1. Earth’s Changing Environment Lecture 1 The Next Mass Extinction?

2. Global Warming Scenarios Global Warming Scenarios The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) predicts that the global average temperature of the Earth will increase during the next 100 years. They use computer models to make predictions based on different scenarios of economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions.

3. IPCC Projections Global Temperature Change

4. IPCC Projection with History

5. Projections for 2050 Models indicate that between now and 2050 there will be an increase in global mean temperature with a minimum equal to 0.8 o C (1.4 F) and maximum greater than 2 o C (3.6F). These temperature changes could have profound impacts

6. Extinction of Species

7. Recent Letter in “Nature” Extinction risk from climate change Nature 427, 145 - 148 (08 January 2004); doi:10.1038/nature02121 On the web at www.nature.com

8. Results of the Study “ When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (18%) than mid- range (24%) and maximum-change (35%) scenarios.”

9. Comment “These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.”

10. Between 1/5 and 1/3 of all species will become extinct in your lifetime!

11. BBC News Friday, 9 January, 2004, 01:14 GMT http://news.bbc.co.uk BBC News Friday, 9 January, 2004, 01:14 GMT http://news.bbc.co.uk “Climate change is the most severe problem we are facing today.” - Sir David King, UK government’s chief science adviser

12. Most of us ignored this report. Most people ignore environmental problems, do not understand them, remain inactive, hope everything works out well, or don’t connect the science with reality (disconnect problem).

13. Are There Better Responses? Since environmental issues affect us, our friends, our families, and the world around us, we need take a responsible and defensible position.

14. Skeptical A skeptic does not accept the science and advocates business as usual.

15. Optimistic An optimist accepts the science, but advocates business as usual.

16. Activist An activist accepts the science, and advocates change.

17. How would you classify yourself on this or other environmental issues? Skeptic Optimist Activist

18. Goal of this Course The goal of this class is to help you become a better informed and more thoughtful skeptic, optimist, or activist.

19. Another Goal My personal hope is that this course will help you become a thoughtful activist.