1. 12.40 6.40 6.80 5.80 0.80 1.20 7.80 8.80 9.00 0.20 12.40 7.90 7.50 Guides for gutter Text colours R 27 G 66 B 152 R 0 G 0 B 0 R 127 G 127 B 127 Background shading R 242 G 242 B 242 R 225 G 235 B 244 R 227 G 244 B 236 8.40 Colour order (left to right, top to bottom) R 59 G 110 B 143 R 251 G 193 B 119 R 115 G 198 B 161 R 103 G 153 B 200 R 186 G 163 B 171 R 191 G 191 B 191 R 127 G 127 B 127 R 201 G 48 B 146 R 27 G 66 B 152 R 84 G 7 B 91 R 248 G 152 B 29 R 241 G 237 B 238 R 254 G 234 B 210 R 211 G 227 B 237 NZ Economic Update Rabobank Food & Agribusiness Research NZ Cold Storage Assoc. Conference 18 th August 2014

2. 2 NZ Cold Storage Assoc. Conference August 2014 Quiz question One more to start the day... Who was the ancient Greek God / Goddess of agriculture?

3. 3 NZ Cold Storage Assoc. Conference August 2014 Status of the Global Economic Recovery Source: IMF & Rabobank, 2014 Growth in global importsGlobal GDP growth by country/region Source: WTO & Rabobank 2014

4. 4 NZ Cold Storage Assoc. Conference August 2014 Lingering doubts... The Income vs. Wealth effects Source: U.S. Federal Reserve & Rabobank, 2014 U.S. Federal Reserve Quantitative easing... is easing!

5. 5 NZ Cold Storage Assoc. Conference August 2014 Steady recovery in NZ Economic Activity Source: Statistics NZ & Rabobank, 2014 Private vs. Public Sector Contributions, Q1GDP growth Source: Statistics NZ & Rabobank, 2014

6. 6 NZ Cold Storage Assoc. Conference August 2014 But the government has played a critical role... Source: Roy Morgan & Rabobank, 2014 NZ Government Confidence Rating

7. 7 NZ Cold Storage Assoc. Conference August 2014 Kiwis are migrating home, plus a bunch of others! Source: Statistics NZ & Rabobank, 2014 Net permanent migration to NZ

8. 8 NZ Cold Storage Assoc. Conference August 2014 Industry contributions to the recovery Source: Statistics NZ & Rabobank, 2014 Bank lending to select sectorsIndustry breakdown of GDP by select sector Source: RBNZ & Rabobank, 2014

9. 9 NZ Cold Storage Assoc. Conference August 2014 Robust recovery in the jobs market Source: Statistics NZ & Rabobank, 2014 Employment growth by typeNZ unemployment & labour force participation Source: Statistics NZ & Rabobank, 2014

10. 10 NZ Cold Storage Assoc. Conference August 2014 So what’s got the RBNZ going?... Wages & Inflation Source: Statistics NZ & Rabobank, 2014 ‘Tradeables’ vs. ‘Non-tradeables’ CPIWage & Consumer price growth Source: Statistics NZ & Rabobank, 2014

11. 11 NZ Cold Storage Assoc. Conference August 2014 Household are feeling good... but are still a bit careful Source: Statistics NZ & Rabobank, 2014 NZ & AUS Consumer SentimentNZ Retail Trade Source: Westpac, & Rabobank, 2014

12. 12 NZ Cold Storage Assoc. Conference August 2014 Foreign trade Source: ANZ & Rabobank, 2014 Commodity pricesNZ Commodity Price Index Source: Statistics NZ & Rabobank, 2014

13. 13 NZ Cold Storage Assoc. Conference August 2014 Geopolitics... A fly in the ointment or... opportunity knocking? Source: UN Comtrade & Rabobank, 2014 NZ Exports to Russia, 2013Russia – Top 20 imported products by value, 2013 Source: Statistics NZ & Rabobank 2014

14. 14 NZ Cold Storage Assoc. Conference August 2014 An apple a day keeps Putin away Source: UN Comtrade & Rabobank, 2014 Not good news if you’re a doctor in Poland!Russia apple imports by country by value, 2013 Source: Deutsche Welle http://www.dw.de/poland-eats-apples-to-get-back-at-putin-russia/a-17824945http://www.dw.de/poland-eats-apples-to-get-back-at-putin-russia/a-17824945

15. 15 NZ Cold Storage Assoc. Conference August 2014 Can Kiwis fly? We sure hope not! Source: RBA, RBNZ & Rabobank, Financial Markets Research 2014 NZD & AUD historical currency movements – Last 12 months 31-Jul-2014+3m+6m+12m NZD/USD 0.850.86 0.85 AUD/USD 0.930.920.900.86 EUR/USD 1.341.35 1.30 GBP/USD 1.691.701.721.69 Rabobank currency forecasts

16. 16 NZ Cold Storage Assoc. Conference August 2014 In Summary! Key takeaways The NZ economy has affected a robust, private sector led recovery. Responsible political leadership has created the necessary conditions for this to happen. Population growth provides added momentum, with more & more people finding a reason to move to (and back to!) NZ. Risks to the global recovery remain, including near-term geopolitical disruptions to F&A trade. Interest rates are set to stabilise for the time being as the RBNZ assesses recent hikes and observes global markets.

17. 17 NZ Cold Storage Assoc. Conference August 2014 Quiz Who was the ancient Greek god / goddess of agriculture Demeter

18. 18 NZ Cold Storage Assoc. Conference August 2014 Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory (FAR) Marc Soccio Senior Analyst Melbourne, Australia +61 (3) 9940 8437 Marc.Soccio@rabobank.com Meet the FAR Oceania research team… Luke Chandler, General Manager Hayley Moynihan, Senior Analyst (Dairy) Michael Harvey, Senior Analyst (Dairy) Georgia Twomey, Commodities Analyst Graydon Chong, Senior Analyst (Grains & Oilseeds) Angus Gidley-Baird, Senior Analyst (Animal Proteins) Matt Costello, Analyst (Animal Proteins) A global team of 80 analysts dedicated to delivering insights into the world’s major F&A regions

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