1. © Nuffield Trust 4 July 2012 Future funding scenarios for the NHS and social care in England Adam Roberts Research Analyst www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/nhs-financial-challenge

2. © Nuffield Trust Background This presentation: Previous trends in health care spending Scenarios for health care funding Scenarios for social care funding Combined affect on other areas of public spending Also covered in the report: Assumptions International comparisons

3. © Nuffield Trust History of UK NHS spending

4. © Nuffield Trust Three NHS funding scenarios (real terms)

5. © Nuffield Trust Three NHS funding scenarios (% of national income)

6. © Nuffield Trust Two social care funding scenarios (real-terms)

7. © Nuffield Trust Trade-off between NHS and other public service spending given health and social care spending, 2015/16 to 2021/22

8. © Nuffield Trust Trade-off between NHS and other public service spending given health and social care spending, 2015/16 to 2021/22

9. © Nuffield Trust Trade-off between NHS and other public service spending given health and social care spending, 2015/16 to 2021/22

10. © Nuffield Trust Trade-off between NHS and other public service spending given public and social care spending, 2015/16 to 2021/22

11. © Nuffield Trust Trade-off between NHS and other public service spending given public and social care spending, 2015/16 to 2021/22

12. © Nuffield Trust Trade-off between non-NHS spending and tax increases/welfare cuts given various NHS/social care funding scenarios, 2015/16 to 2021/22

13. © Nuffield Trust Trade-off between non-NHS spending and tax increases/welfare cuts given NHS funding levels, 2015/16 to 2021/22

14. © Nuffield Trust Conclusions From 2010/11 to 2014/15 the NHS faces its tightest budget of last 50 years Beyond then, even maintaining share of national income will be tough Period of austerity likely to extend well into the next decade Only a long-term freeze in other public service budgets/large tax increases would allow NHS funding to grow at historic levels Pressures on health and social care likely to rise (see future reports) Without unprecedented productivity gains, there is likely to be a rapid growth in the gap between the demand for care and the ability to provide high-quality services

15. © Nuffield Trust 4 July 2012 www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk Sign-up for our newsletter www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/newsletter Follow us on Twitter: Twitter.com/NuffieldTrust © Nuffield Trust adam.roberts@nuffieldtrust.org.uk