Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presented by Mei-Hsuan (Michelle) Chao, Suyang (Sean) Hong, Jung Hyun (Jane) Kim, Shen-Ho (Ron) Yang.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "Presented by Mei-Hsuan (Michelle) Chao, Suyang (Sean) Hong, Jung Hyun (Jane) Kim, Shen-Ho (Ron) Yang."— Presentation transcript:

1 Presented by Mei-Hsuan (Michelle) Chao, Suyang (Sean) Hong, Jung Hyun (Jane) Kim, Shen-Ho (Ron) Yang

2 Agenda  Company Overview  Financial Analysis  DCF  Comparison Analysis  Recommendation

3 Company Background  Public utility holding company  Headquartered in St. Louis, MO  Provide electricity and natural gas service to Missouri and Illinois  Created in December 1997 by the merger of CIPSCO Incorporated and Union Electric Company  Listed on NYSE on January 2, 1998  Acquired CILCORP Inc. in 2003 and Illinois Power Company in 2004

4  Missouri regulated:  UE  Illinois regulated:  CIPS  CILCO  IP  Non-rate-regulated generation:  Genco  AERG  EEI Business Segments

5 From 2008 annual report pg 17 Location Map

6 Regulation  The utility rates are determined by government entities such as MoPSC and ICC  Subjected to environment laws and regulations  Need approval by FERC before issuing debt and equity, merging, or acquiring utility

7 Rate Increases  Missouri  MoPSC approved UE to increase electricity revenue by $162 mi on Jan 27 th 09.  Filled in April 08, effective by Mar 09 based on 10.76% ROE.  On July 24 th 09, request rate to increase be $402 mi  Expected to begin in Jun 2010.

8 Rate Increases (cont.)  Illinois  On Sep 08, ICC approved new rate to increase Ameren’s revenue by $161 mi based on 10.7% ROE  On June 09, Ameren filled to increase $226 mi  Revised to $162 mi, decision made by Mar, effective by May

9 Industry Issues  Political and regulatory resistance to higher rate  Uncertain access to capital and credit market  Availability of fuel and price changes  Weather (summer not as hot, winter not as cold)

10 Recent News  Entered into multiyear credit facility agreements that provide substantial borrowing capacity through the middle of 2011  Issued 21.9 million shares of its common stock for net proceeds of $535 million in September 2009  Rate cases pending in Illinois and Missouri jurisdictions

11 Most recent credit rating

12 Strength - Scale Biggest in MO, 2 nd in IL - Better customer service - Diverse customers Weakness - Government Regulation ‘Legislative Lag’ - Volatility in Commodity Prices, Price risk - Electricity mainly from Coal Opportunity - Reduce operating cost - Adding new plants - Expected Rate increases Threats - Ability to get credit - Government Regulation Green house effect - Unexpected Plant Outage - Consolidation in the industry SWOT Analysis

13 Competitors  Centerpoint Energy (CNP)  Electricity capacity of 51,400 mega watts, 3.2 million customers in natural gas  Exelon Corp. (EXC)  Electricity capacity of 24,809 mega watts, 5.4 million customers  Great Plain Energy Inc. (GXP)  Electricity capacity of 6,000 mega watts, 82,000 customers

14 Earnings Summary Performance drivers ↓ Higher fuel and related transportation pries ↓ Increased distribution system reliability expenditures ↓ Higher plant operations and maintenance operations ↓ Unfavorable weather conditions ↑ Higher realized margins from non-rate regulated generation operations ↑ The absence of costs in 2008 that were incurred in January 2007 associated with electric outages caused by severe ice storms ↑ The reduced impact in 2008 of the electric rate relief and customer assistance program provided to certain customers in Illinois ↑ higher electric and natural gas delivery service rates

15 Profitability

16 Financial Leverage

17 Efficiency

18 DuPont Analysis 200320042005200620072008 NI/EBT0.64 0.610.63 0.62 EBT/EBIT0.75 0.770.710.700.69 EBIT/Sales0.240.220.190.180.190.18 Sales/Assets0.350.320.380.360.380.36 Assets/Equity3.223.122.932.923.023.16 Return on Equity12.79%10.44%9.96%8.45%9.25%8.82% Return on Assets3.97%3.35%3.40%2.90%3.06%2.79%

19 DuPont Analysis

20 Stock performance comparison

21 Management Assessment  Focused on delivering safe, reliable, and affordable energy, while achieving solid returns - A commitment to investing in our Illinois and Missouri regulated business - Building Constructive Regulatory Frame-works - Optimizing our existing non-rate-regulated generation assets - Demonstrating Environmental Leadership  Consistent management - Good at predicting economic outlook and its impact on the company

22 Assumptions  Annual revenue growth  Electricity 9%  Gas 12%  COGS growth  Fuel declining from 9.5% and 1% decreasing every year  Gas declining from 15% and 2% decreasing every year  Depreciation  Straight line at 3% of the gross PP&E  Capital expenditure  $1,685 mi in 2009 and $6,600 mi to $8,700 mi over next four y ears

23 DCF Forecasted 200820092010201120122013 Net Income605.00631.79753.09886.691143.131433.05 Depreciation/Amortization685.00802.53852.03901.53951.031000.53 Capital Expenditures(1896.00)(1685.00)(1650.00) Changes in Net Working Capital351.00(17.82)63.6368.65189.86(159.05) FCF(255.00)(268.50)18.75206.87634.02624.53 Terminal Value 14225.44 Present Value of FCFF (250.93)16.38168.86483.6910587.83 Sustainable Growth Rate2.5% WACC7.0% Firm Value Current Value of Operations 11,005.83 Cash & Cash Equivalence 92.00 Debt 6,554.0 Stock Price 21.22 Equals Value +/- 10%23.34 / 19.10

24 Peer Comparison Trailing P/EForward P/EP/SP/BEV/EBITDA Centerpoint Energy 12.6710.440.561.887.54 Exelon10.8712.141.722.435.94 Great Plain Energy 16.0412.341.240.8510.15

25 Peer Comparison AmerenMinimumAverageMaximum Trailing P/E9.3410.8713.1916.04 Forward P/E10.6310.4411.6416.04 P/S multiple0.840.561.171.72 P/B multiple0.770.851.722.43 EV/EBITDA multiple 6.205.947.8810.15

26 Correlation CORRELATION WITH AEE AEO0.022 DO0.177 FR0.569 JKHY0.268 KMB0.391 MCD0.435 SRCL0.133 WAG0.335 WFR0.183

27 Portfolio Chart

28 Current Holding Position  Purchased 400 shares at $50.03 on April 27, 2006  Sold 200 shares at $20.84 on March 16, 2009  Currently hold 200 shares

29 Recommendation  The close price on November 18, 2009 is $25.88  Based on our assumptions, the intrinsic value is $19.1~23.34  We recommend to sell the remaining 200 shares at the market price due to the projected negative FCF and the high percentage of terminal value in the present value

30 Sources  2005 - 2008 Ameren 10K Reports  Yahoo Finance (finance.yahoo.com)  Google Finance (finance.google.com)  Reuters (www.reuters.com)  Ameren website (www.ameren.com)  Bloomberg  One source


Download ppt "Presented by Mei-Hsuan (Michelle) Chao, Suyang (Sean) Hong, Jung Hyun (Jane) Kim, Shen-Ho (Ron) Yang."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google