorms are the electrojets and the substorm current wedge.
The sources of the midlatitude storm time variations (Dst) are the magnetopause current, the ring current and the partial ring current.

20. Ring current injection can be explained primarily in terms of inward transport of plasma sheet and pre-existing ring-current particles.
None of the models currently includes the ionosphere.
Diffusion has been used successfully to study the injection of radiation belt particles during a storm (see figure at the right). However, the diffusion calculations don’t seem to work for the lower energies of the ring current.

21. Geomagnetic indices DST - disturbance storm time index
Measured at geomagnetic equator by four magnetometers
Represent magnetic field fluctuations due to ring current change.
Units are nT. DST measured with respect to the quiet time magnetic field.
Negative DST means enhanced ring current. Positive DST – reduced ring current.
Kp and ap index (p stands for planetary)
Measured in auroral zone.
Represents magnetic field fluctuations due to currents of the auroral zone. This currents are driven by magnetospheric convection.
Kp Is unitless index (values are from 0 to 9, bigger more severe disturbance); ap has nT units.
Kp = log(ap)
Negative Kp means enhanced ring current. Positive DST – reduced ring current

22. Geomagnetic indices
The Kp index is the quasi-logarithmic equivalent of the ap index. The conversion is as follows:
The daily Ap index, for a given day, is defined as
For any station, the range (highest and lowest deviation from regular daily variation) of X, Y, Z, H, etc. is measured (after Sq and L are removed); the greatest of these is called the "amplitude" for a given station during a 3-hour period. The average of these values for 12 selected observatories is the ap index.

23. Geomagnetic indices
Magnetic perturbations in the H component observed by auroral-zone observatories.
Positive perturbations are produced by a concentrated current (called an auroral elecrojet) flowing eastward. They are observed by stations in the afternoon or evening.
Negative perturbations are produced by a westward electrojet. They are observed near and past midnight.
These currents flow at ~120km altitude and are carried by auroral particles.

24. Typical storm

25. Ionospheric variations during 7-8 November 2004 geomagnetic storm
More interestingly we found that plasma density enhancement start not just after shock arrival but several hours before that. As you can see clearly from series of foF2 global maps calculated at different times. 24 hours before shock arrival there indeed were not much deviation from climate except this red spot over Hainan. We start see plasma density enhancement three hours before shock arrival. After shock arrival we see even more enhancement and what is covered by Zong’s paper. foF2 behaviour What we also get is ionospheric effects during recovery phase which are mentioned only briefly in paper. You can see great plasma density depletion at mid-latitudes and small enhancement at magnetic equator. Depletion is most pronounced at day side and persist for more than 12 hours. This multi cell pattern which can be first thought as wave activity is simply result of limitation which IRTAM currently has. Namely we don’t introduce deviation from climate far from locations where we have measurements. This brings us to this picture with patches with centers on GIRO sites locations. Here is obvious way for improvement. And I will talk about it in conclusion.

26. Ionospheric variations during 7-8 November 2004 geomagnetic storm

27. foF2 variations during recovery phase of 7-8 November geomagnetic storm
As we learnt above the interplanetary shock appears during strong geomagnetic storm. Solar wind parameters are plotted on the bottom panel. The discussed shock is here. Now we consider ionospheric variations during recovery phase of the 7-8 Nov geomagnetic storm. Recovery phase correspond to the time when DST index passes minimum and starts to grow. I plotted ionospheric variations for two particular times
0900 UT and 1830 UT on 8 Nov. We observe large scale plasma depletion at mid latitudes. The absolute depletion is bigger at day side, the relative depletion (if we take the ration of the depletion to the quiet time values of foF2) is almost the same for day and night sides and is about 50%. This pattern persists for not less than 20 hours. We argue that observed phenomenon appears due to refilling of the plasmasphere.

29. Cusp aurora are controlled by the IMF direction.
Cusp auroras form in the daytime polar thermosphere where atomic species are abundant.
Atomic bands are more important than molecular.
The dominant dayside cusp aurora is the diffuse band with I (630nm)>>I(557.7nm).
The cusp aurora is called the “midday gap” because discrete auroral forms are frequently absent.
Cusp aurora are controlled by the IMF direction.
For BZ<0 cusp aurora are stronger as magnetosheath particles have direct access.
For Bz>0 high latitude reconnection decreases polar cap size and transport to cusp.

30. Faraday’s law

31. Faraday’s law applications
Electro motors/generators
Transformers