1. Migration of the Rural Labor On the Poverty Reduction of China Laiyun Sheng NBS of China October 22, 2007 Beijing

2. Migration and Poverty Motivating questions  The scale of migration: Who are migrating?  Are the poor migrating?  The impact on farmer’s income growth?  The impact on poverty alleviation?  Conclusion

3. Recent trends in migration Household survey by NBS YearTotal migration Million personsShare in Rural labors% 199738.98.5 200076.015.8 2002104.721.6 2003113.923.3 2004 2005 2006 118.2 125.8 132.1 23.8 25 26.

4. Recent trends in migration Househod survey by NBS

5. Who are migrating?

6. The share of different age groups’ migration labor （ % ） 2006 年 2005 年 age100 16-20 years18.922.1 21-25 years27.627.2 26-30 years16.315.9 31-40 years22.421.8 more than 40 years14.713.0

7. Who are migrating? More and more labors have been migrating from rural area to urban area since 1997. Migrants are younger, male, and have better education. They are predominantly junior high school graduates. Labors in Western regions possess less education than the nation.

8. Impact on the growth of farmer’s income

9. The proportion of farmer's wage augment in total net income augment from 2000 to 2006 year the augment of net income(yuan/per) the augment of wage(yuan/per) the proportion( %) 2000 43.172.0167.2 2001 113.069.661.6 2002 109.268.362.5 2003 146.678.253.3 2004 314.280.125.5 2005 318.5176.155.3 2006 332.1200.360.3

10. Impact on the growth of farmer’s income

12. The augment of farmer’s wage from migrating has been mainly promoting the increase of net income. There is a inverted U relationship between income and migration by regression. The lower income group has higher probability of migration.

13. Impact on the poverty reduction The change of rural poverty status of China (millions) yearThe poor/official poverty line Rate of the poor The low- incomer Rate of low- incomer 200032.093.562.136.7 200129.273.261.026.6 200228.203.058.256.2 200329.003.156.176.0 200426.102.849.775.3 200523.52.542.94.7 200621.52.335.84.2

14. Impact on the poverty reduction (1)The poor are less likely to work off the farm than the non- poor; (2)The poor in Western regions have less opportunity for local nonfarm work than the poor in other regions, but have participated in migration more. (Source: RHS, Zhao Yuehui,2005) Are the Poor migrating ? Occupational structure in poor vs. non-poor counties

15. Do rural households with migrant workers have lower poverty? …  Recall that migration is negatively associated with poverty Source: Rural and Urban Household Surveys, NBS. Zhao yuehui,2005 Impact on the poverty reduction

16. Does Migration Reduce Poverty? Short conclusion (1)Migration increases incomes and reduces poverty, so government should encourage and promote migration by making feasible policies. (2) However, migration is not a panacea; many of the poorest households, especially those with limited labor or human capital, are unlikely to migrate. So government should pay attention to the training for all farmers.

17. Migration and Poverty Thank you!