1. Analytical Framework of Commercial Diplomacy (prepared for CDS. 05, Jaipur 16-19 July, 2008) Ahmed F. Ghoneim Cairo University Email address: aghoneim@gmx.deaghoneim@gmx.de

2. The Origins of Commercial Diplomacy l It is a relatively new discipline that gained a lot of importance due to two main reasons: - The increasing importance of trade negotiations on the multilateral, regional, and bilateral levels. - The increasing complexity of trade issues' negotiations.

3. What a commercial diplomat should take into consideration? l Identifying the main issue (problem or target and solution or means) l Analysis of different related dimensions, or undertaking a simple but insightful cost-benefit analysis (from a trade, economic, policy, legal, institutional, and public opinion perspectives) l Developing a research agenda l Setting a negotiations plan

4. Identifying the main issue - What is the main problem to be solved or the main target to be achieved? - How much is trade aspect being involved in such problem or target? - Is trade the main concern or is trade a mean to reach the goal or solve the problem? - In some cases trade is the main concern and means are political or diplomatic whereas in other cases politics, social considerations, or other aspect is the main concern and trade is the mean to achieve it.

5. Analysis of the different related dimensions (simple but insightful cost-benefit analysis) l Trade Perspective Is the problem/solution likely to affect variables as - Government revenues (including tariffs) - Market access abroad - Affecting domestic existing industries - Affecting consumers - Indirect effects (other industries) - Time horizon (short versus long term)

6. l Economic Perspective What are the implications of the action on the economy? - Employment - Prices - Productivity - Income - Production

7. l Policy Perspective Is the problem/solution likely to affect - Domestic policies (in which areas) - Inclusion of new measures (laws, policies, agreements) - Are there other trade or non-trade related means that could have been adopted?

8. l Politics Perspective - Which departments or ministries are involved? - Who are the expected gainers and losers from any policy change? - What is the political weight of gainers and losers? - What are the social and political implications of the problem/solution? - Means and alternatives to shield or promote lobbies

9. l Legal Perspective - Does the problem/solution has legal implications? - Is the problem/solution affecting a domestic or international legal obligations? - Consistency between domestic legal actions and international obligations.

10. l Institutional Perspective - How can the problem be solved and on which level (a ministerial decree, a change of law, a new policy, higher levels of political interventions) - What bottlenecks need to be addressed - Are there alternative means

11. l Public Opinion Perspective - Is public opinion concerned about the issue? - To what extent is the problem of concern to public opinion? - What are the means to influence public opinion (press, media, parliament)

12. Developing a Research Agenda l Sources of your information and data (domestic and international) l Professional skills available at your possession l Experts you need to consult l Extent and depth of analysis

13. Setting a Negotiations Plan l Which is in fact based on all the former steps, but blended now with a great deal of politics and diplomacy. In other words all the analysis undertaken should be transformed into alternate policies, legal arguments, and negotiations strategies.

14. The Negotiations Plan should address l Balancing trade interests at home and abroad l Addressing the policy issues at home and abroad l Building political coalitions at home and abroad l Solving institutional problems at home and abroad l Seeking public support at home and abroad

15. What skills are needed for a commercial diplomat? - A commercial diplomat can be of an economic/legal/accountancy/others background. - Her main field is mainly trade-related. - She cannot be an expert in everything but she must be aware of the different aspects mentioned above.

16. During Negotiations, take care of the following: l Have well command of information l Pay attention to cultural issues (it affects the mood and pace of negotiations) l Be credible l Start by points of agreement and then move to difficult issues l Depend on experts in each field you are negotiating (make sure you consult more than one with different background)

17. Remember the following Never Forget your main problem/concern as it is always lost in the details of negotiations

18. Thank you