1. RISK BASED DECISIONS – THE ROLE OF SCIENTIFIC EXPERTISE AND JUDGEMENT PAUL DAVIES HSE’s Chief Scientist & Director Of the Hazardous Installations Directorate

2. HEALTH AND SAFETY EXECUTIVE The regulator for health and safety at the workplace, including risk to the public Wide remit Strong scientific base Highly integrated Annual spend of 15% of total budget on commissioned S&T (£37m)

3. H&S REGULATORY FRAMEWORK Goal setting prescriptive Risk to be As Low as Reasonably Practicable – ALARP ALARP test Friendly to innovation Continuous improvement Risk Regulatory Framework

4. HSE CRITERIA FOR THE TOLERABILITY OF RISK Unacceptable region Tolerable region Broadly Acceptable region Negligible risk Increasing risks and societal concerns

5. CHARACTERISTICS OF RISK High X Tripping accident Low Probability Increasing “Societal concern” High X offshore installation explosion

6. REGULATING H&S RISKS Routine/low hazard Rare/high hazard Risk Spectrum Permissive Approach Permissioned Approach Eg Safety Cases Generic Risk assessment Case Specific Risk Assessment Compliance + Good Practice/Standards Compliance + ALARP Demonstration What more could be done? Why is it not being done? Qualitative + QRA/ASA/SRA Science & Engineering Judgement

7. KNOWLEDGE BASED CONTRIBUTIONS ASA – Advanced Structural Analysis Representation of behaviour Ability to account for deterioration SRA – Structural Reliability Analysis Examination of uncertainties and sensitivities Ability to explore failure surface

8. COMPETENCE BASED REQUIREMENTS Education Training Periodical updates to reflect changing knowledge

9. INTEGRATING ASA AND SRA Accurate integrated analysis Realistic structural response Used for reliability based optimum design Leads to efficiency, effectiveness and safety Reduced weight, cost and time of construction