1. Section 6.1 Confidence Intervals for the Mean (Large Samples) Larson/Farber 4th ed

2. Section 6.1 Objectives Find a point estimate and a margin of error Construct and interpret confidence intervals for the population mean Determine the minimum sample size required when estimating μ Larson/Farber 4th ed

3. Point Estimate for Population μ Point Estimate A single value estimate for a population parameter Most unbiased point estimate of the population mean μ is the sample mean Estimate Population Parameter… with Sample Statistic Mean: μ Larson/Farber 4th ed

4. Example: Point Estimate for Population μ A random sample of annual precipitation from Nome, Alaska. Find a point estimate of the population mean, . 18.31 12.29 14.30 19.25 19.87 20.14 7.39 14.92 19.76 24.38 20.09 13.05 17.10 22.15 9.93 14.17 19.06 24.25 14.97 15.46 14.93 13.67 17.13 16.27 9.08 20.80 10.44 15.23 20.66 17.49 22.06 13.43 17.62

5. Solution: Point Estimate for Population μ The sample mean of the data is Your point estimate for the mean precipitation for Nome, Alaska is 16.66 inches. Larson/Farber 4th ed

6. Interval Estimate Interval estimate An interval, or range of values, used to estimate a population parameter. How confident do we want to be that the interval estimate contains the population mean μ? Larson/Farber 4th ed Point estimate 16.66 ( ) Interval estimate

7. Level of Confidence Level of confidence c The probability that the interval estimate contains the population parameter. z z = 0-z c zczc Critical values ½(1 – c) c is the area under the standard normal curve between the critical values. The remaining area in the tails is 1 – c. c Use the Standard Normal Table to find the corresponding z-scores. Larson/Farber 4th ed

8. −zc−zc Level of Confidence If the level of confidence is 90%, this means that we are 90% confident that the interval contains the population mean μ. z z = 0zczc The corresponding z-scores are +1.645. c = 0.90 ½(1 – c) = 0.05 Larson/Farber 4th ed

9. Sampling Error Sampling error The difference between the point estimate and the actual population parameter value. For μ:  the sampling error is the difference – μ  μ is generally unknown  varies from sample to sample Larson/Farber 4th ed

10. Margin of Error Margin of error The greatest possible distance between the point estimate and the value of the parameter it is estimating for a given level of confidence, c. When n  30, the sample standard deviation, s, can be used for . Denoted by E. Sometimes called the maximum error of estimate or error tolerance.

11. Example: Finding the Margin of Error Use the annual precipitation data and a 95% confidence level to find the margin of error for the mean number inches of precipitation per year. n = 33

12. Solution: Finding the Margin of Error First find the critical values z zczc z = 0 0.95 0.025 -z c = -1.96 95% of the area under the standard normal curve falls within 1.96 standard deviations of the mean. (You can approximate the distribution of the sample means with a normal curve by the Central Limit Theorem, because n ≥ 30.) Larson/Farber 4th ed

13. Solution: Finding the Margin of Error You don’t know σ, but since n ≥ 30, you can use s in place of σ. You are 95% confident that the margin of error for the population mean is about 1.4 inches of precipitation. Larson/Farber 4th ed

14. Confidence Intervals for the Population Mean A c-confidence interval for the population mean μ Larson/Farber 4th ed The probability that the confidence interval contains μ is c.

15. Constructing Confidence Intervals for μ Finding a Confidence Interval for a Population Mean (n  30 or σ known with a normally distributed population) In WordsIn Symbols 1.Find the sample statistics n and. 2.Specify , if known. Otherwise, if n  30, find the sample standard deviation s and use it as an estimate for . Larson/Farber 4th ed

16. Constructing Confidence Intervals for μ 3.Find the critical value z c that corresponds to the given level of confidence. 4.Find the margin of error E. 5.Find the left and right endpoints and form the confidence interval. Use the Standard Normal Table. Left endpoint: Right endpoint: Interval: Larson/Farber 4th ed In WordsIn Symbols

17. Example: Constructing a Confidence Interval Construct a 95% confidence interval for the mean annual precipitation for Nome Alaska. Solution: Recall the mean was 16.66 and E = 1.44 15.2 < μ Left Endpoint: Right Endpoint: < 18.1

18. Example: Constructing a Confidence Interval ( ) 16.6615.2218.10 With 95% confidence, you can say that the mean annual precipitation for Nome, Alaska is between 15.22 and 18.10 inches. Point estimate

19. Interpreting the Results μ is a fixed number. It is either in the confidence interval or not. Incorrect: “There is a 95% probability that the actual mean is in the interval (15.22,18.10).” Correct: “If a large number of samples is collected and a confidence interval is created for each sample, approximately 95% of these intervals will contain μ. Larson/Farber 4th ed

20. Interpreting the Results The horizontal segments represent 90% confidence intervals for different samples of the same size. In the long run, 9 of every 10 such intervals will contain μ. Larson/Farber 4th ed μ

21. Sample Size Given a c-confidence level and a margin of error E, the minimum sample size n needed to estimate the population mean  is If  is unknown, you can estimate it using s provided you have a preliminary sample with at least 30 members.

22. Example: Sample Size You want to estimate the mean annual rain fall for Nome, Alaska. How many years must be included in the sample if you want to be 99% confident that the sample mean is within one standard error of the population mean?

23. −zc−zc Solution: Sample Size First find the critical values z c = 2.575 z z = 0zczc 0.99 0.005

24. Solution: Sample Size z c = 2.575   s = 4.2 E = 1 You should include at least 117 years in your sample.

25. Section 6.1 Summary Found a point estimate and a margin of error Constructed and interpreted confidence intervals for the population mean Determined the minimum sample size required when estimating μ Larson/Farber 4th ed