1. REFINING BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION CORRIDORS WORKSHOP CONTEXT ANALYSIS WORKING GROUP DECEMBER 7 – 9, 2004

2. Definition of Context Analysis Iterative process of reviewing, consolidating, and analyzing factors that influence the state of biodiversity, these being [or including?] socio-cultural, economical, institutional, political, and geographical data and information* * This includes both quantitative and qualitative data, as well as georeferenced and non-georeferenced data, including time- series data (for analyzing trends)

3. Purpose of Context Analysis Understand/predict threats, constraints, and opportunities Identify relevant stakeholders Select, time, and implement responses with highest likelihood of achieving conservation success Support selection of parameters to monitor to anticipate and respond proactively to threats and ops Communication, engagement, advocacy, facilitation of buy-in and participation (e.g., offer useful analyses for free that will give us key access, attention, and credibility)

4. Position of Context Analysis Within Corridor Planning Process

5. Biodiversity Analysis Context Analysis Who are key stakeholders (those with significant impact/influence/relationship)? How are they interacting with biodiversity? Why are they interacting with resources the way they are? Threats to Biodiversity Status Opportunities to Influence Biodiversity Status Integrate Analyses and Select Responses Biodiversity targets and requirements State, trends and future predictions on biodiversity status Monitor, Evaluate, Adapt

6. Products of Context Analysis The articulation of present interpretation of dynamics (historical, current, future) of assessed key factors that are influencing change in biodiversity status, represented in maps, text, indicators, parameters, criteria, assumptions, and key hypotheses.

7. Major Themes of Corridor Context Analysis Governance and Policy Landscape Dynamics Economics Population

8. Governance and Policy Key Data sets Institutional Maps, Political Boundaries, Development Plans, Land/Sea Tenure, Conflict and Displacement, Legislation, Key stakeholders with regional interest and impact Key Questions –What are key institutions, roles, and relationships? –Are existing policies working and being enforced? –Who is making decisions regarding resource use and management? –What is legislation governing use of biodiversity? –What are decision making processes? –Characterization of political stability –What are development plans? –What is basic unit and governing structures over land tenure? –What are major points of conflict who, why, implications? –Is there accountability (who is and to whom)? –What is their Power balance? –Level of corruption / transparency –What is capacity of key decision makers? –Are there mechanisms for making information for decision making?

9. Landscape Dynamics Key Data Sets Existing PAs (by type and area), Geophysical structures, Land use, Infrastructure (roads, dams, ports, etc.), Vegetation maps Key Questions –What does infrastructure look like now and how will it change? –What are the options for creating and expanding new PAs, including what kind, and what size? –What is effectiveness of PAs (PA analysis requires target info)? –What are trends in land use change (historical and future)? –Where are the habitats, where is change likely, why, time-scale? –What are the historical trends in infrastructure and landuse, and projections? –What are the dominant geophysical structures?

10. Economics Key Data Sets Foreign Investments, Types of corporate interest, primary economic activities, markets and trade policy Key Questions –What are the main economic sectors (drivers, volatility and tendencies)? –Characterization of extractive industries –What, how many and where are the markets? –Which sectors are receiving the foreign and domestic investment (how much [trends and projections])? –What is economic policy (e.g. subsidies)? –How are specific sectors of industry increasing or decreasing in comparative advantage in relation others? –Evaluate the techonology of the economic sector (existing best practices)

11. Population Key Data Sets Level of education, Poverty indicators and distributions, Health conditions, Growth rate of human population, Migration patterns of human population, Population size, Population distribution, Cultural distribution (language, religion, sacred places, archelogical sites, Indigenous groups, etc.) Key Questions/Analyses –Where are displaced people going / likely to go… and why are they going? –What are past/present/future population dynamics? –What are past/present/future dynamics of employment and income? –How/at what rate are new technologies adopted? –Characterization of distribution of poverty –What is the education infrastructure? –What is the spatial distribution of the level of education?

12. Considerations to Focus Context Analysis We should have a solid understanding of economics, population, governance, and landscape dynamics, to the extent possible. If necessary, we can limit or focus context analysis by prioritizing questions that focus on: Factors with significant influence over specific defined biodiversity targets (where possible) Primary threats/Perceived threats Key opportunities Analysis also will be constrained by availability of data, time, and resources

13. Initiating Context Analysis Process Normally starts with first-cut analysis sufficient to answer following questions: –What is size and geography of area of analysis? –Who are key stakeholders (more or less) to determine with whom we may work and who we may target with analysis. Who are our primary allies? Who has decision making authority with significant impact within corridor? Who are the enemies? Who are the likely donors? –What are primary sources of threat and opportunity?

14. Some Thoughts on Best Practices Context analysis must be an iterative process that must be refined as data become available, as new questions arise Context information should be managed so that it can easily be updated A minimum data set is needed to support decision making (but we didn’t define what this is exactly) Important to move beyond most accessible information or information already in hand/head Nonetheless, it can be a somewhat informal process Both “hard” data and qualitative data should be used Ensure that questions and analysis are scaled for corridor analysis

15. Outstanding Questions in Context Analysis “Best Practices” Discussion What qualifies as minimum context analysis necessary at corridor scale? (i.e., is there a subset of the “key questions” that are more critical to answer than others?) What are recommended approaches to conduct specific elements of the analysis (e.g., stakeholder analysis, analysis of governance)? Are there criteria we can apply to help us to focus or orient context analyses at the appropriate scale? (i.e., to select specific high priority key questions to answer) How do we measure the success of a corridor (from a biological perspective, socioeconomic/contextual perspective, from a cons. action perspective)? What are basic capacity requirements of context analysis and how to meet these requirements? Are there techniques we can use to continuously update our understanding of context without doing full-blown, complex analyses? Does context analysis approach differ in hotspots and wilderness areas?

16. Research Priorities Environmental Services –Relationship between agricultural production and intact biological systems –How to estimate and quantify environmental services? Relationship between change in biodiversity status and the spread or control of Disease e.g., Hantavirus, Rabies, Leishmeniosis Characterize potential for new market/new chemicals or derivates of forest/biodiversity resources How to influence market demand to curb biodiversity loss? Means to improve enforcement (build on and operationalize enforcement econ study) Strengthening governance and legislation, particularly in processes of decentralization

17. Research Priorities (2) Landscape ecology and applications to CI’s corridor approach. In particular, how to conduct “small scale landscape ecology” What types of institutional frameworks are necessary for incentives/market to work? Subsidies: Biodiversity Impact/Conservation More botany! Habitat requirement models Pilot testing our corridor approach (necessitating measures/monitoring/etc) What might be sufficiently robust indicators of context (to support rapid assessment)? ***Note importance of question of human resources: what are the needs regarding this type of research and how to build capacity?

18. Tools and Key Resources to Develop Consolidation of methods/analysis used to address specific context assessment questions (methods and data sets) Simple examples of conducting context analysis including set of sample questions Revisit notion and lessons learned for “Corridor Information System” (supporting organization/ mgmt of GIS data) Consolidation and dissemination of global data sets Central library/server for shapefiles/maps/data Land/Sea interactions and corridor building More accessible and user friendly GIS software and decision support tools to support participatory decision making

19. Recommend more organized approach and plan to promote exchange of experiences System/processes/platforms for quickly and effectively sharing tools/info/technology/software Outline processes for jointly refining tools and frameworks Outline processes for receiving feedback and strategies between DC and regions and across regions Promoting Exchange in Future

20. Parking Lot Issues for Integrated Discussion When do we have enough information on targets to initiate context analysis? How can we get first level target definition efficiently/quickly so that planning can proceed? Identification and characterization of environmental services Climate change and how to build into our strategies: ecology, and economics/adaptation/mitigation At what point in process do we articulate and characterize the behaviors and conditions that need to change to achieve conservation outcomes? How do we make these determinations?