1. 1 Oxford Economic Forecasting Trade liberalisation and CAP reform The impact of trade liberalisation and CAP reform October 2005 Tel: (44) 1865 268902 Email: acooper@oef.co.uk Adrian Cooper Oxford Economic Forecasting

2. 2 Trade liberalisation and CAP reform Five key findings of the research 1.The potential benefits are significant - around £1,500 a year for household of four. 2.EU could benefit most by reducing its trade barriers bilaterally. This could help it catch up with the US. 3.Core continental economies could gain more than the UK from CAP reform. 4.There are larger gains for developing countries. 5.Poorest tenth in UK gain proportionately much more than top tenth.

3. 3 Oxford Economic Forecasting Trade liberalisation and CAP reform Europe’s under-performance Eurozone productivity falling behind US EU unemployment higher

4. 4 Oxford Economic Forecasting Trade liberalisation and CAP reform EU trade barriers are higher than US

5. 5 Oxford Economic Forecasting Trade liberalisation and CAP reform ‘Core’ continental economies have as much to gain as Britain

6. 6 Oxford Economic Forecasting Trade liberalisation and CAP reform Bilateral trade reform brings biggest gains for the EU and UK

7. 7 Oxford Economic Forecasting Trade liberalisation and CAP reform Liberalising first could help EU catch up with US

8. 8 Oxford Economic Forecasting Trade liberalisation and CAP reform Gains from CAP reform

9. 9 Oxford Economic Forecasting Trade liberalisation and CAP reform Poor countries are hit hardest…

10. 10 Oxford Economic Forecasting Trade liberalisation and CAP reform … and so benefit more

11. 11 Oxford Economic Forecasting Trade liberalisation and CAP reform In the UK the poor benefit most

12. 12 Oxford Economic Forecasting Trade liberalisation and CAP reform Five key findings of the research 1.The potential benefits are significant - around £1,500 a year for household of four. 2.EU could benefit most by reducing its trade barriers bilaterally. This could help it catch up with the US. 3.Core continental economies could gain more than the UK from CAP reform. 4.There are larger gains for developing countries. 5.Poorest tenth in UK gain proportionately much more than top tenth.