1. State Estimator & Telemetry

2. Imagine a student measuring current on an electrical circuit.59 With on meter, he measures.59 A. Being a cautious type, he measures again with a different meter, and reads 1.0 A. Which is correct? 1.0 Meter 1 Meter 2

3. Imagine a student measuring current on an electrical circuit.59 1.0 On the back of Meter 1 it says the measurement is accurate to +/- 5% On the back of Meter 2 it says the measurement accuracy has a standard deviation of +/- 2% What is the most probable actual current flow?

4. We cannot tell! All we know is that I have a bad meter! Each measurement is over 5 standard deviations from the other; making the probability of both being correct infinitesimal The student assumed that the meaning of +/- 5% means that 99.9 % of measurements taken with that meter would be within 5%; or the STANDARD DEVIATION of the measurements would be 5%/3 = 1.666%

5. But what if you do not know the accuracy of the instruments A state estimator is a minimization program, which minimizes the sum of weighted residuals. In this example, we assumed meter 1 had a measurement accuracy of +/- 1.666% standard deviation. (i.e. 99.9% of measurements would be within 5%), and meter 2 had a measurement accuracy of +/- 2 standard deviations.

6. But what if you do not know the accuracy of the instruments If you have no idea of the expected accuracy of the instruments, then a “reasonable” approach is to average the two measurements. (.56 + 1)/2 = 0.78 A This is obviously not correct from our previous analysis: so a basic requirement is to know the expected accuracy of your measurements.

7. Proposed Telemetry Requirement 1: TSP’s and QSE’s shall notify ERCOT of the expected accuracy of their analog measurements. Preferred format is expected accuracy of PT, CT, A/D converter and transducer in percentage. TSPs & QSE’s will identify how the accuracy was calculated: i.e. –Calculated from manufacturer specifications these devices (high confidence) –MFG specs unavailable: estimated from typical specifications historically installed by our company –A guess from our experience.

8. But what do you do when you identify a problem?

9. Proposed Telemetry Requirement 2 When ERCOT identifies a measurement which is probably in Error, Participants shall recalibrate the device within 2 working days or provide ERCOT with data documenting reasons that the measurement is known to be correct. Each TSP and QSE shall have a telemetry calibration program which can be shown to maintain the probable number of devices outside of their specified accuracy range to < 1% OR alternatively shall be re-calibrated once every 2 years.

10. Imagine our student takes both meters to his Teaching Assistant, and asks him to check them. To his surprise, the instructor returns them 15 minutes later, telling him they both check out. What should he do? Logically he should ask how the meters were calibrated..59 1.0 Meter 1 Meter 2

11. Proposed Telemetry Requirement 3 If a TSP or QSE examines a measurement at the request of ERCOT, and no error is detected, the TSP or QSE shall provide ERCOT with details of how the calibration took place.

12. State Estimator Below is a single-line diagram with scada measurements. All measurements have equal weights (std=3%, w=1/(sd)^2=0.1111) in the uncertainty model. Measurements shown are red are erroneous, they are 25Mw (~28Mw) and 20 MW ( ~23MW) in reality. 40Mw 28Mw 15Mw 17Mw 20Mw ~

13. State Estimator SE solution 1 (SE values in black font and scada values in blue font) Objective function is to minimize sum of weighted squares of residuals (PI) KCL is loosened Equal Weights on all measurements ( 0.1111) 40Mw 28Mw 15Mw 17Mw 20Mw ~ PI = Σ weight(i) *residual(i) 2 =0 Bus mismatches of 3 Mw at every bus 8Mw (15) (40) (28) (17) (20)

14. State Estimator SE solution 2 (SE values in black font and scada values in blue font) Objective function is to minimize sum of weighted squares of residuals (PI) KCL is tightened to 0 Equal Weights on all measurements ( 0.1111) 38.5Mw 25.75Mw 12.75Mw 17.75Mw 20.75Mw ~ PI = 0.1111*23 = 2.56 Bus mismatches of 0 Mw at every bus Note that error on 3 measurements is spread across all estimates 8Mw (15) (40) (28) (17) (20)

15. State Estimator SE solution 2 (SE values in black font and scada values in blue font) Objective function is to minimize sum of weighted squares of residuals (PI) 2 bad measurements have low weights ( std= 5%, w=0.04), all other measurements have normal weights (std=3%, w=0.111). KCL is normal (i.e. relaxed) 40Mw 25Mw 15Mw 17Mw 23Mw ~ PI = 0.1111*0+ 0.04* 27 = 1.08 Bus mismatches of 0 Mw at every bus 8Mw (15) (40) (28) (17) (20)

16. State Estimator Weighting Calculation Stdv =(PTE+CTE+ADCE+TRE)*Base/(Probable Max stdv based on gaussian distribution=5) Example: If PT error = 1% (.01); CT error = 1% (.01); transducer = 1% (.01) and AD converter accuracy = 1% (.01) on a 271 MVA line than the expected standard deviation of the measurement mapped to that line is: (.01+.01+.01+.01)*271/5 = 2.61 and the weighting is 1/SD 2 = 0.14679 Now the Performance index = the sum of these weighting factors * residual or: PI = Σ Weight Factor(i) * Residual(i) 2 So what information do we need for each measurement? 1.Accuracy of PT (maximum error) 2.Accuracy of CT 3.Accuracy of A/D converter 4.Accuracy of transducer

17. State Estimator

18. Default Weight Calculation For a 1000Mva line belonging to MEAS class has Stdv = (.01+.01+.01+.01)*1000/5=8, w=1/64 For a load with parent fraction 10 has Stdv = (.01+.01+.01+.01)*10/5=.08, w=1/.0064

19. BREAK