1. GIRA Meat Club 2003 Far East: Beef Marie-Pierre Boudet

2. GIRA Meat Club 2003 Continuous Rise in Imports

3. GIRA Meat Club 2003 Japan: Despite demand recovery and limited domestic beef supply, high international prices slow down the recovery in import volumes S. Korea: Imports were low this year due to the economic downturn, high export offer prices and high inventory levels China: Lower tariff in 2004 hence higher imports of high-end muscle meat and beef cuts (domestic production is inadequate) Philippines: expanding domestic meat processing industry, hence a rise in meat imports in both 2003 and 2004 Taiwan: Imports will benefit from the Taiwan economic recovery this year and the next + reduction in tariffs India: Exports of buffalo meat are forecast to grow : increasing demand from traditional and emerging markets in both 2003 and 2004 Overall Market Growth

4. GIRA Meat Club 2003 Consumption Affected by High Prices, better outlook for 2004 3.0% 4.0% -0.3% 0.9% 0.4% 2.5% 3.2% 8.5% 1.7% 2.9% 12.7% 6.1% China (4.6kg): rising income continue to favour growth in beef consumption India (2.4kg): high prices prevent any big consumption growth Japan (10kg): fewer price promotions beef and cooler weather slowed down beef consumption recovery in 2003. High prices expected again next year S. Korea (11kg): lower rise in 2003 for economic reasons and high beef prices. Elections and higher GDP growth in 2004 Philippines (5kg): relative poor economic conditions. Elections planned in 2004 Taiwan (4kg): increasing purchasing power in both years

5. GIRA Meat Club 2003 JP Consumption Recovery First 8 m. Beef marketing quantities rose by 5.4% on last year level August was hampered by the cool weather (lower barbequing) High prices during the rest of the year prevents price promotions Consumption is thus expected to increase only slightly this year (+0.4%) +5.4%/2002 -12.4%/2001 Stronger recovery expected in 2004, +2.5% (providing weather is better)

6. GIRA Meat Club 2003 Retail Prices have been very High this Year +7% +2%

7. GIRA Meat Club 2003 Imported Products still more Affected than Domestic +9% -10% -2% / 2001 -31%+18% -19% / 2001

8. GIRA Meat Club 2003 Recovery in Imports in 2003 (+20%) Decrease in imports in 2002 as more promotions on domestic beef +23% This year, the low stock levels make it necessary to import more, despite very high imported prices Given the tight situation in Australia and the US, trade has been relatively slow during the end of the year (very high prices) 2004: high international prices are likely to slow the growth in imports (+3%)

9. GIRA Meat Club 2003 Australia dominates the chilled sector (55%) The US dominates the frozen sector (48%) Australia has suffered from a strengthening of the Australian dollar and its tight supplies However, given soaring US prices, some users of US beef have shifted to lower quality Australian beef Similar situation expected for 2004 Tight Supplies in 2003 and 2004

10. GIRA Meat Club 2003 Herd Contraction Stopped in S. Korea -23% -3% +4%

11. GIRA Meat Club 2003 KR Imports Suffered from High Prices in 2003 Surge in imports in 2002 (full liberalisation): +78% ! Early 2003: rise in imports again (high domestic prices, appreciation of the won) Starting in July higher import prices and slow down in consumption (economic downturn) Rise in inventories But still interest for imported products, cheaper than domestic Strong rise in chilled imports (no restrictions any more) 2.3% increase expected in 2003 2004 should increase by 5% (economic recovery and slight decrease in import prices along with Canada re- entry)

12. GIRA Meat Club 2003 Australian Continuous Loss of Shares US share keeps on growing (66% of imports in 2003) High prices and inadequate supplies of Australia Short ribs are the favourite product in S. Korea 2004 should see a stronger competition between high priced US beef and lower priced Australian beef

13. GIRA Meat Club 2003 Indian Buffalo Meat mostly destined to Muslim Countries The rise in exports have led to a rise in buffalo culling in 2003 Exports of buffalo meat are forecast to grow to cater to the increasing demand from traditional and emerging markets in both 2003 and 2004 (Indian products are particularly cheap), +12% annually India exporters expect to send: –30 to 50 000 tonnes to Saudi Arabia (once lifted the ban) –Jordan, Kuwait and Lebanon have become a major re-exporter of buffalo mat to Iraq –Egypt should re-open its market to Indian products

14. GIRA Meat Club 2003 Continuous Rise in Chinese Production China production is mostly made up of small holders with 2 to 3 cows China cattle industry is still faced with problems (genetics, expensive feed, unconsistent quality, lack of comprehensive veterinary system, under-developped abattoirs) However the government is keen on reducing imports and encourage exports, hence a new strategic plan In the mean-time there is: –Growth in overall beef demand (rising incomes) –A true beef industry quickly emerging (growing and fattening operations) –Increase of large companies engaged in production and marketing, with sales network –Growing demand for innovations –Rapidly growing food-service

15. GIRA Meat Club 2003 Chinese Beef Imports have been increasing Regularly Imports this year was negatively impacted by SARS and higher imported prices, hence a small increase overall (+1.8%) Lower tariffs will benefit imports in 2004 (from 45% in 2001 to 12% in 2004) But higher imported prices again might slow imports down (+2.2% overall) USA and Australia are the major China suppliers They have met the strong competition of Brazil in both 2003 and 2004 Higher food safety than wet markets favours the rise in imports However these account for only 1% of consumption (75 000 tonnes including what comes through Hong Kong) But are expected to double by 2010