1. Dr Marek Porzycki

2. 1. Basic function and purposes 2. Approaches – restrictive vs. expansionary 3. Monetary policy tools 4. Transmission mechanism 5. Unconventional tools applied during current crisis 6. Communication of monetary policy 7. Sources and reading

3. Steering the money supply - direct influence on the monetary base (M0) - indirect impact on monetary aggregates (M1 and above) via the transmission mechanism

4.  price stability objective  price stability vs other goals of monetary policy - economic growth - high employment - stability on financial markets  Poland: since 1999 the direct inflation target strategy has been applied in the implementation of monetary policy. The Monetary Policy Council defines the inflation target and then adjusts the NBP basic interest rates in order to maximise the probability of achieving the target. Since the beginning of 2004, NBP has pursued a continuous inflation target at the level of 2.5% with a permissible fluctuation band of +/- 1 percentage point. Note: legal aspects of central bank mandate will be discussed during the following courses

5.  Expansionary (loose) monetary policy – expansion of money supply - aiming at higher inflation (or at least accepting it) - stimulating economic growth - lower interest rates = cheaper lending - „doves”  Restrictive (tight, contractionary) monetary policy – money supply expands more slowly than usual or even shrinks - aiming to reduce inflation - cooling down overheated economy - higher interest rates = more expensive lending - „hawks”

6.  Reserve requirements (minimum reserves) - the proportion of total deposits that banks must hold as reserve with the central bank.  Standing facilities - aim to provide and absorb liquidity of banks, signal the general monetary policy stance and influence market interest rates.  Open market operations (OMO) - buying or selling assets (usually government bonds) on the open market from commercial banks and financial institutions

7.  a specified fraction of deposits kept with a commercial bank to be set aside in the central bank as mandatory reserve  deposits set aside as reserve cannot be used to finance lending - aims: ◦ limiting excess bank liquidity, putting upper limit on the money multiplier ◦ smoothing out the impact of movements in banking sector liquidity on interbank interest rates  Current values (as of 27.10.2015): - Poland: 3,5 % minus 500.000 EUR per credit institution - euro area: 1% minus100.000 EUR per institution

8.  Starting from 18.01.2012, the ECB has lowered the reserve requirement from previous 2% to 1% as one of measures intended to support bank lending (  expansionary monetary policy)  press release: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/20 11/html/pr111208_1.en.html http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/20 11/html/pr111208_1.en.html  However, this move did not reach its intended goal, as commercial banks preferred to deposit excess reserves at the ECB using the deposit facility.

9.  SF are aimed at providing and absorbing overnight liquidity, signal the general stance of monetary policy and influence overnight market interest rates  Central bank acts as „bank of banks” taking deposits and extending loans to commercial banks.  „standing” = can be used on the commercial banks’ initiative  Credit-deposit operations serve to limit fluctuations of the shortest (especially overnight) interbank market rates;

10.  primary credit or regular short-term lending (usually overnight) - Eurosystem: marginal lending facility, banks obtain overnight liquidity from the NCBs against eligible assets - Fed: discount window - NBP: lombard loans (kredyt lombardowy) extended to banks against Treasury securities as collateral in order to cover their short-term liquidity shortfalls.  in usual conditions interest rate applied to central bank lending sets a ceiling on interbank interest rates  current rates (27.10.2015): 0,30% (ECB), 2.50% (NBP)  to be distinguished from secondary lending or liquidity support  see below, unconventional tools

11.  short-term (overnight) deposits with the central bank, available to commercial banks  Time deposits at the central bank allow commercial banks to manage their surplus liquidity, preventing short-term interbank market interest rates from falling below the deposit rate.  Interest rate on overnight deposits sets floor to interbank lending rates, as the deposit facility allows banks to „park” any amount of money at the central bank at the deposit rate  Deposit rate is the lowest of central bank interest rates. Current ECB interest rate on deposit facility (as of 27.10.2015): -0,20% (  negative interest rate)  Corresponding NBP rate: 0,50%

12.  Aim: to encourage banks to boost lending to each other, to consumers, and to businesses, in turn boosting the broader economy, while discouraging hoarding liquidity ◦ instead of earning interest on money deposited with the central bank, banks are charged by the central bank to park their cash with it  But: the consequences may be unwelcome: ◦ banks can pass on to customers the costs they incur for depositing money with the central bank ◦ negative return on parking funds with the central bank might encourage banks to invest in riskier assets to secure a return, potentially driving new asset bubbles ◦ banks are likely to increase their purchases of government bonds  government borrowing costs are artificially low  banks and governments could find themselves so intertwined and interdependent that they drag each other - and the economy – down; crowding out effect may occur ◦ Experience in Sweden and Denmark (no noticeable change in the interest rates charged by banks for bank loans)

13.  initiated by the central bank  Basic form: purchases or sales of assets (mostly Treasury bonds) from financial institutions  Purchases of assets  expansion of monetary base, providing liquidity  Sales of assets  shrinking of monetary base, absorbing liquidity  Dynamic vs. defensive open market operations ◦ Defensive OMO: in response to or in anticipation of other market events  Repos (repurchase agreements) and reverse repos – purchases/sales reversed on a specified time, subject to specified interest rate  Outright transactions (purchase/sale without an agreement to reverse the transaction)

14.  Other instruments used – collateralised loans, issuance of debt certificates by the central bank, swaps, fixed- term deposits ◦ NBP: issue of own-debt securities (7-day NBP money market bills), whose minimum yield equals the reference rate adopted by the Monetary Policy Council.  Difference in aims and regularity (Eurosystem examples): ◦ main refinancing operations: liquidity-providing transactions with a weekly frequency and a maturity of normally one week ◦ long-term refinancing operations (LTRO, transactions with a monthly frequency and a maturity of normally three months; see also unconventional monetary policy) ◦ fine-tuning operations (conducted on an ad hoc basis in order to smooth the effects on interest rates caused by unexpected liquidity fluctuations in the market) ◦ structural operations, e.g. the issuance of debt certificates

15.  From the ECB website Date: 06/06/2014 Action: Fine-tuning operation Communication: As announced by the Governing Council on 10 May 2010, the ECB conducts specific operations in order to re-absorb the liquidity injected through the Securities Markets Programme (SMP). In this regard, the ECB will carry out a quick tender on 10 June 2014 at 11.30 in order to collect one-week fixed-term deposits with settlement day on 11 June 2014. A variable rate tender with a maximum bid rate of 0.15% will be applied and the ECB intends to absorb an amount of EUR 162.5 billion. (…).

16.  Lending by central banks should be based on adequate collateral (assets submitted by commercial banks as security).  Treasury bonds and other marketable assets (e.g. credit claims) are usually used as collateral.  Lombard loans extended by the Polish NBP: collateral consists of Treasury securities and the amount of loan may not exceed 80% of their nominal value  Central banks maintain a list of eligible collateral and update it from time to time (example: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/paym/coll/assets/html/list.en.html) http://www.ecb.europa.eu/paym/coll/assets/html/list.en.html  Risky collateral, e.g. bonds with lower credit risk rating, may be eligible under certain circumstances but valuation haircuts may be applied to reflect higher risk. Example: use of Greek sovereign bonds as collateral for Eurosystem monetary policy operations

17.  Institutions allowed to contract with the central bank within the monetary policy framework.  Broadly: commercial banks and similar institutions.  Eurosystem eligibility criteria – eligible institutions should be: - subject to minimum reserve requirement - in financially sound condition - subject to financial supervision by competent authorities - fulfilling operational criteria

18.  Interest rates applied by central banks to respective monetary policy instruments  Announced by the central banks and changed in reaction to monetary policy needs: - rate increase – tightening the monetary policy, aimed at reduction of the money supply - rate decrease – easing the monetary policy, aimed at expansion of the money supply  Influence on conditions on the money market (interbank market and transactions between banks and the general public) and in the general economy via the transmission mechanism.

19.  Examples:  ECB http://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.e n.htmlhttp://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.e n.html („Interest rates”) http://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/monetary/rat es/html/index.en.html  NBP http://www.nbp.pl/http://www.nbp.pl/ („Stopy procentowe NBP”) http://www.nbp.pl/homen.aspx?f=/en/dzienn e/stopy.htm

20.  Reserve requirements - useful as a limit of possible money creation but not suitable for rapid changes in answer to changing conditions on the market.  Standing facilities – useful to influence interest rates on the market but not suitable for reacting to daily fluctuations.  Open market operations – more flexible, initiated by the central bank at any time and with any volume needed. Easily reversible.

21.  combination of the monetary policy and the fiscal policy, as two channels influencing growth and employment  They are generally determined, respectively, by the central bank and the government  Monetary and fiscal policies affect each other, and the right policy mix is supposed to achieve desirable macroeconomic outcomes such as price stability, credit availability, economic growth and financial stability  An example of a policy mix would be tight monetary policy combined with easy fiscal policy.

22.  Function of „bank of banks”  central banks deal directly only with commercial banks but not with the general public.  Proper functioning of the monetary policy requires transmission of measures taken by the central bank through commercial banks to the economy.  Transmission channels include credit and deposit businesses of the commercial banks, asset prices, currency exchange rates and indirectly also wage and price-setting resulting from supply and demand of goods, services and labour.  Transmission mechanism is affected by events beyond control of the central bank, such as global economic developments, commodity prices, political events etc.

23.  Source: ECB, http://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/intro/transmission/html/index.en.html http://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/intro/transmission/html/index.en.html

24.  Specific problems with transmission of expansive monetary policy in periods of recession.  „Zero interest rate policy” („ZIRP”) and negative interest rates. ◦ ZIRP: the central bank maintains a 0% nominal interest rate. ◦ central bank is no longer able to reduce nominal interest rates  Liquidity trap: injections of cash into the private banking system by a central bank fail to decrease interest rates and hence make monetary policy ineffective ◦ A liquidity trap is caused when people hoard cash because they expect an adverse event such as deflation, insufficient aggregate demand, or war. ◦ Japan: the economy fell into a period of prolonged stagnation despite near-zero interest rates

25.  Expanding the monetary base does not increase money supply as long as banks do not start credit expansion.  Monetary policy alone is not able to kick-start economic growth. ◦ Central banks can encourage money creation, but they cannot force commercial banks to extend credit ◦ money cannot be pushed from the central bank to borrowers if they do not wish to borrow  compared to „pushing on a string” ◦ "Monetary policy [is] asymmetric; it being easier to stop an expansion than to end a severe contraction.” (R.G. Sandilans)

26.  crisis-related, extremely expansive monetary policy in order to stimulate economic growth  applied when interest rate cuts have failed to stimulate monetary expansion („pushing on a string”) and further cuts are next to impossible (zero or negative interest rates)  asset purchases - quantitative easing (QE)  Long term open market operations – LTRO  liquidity support – e.g. Emergency Liquidity Assistance (acting as „lender of last resort”)  commitment to further actions

27.  Central banks purchase large volume of financial assets (mostly Treasury bonds) from banks, creating new money to pay for them.  Direct effects of QE: ◦ Raising the prices of those financial assets and lowering their yield while simultaneously increasing the monetary base [ [  As banks buy Treasury bonds in order to re-sell them to the central bank, QE is sometimes considered to circumvent the prohibition on monetary financing (lending by the central bank to the Treasury). Purchases of Treasury bonds by the central bank are legal if occuring on the secondary market, but prohibited on primary market (directly from the Treasury).  Result: large expansion of the monetary base (M0)  first applied in Japan since 2001, then by several central banks after 2007

28.  started in January 2015, intended to last at least until September 2016  monthly asset purchases amounting to €60 billion  assets purchased include bonds issued by euro area central governments, agencies and European institutions, in addition to private sector assets  justified by the need to „address the risks of a too prolonged period of low inflation”  i.e. the ECB’s price stability mandate  monetary stimulus to the economy also mentioned See more: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2015/ht ml/pr150122_1.en.html http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2015/ht ml/pr150122_1.en.html

29.  secondary lending or liquidity support  Central bank acts as „lender of last resort” providing liquidity to disstressed (but solvent) banks. - Eurosystem: Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA)  providing liquidity to solvent banks facing temporary liquidity problems (e.g. withdrawal of deposits, lack of access to interbank lending).  function: preventing bank runs.  Not applicable to insolvent banks which should be subject to bank resolution tools or insolvency proceedings.

30.  On 21.3.2013 the ECB announced that Emergency Liquidity Assisstance to Cypriot banks would be continued only until 25.3, unless a programme to ensure their solvency is put in place. http://www.ecb.int/press/pr/date/2013/html/pr130 321.en.html http://www.ecb.int/press/pr/date/2013/html/pr130 321.en.html  On 25.3 a bailout deal was reached between Cyprus and the Eurogroup (Eurozone finance ministers).  On 25.3 the ECB decided to continue providing ELA to Cypriot banks, based on the assumption that the bailout maintained their solvency. http://www.ecb.int/press/pr/date/2013/html/pr130 325.en.html http://www.ecb.int/press/pr/date/2013/html/pr130 325.en.html

31.  Function: sending signals to the markets  Example: speech by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, on 26.7.2012 „Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough.” http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2012/ht ml/sp120726.en.html http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2012/ht ml/sp120726.en.html  Understood as commitment to unlimited asset purchases.  Follow-up: launch of Outright Monetary Transactions on 6.9.2012 (never actually used)  http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2012/html /pr120906_1.en.html http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2012/html /pr120906_1.en.html 

32.  Does QE mean „printing money”?  QE and other forms of unconventional monetary policy result in a large expansion of central banks’ balance sheets  expansion of monetary base (M0)  However, inflation results from the increase of total money supply, including not only M0 but mostly money created by commercial banks (M1, M2).  As banks mostly deposited additional funds obtained from QE as deposits in the central banks (excess reserves), lending expansion did not occur and there was no increase in total money supply.

33.  As long as commercial banks do not start credit expansion using the expanded monetary base, overall money supply remains low and inflation does not result.  Once credit expansion exceeds a certain degree, central banks would need to restrict monetary policy, including shrinking the monetary base in order to avoid inflation („exit strategy”).  Too early tightening of the monetary policy could push the economy into deep recession.  In case of a too late tightening, inflation can result from expanded monetary base being used to finance lending.

34.  In order to be efficient, monetary policy needs to be predictable.  explaining monetary policy in detail to the general public  publishing long-term strategies and policies  declaring „approaches” in monetary policy  regular meetings of the rate-setting bodies, followed by press conferences  publication of minutes of discussion of the rate-setting bodies

35.  „Monetary Policy Guidelines” – a yearly strategy document by the NBP http://www.nbp.pl/polityka_pieniezna/doku menty/zalozenia/zalozenia_pp_2016.pdf http://www.nbp.pl/polityka_pieniezna/doku menty/zalozenia/zalozenia_pp_2016.pdf  ECB communication channels explained: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/strategy/co mm/html/index.en.html http://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/strategy/co mm/html/index.en.html

36.  F. Mishkin, The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Pearson, 10 th ed. 2013 - monetary policy tools, p. 418-431 - price stability and other goals: Chapter 17, p. 434-461  ECB website http://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/html/index.en.html (see menu on the left side of the website) http://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/html/index.en.html  NBP website http://www.nbp.pl/homen.aspx?f=/en/onbp/informacje/p olityka_pieniezna.html http://www.nbp.pl/homen.aspx?f=/en/onbp/informacje/p olityka_pieniezna.html  Fed website http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/default.ht m http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/default.ht m  For Polish readers: A. Sławiński (red.), Polityka pieniężna, Warszawa 2011

37.  most comprehensive and detailed description of the Eurosystem monetary policy  set in the ECB Guideline (EU) 2015/510 of 19 December 2014 on the implementation of the Eurosystem monetary policy framework (ECB/2014/60)  http://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb/legal/pdf/oj_j ol_2015_091_r_0002_en_txt.pdf http://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb/legal/pdf/oj_j ol_2015_091_r_0002_en_txt.pdf

38.  Try yourself in monetary policy – €CONOMIA - The Monetary Policy Game on the ECB website: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb/educational/e conomia/html/index.en.html http://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb/educational/e conomia/html/index.en.html