1. Climate Science Keith Burrows Science Teachers for Climate Awareness This presentation is designed for those who wish to provide a reasoned argument against the ever proliferating confusion over climate science. Newer versions of this presentation and others can be found at: www.vicphysics.orgwww.vicphysics.org Follow the link from the ‘Climate Change’ link on the ‘Home’ page. Be sure to look at the ‘Notes pages’ (below) for added comments to help in presenting and for more information and sources. Please feel free to email me with suggestions for improvements or useful comments. This presentation is designed for around an hour (or more with expansion of some of the points) Latest version 23 Feb 2010

2. Countering Climate Confusion What to say to ‘sceptics’ Download from www.vicphysics.org

3.  The basic reason for concern is the fundamental science (not rising temperatures or sea levels). –CO 2 captures heat radiation from the ground and sends it back. –The greenhouse effect is well understood. It is crucial to life on Earth. –We know we are increasing the greenhouse effect. The question is by how much and what will happen. –We know the Earth is capable of wild swings of climate from ‘Snowball Earth’ to ‘Hothouse Earth’. Countering Climate Confusion CC C – Main Points

4. CCC – Basic science

5. Some scientific bodies who have issued statements stressing the need for action on climate change – USA only  National Academies of Science  National Research Council  American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)  National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)  National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)  NASA's Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS)  American Institute of Physics  Woods Hole Research Center  Union of Concerned Scientists  Federal Climate Change Science Program  American Geophysical Union  Geological Society of America  American Chemical Society - (world's largest scientific organization)  Federal Climate Change Science Program - commissioned by Bush!  American Association of State Climatologists  US Geological Survey  Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)  Pew Center on Climate Change

6. UN Project on Climate Variability and Predictability UN Project on Climate Variability and Predictability United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) United Nations Environment Program United Nations Environment Program World Meteorological Organization World Meteorological Organization International Council on Science International Council on Science The Royal Society (UK) The Royal Society (UK) The Institute of Physics (UK) The Institute of Physics (UK) Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (CMOS) Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (CMOS) Geological Society of London Geological Society of London The Australian Academy of Sciences The Australian Academy of Sciences The Institution of Engineers Australia The Institution of Engineers Australia The Australian Meteorological And Oceanographic Society The Australian Meteorological And Oceanographic Society … and many more! … and many more! Some scientific bodies who have issued statements stressing the need for action on climate change – Rest of World

7.  Second counter:  It is easy to create confusion, about climate science, but much harder to clarify it.  Denier arguments often ‘look reasonable’, but always fall down on close inspection. But all they need to do is create confusion.  This is strong evidence that climate change is serious! CCC – Basic science

8.  Third major counter: CCC – Risk management

9. Would you get on this aeroplane if 1 out of 10 engineers found dangerous cracks in the wings? Would you get on this aeroplane if 1 out of 10 engineers found dangerous cracks in the wings?

10. How about if 9 out of 10 engineers said there were dangerous cracks in the wings but 1 said they didn’t matter? How about if 9 out of 10 engineers said there were dangerous cracks in the wings but 1 said they didn’t matter?

11. That’s about the proportion of climate scientists saying climate change is dangerous! That’s about the proportion of climate scientists saying climate change is dangerous!

12. Actually it is more like over 95% “This image was digitally altered!” That’s about the proportion of climate scientists saying climate change is dangerous! That’s about the proportion of climate scientists saying climate change is dangerous!

13.  Normally we don’t take risks where lives are at risk. CCC – Risk Management

14. www.gregcraven.org

15. CCC – Risk Management www.gregcraven.org

16. CCC – Risk Management Disaster!

17. “What if we create a better world and it turns out we didn’t need to?”

18. CCC – Risk Management Do the ‘sceptics’ ask themselves this question? www.gregcraven.org

19.  Third major counter: Genuine sceptics will answer this by saying we should take precautions. Deniers simply don’t seem to hear the question! CCC – Risk management What if you are wrong?

20. ‘Climate sceptics’ and ‘climate deniers’ Climate sceptics  Scepticism is an important part of science. Scientists always try to question and test their theories.  Scientific sceptics discuss their questions with other scientists through the peer reviewed journals. Climate deniers  Deniers take the supposed ‘debate’ to the public – inappropriately. They avoid discussions with the scientific community.  Deniers express no doubt about their position – or they would have to take action in case they are wrong.

21.  So:  Basic science says adding CO 2 must warm the Earth.  Confusion is easy, but hides a potential catastrophe.  Why on Earth would we risk the only planet we have?  A little more on each of these... Countering Climate Confusion

22.  Why is the Earth at just the right temperature for us? CCC – Some basic science

23. The Big Picture

24. EARTH: Atmosphere: N 2, O 2, H 2 O and a little CO 2 Mean temperature: +15 o C Just right! Why?

25. Earth’s energy balance CCC – Some basic science

26. So what determines the Earth’s temperature?  The balance between the energy coming in ... and that going out.

27.  Earth’s energy balance –Two simple laws of physics enable us to figure out the energy balance:  The Stefan-Boltzmann law... I = εσT 4  Wien’s law... λ max = 0.0029 /T –S-B just tells us how much heat a hot object radiates. –Wien tells us what sort of radiation it will be. (but fortunately others have done the hard work for us!) CCC – Some basic physics

28.  Svante August Arrhenius worked it out in 1896 CCC – Some basic physics

29.  Svante August Arrhenius worked it out in 1896 “The Earth’s average temperature should be about –18 o C” ? CCC – Some basic physics

30.  Svante August Arrhenius worked it out in 1896 “Ah! The atmosphere must be trapping the heat” CCC – Some basic physics

31.  Svante August Arrhenius worked it out in 1896 “But Oxygen and Nitrogen can’t absorb the infrared radiation” ? CCC – Some basic physics

32.  Svante August Arrhenius worked it out in 1896 “It must be the water vapour and carbon dioxide!” CCC – Some basic physics

33.  Svante August Arrhenius worked it out in 1896 “Together they absorb heat and re-emit enough back to Earth to raise the temperature by +33degrees!” CCC – Some basic physics “Doubling CO 2 should raise the Earth’s temperature about 5°C”

34.  Earth’s energy balance: –Not all the IR radiation from the surface escapes immediately... –or the average temperature would be a freezing –18°C –No liquid water or clouds –And no life!  This is very well established physics!  Earth’s energy balance: –Not all the IR radiation from the surface escapes immediately... –or the average temperature would be a freezing –18°C –No liquid water or clouds –And no life!  This is very well established physics! CCC – Some basic physics

35. So how does the atmosphere keep us +33°C warmer? CCC – Some basic science

36.  How do air molecules ‘trap’ the IR radiation? Nitrogen (N 2 ): 78% Water vapour (H 2 O): 0% – 1% Oxygen (O 2 ): 21% Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ): 0.04% (was 0.03%)

37.  Nitrogen (N 2 ) and oxygen (O 2 ) molecules:  Two atoms ‘tightly bound’ CCC – Some basic science

38.  Water (H 2 O) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) molecules:  Three atoms ‘loosely bound’ CCC – Some basic science

39.  Nitrogen and oxygen molecules:  Light ‘photons’ (visible and IR) go right through N 2 and O 2 CCC – Some basic science

40.  Water and carbon dioxide molecules:  Infrared photons get absorbed by H 2 O and CO 2 molecules (and give them energy) CCC – Some basic science

41.  Water and carbon dioxide molecules:  The H 2 O and CO 2 don’t keep the energy...  they ‘re-radiate’ it. CCC – Some basic science

42.  Some of this re-radiated IR goes back down and warms the surface – a little like a greenhouse...  The so called “Greenhouse Effect”  This keeps the Earth at a warm +15 o C (average) instead of that freezing –18 o C CCC – Some basic science

43.  In other words we understand the basic science very well.  The two key questions are:  By how much will our CO 2 emissions increase the temperature?  What will be the effect of that increase? Countering Climate Confusion

44.  By how much will our CO 2 emissions increase the temperature?  This is complex, but there are a number of different approaches– –Look at the physics (climate models) –Look at the past (palaeoclimate) –Look at the effect of recent changes (volcanoes etc) –Measure it... Countering Climate Confusion

45.  Car CCC – Some basic science 1°C per 50 years +70 ppm +0.6°C

46.  But it is a lot more complicated than that! –Thermal inertia (delayed action) –Non-linear problem (2 + 2 = 4!) –Feedback effects (positive and negative)  This is the big one!  But most reliable estimates are around 2°C – 5°C per doubling of CO 2 Most likely ~3°C  Deniers have to find ways to claim that this is less than 1°C! (Usually by dodgy calculations) CCC – Some basic science X

47.  This is where computer models come in handy! CCC – Some not so basic science

48. IPCC

49. The basic data needed is measured in various ways and is well known. Notice that overall, incoming equals outgoing (342 = 107 + 235). Also, that large amounts of energy are absorbed and re-radiated by greenhouse gases. (IPCC graph)

50.  Scientists put all the laws of physics and chemistry into computer models which can do the vast numbers of calculations needed.  Some of the basic equations: CCC – Some not so basic science

51.  The models divide the atmosphere and ocean into cells about 1 km deep CCC – Some not so basic science

52.  Remember this:  Economic computer models take human guesses about other human’s behaviour.  Scientific models take the very well known laws of physics and chemistry and apply rigorous maths.  There is a VERY BIG difference between economic and scientific computer models!  And climate models can be tested... CCC – Some not so basic science

53.  Results of models: CCC – Some not so basic science

54.  Ignoring our emissions: CCC – Some not so basic science Cooling Wrong!

55.  Including our emissions: CCC – Some not so basic science Warming Correct!

56.  This is one reason climate scientists are confident that they have the basic science correct.  And those models predict more warming: 3° → 5°C this century...  unless we cut emissions! CCC – Some not so basic science

57.  The basic reason for concern is the fundamental science (not rising temperatures or sea levels). –CO 2 captures heat radiation from the ground and sends it back. –The greenhouse effect is well understood. It is crucial to life on Earth. –We know we are increasing the greenhouse effect. The question is by how much and what will happen. –We know the Earth is capable of wild swings of climate from ‘Snowball Earth’ to ‘Hothouse Earth’. Countering Climate Confusion – Recap

58.  Plimer says “the climate has always changed” – we just have to get used to it. Palaeoclimate Confusion “If we humans, in a fit of ego, think we can change these normal planetary processes, then we need stronger medication.”

59. Hothouse Earth Snowball Earth In the last 500 million years the climate has swung between ‘Hothouse Earth’ and ‘Snowball Earth’ Palaeoclimate Confusion

62.  The last ‘interglacial’ – similar to current climate.  Maybe ~2°C warmer than last century average...

63. during the last interglacial period when sea level peaked at around 6 metres higher than today. His findings suggest that at one point the sea rose 3 metres within 50 to 100 years.” “Paul Blanchon's team at the National Autonomous University of Mexico in Cancun has been studying 121,000 year old coral reefs in the Yucatan Peninsula, formed Temperatures in that interglacial were only a couple of degrees warmer than the 20 th C. July 2009

64. Climate science  Sea level in last inter- glacial 12 m higher than today

65. Palaeoclimate Confusion  Climate change in the time of human civilization has been very minor ±½°C.  Talk of ‘warm Greenland’ is just a distraction.  The climate change we are looking at is far more drastic than anything humans have experienced.

66. Palaeoclimate Confusion +3°CPliocene

67. Pliocene Sea levels between 25 and 75 metres higher than today

68. The rest of these slides are a selection from the “What’s wrong with deniers?” presentation. (MisconceptionsKB2.ppt) Download from www.vicphysics.org

69. “The UN is using the global warming scare in order to impose world government” Present Climate Confusion

70. Science Teachers & Climate Change  Media coverage

71. Science Teachers & Climate Change  Media coverage:

72. Science Teachers & Climate Change  Even in the more ‘reputable’ press there is support for the ‘sceptics’

73. 1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped” “Lord Monckton of Brenchley” Only 7 years!

74. 1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped” “Lord Monckton of Brenchley”

75. 1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped”

76. 40 years

77. Typical yearly variation compared to yearly warming trend

78. WEATHER CLIMATE CHANGE Which is why we notice the weather more than climate change!

79. Many have suggested the cool spell in the N. hemisphere suggests GW has stopped. What they don’t realise is that it was a ‘local’ effect. The rest of the world MORE THAN MADE UP for their cooling. But many deniers live in the cool regions!

81. 1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped”  For this reason we should look at decade trends or long term averages CSIRO graph 11 year averages

82. 1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped”  For this reason we should look at decade trends or long term averages

83. Which is more likely? OR

84. But temperatures are falling while CO 2 is rising!

85. 3-3 “Correlation between temperature and CO2 levels.” Typical ‘denier’ graph: Short term 1998- 2008 Short term 1998- 2008 Starts on high ends on low Starts on high ends on low Deceptive scale (looks like more than 10 years) Deceptive scale (looks like more than 10 years) Looks ‘official’ Looks ‘official’

86. 3-3 “Correlation between temperature and CO2 levels.”

87. 3-4 “Climate science isn’t settled”  True! Science is never ‘settled’ and climate activists should stop saying it is.  The point is that there is a large amount of evidence to suggest that we are dangerously interfering with the climate.  Science always works by different groups advocating different approaches and often getting different results.  By continually checking and re-checking, eventually results begin to agree and consensus emerges.  There is not yet a complete consensus, but there IS strong opinion that we are changing the climate dangerously.

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