1. Reaching the marginalized Kevin Watkins High-Level Group, Addis Ababa 24 February 2010 EFA Global Monitoring Report 2 0 1 0

2. Education for All Global Monitoring Report 2010 Five themes for High-Level Group discussion  Financial crisis – ‘delayed threats’ to progress  Reviewing the EFA progress report – and looking ahead to 2015  Revisiting marginalization – measurement, drivers and responses  The EFA aid compact – the case for renewal  Looking ahead – policy lessons, strategy and reconsidering the future of the High-Level Group

3. Education for All Global Monitoring Report 2010 Ambition, innovation and commitment to EFA

4. Education for All Global Monitoring Report 2010 Education at risk: the impact of the financial crisis  ‘Aftermath effects’ - slower economic growth, mounting fiscal pressures and rising poverty levels will hamper progress potential loss of US$4.6 bn/year for sub-Saharan Africa in 2009/10 per student loss of 10% at primary level  Increased aid vital for creating fiscal space – globalizing the American Recovery and Re-investment Act  International recovery efforts are failing the poorest countries front-loading and repackaging rather than new financing over-reliance on IMF and under-reliance on IDA  Urgent need for ‘real time’ budget monitoring and review of financing effects

5. Education for All Global Monitoring Report 2010 Monitoring progress on the EFA goals 1.Education disadvantage starts in the womb - Free maternal and child health care are an education imperative. 2.UPE - Progress is uneven and pace has slowed – out-of- school numbers falling too slowly for 2015 goal. Some higher income countries are off track (Turkey/Philippines). 3.Need to strengthen links between TVET provision and employment, second chance options, and informal sector. 4.About 759 million adults lack literacy skills today. 5.Gender gaps are narrowing, but there is a parity gap of 6 million 6.Quality concerns - achievement disparities outweigh enrolment inequalities.

6. Education for All Global Monitoring Report 2010 2008200920102011201220132014 2015 56 million 8 million 23 million Rest of the World South and West Asia 39 million Sub-Saharan Africa 45 million 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Out-of-school children (millions) East Asia and the Pacific 2000200120022003200420052006 2007 32 18 9 6 3 72 million 1999 6 8 4 105 million Out-of-school children Arab States Latin America and the Caribbean Out-of-school numbers – declining too slowly East Asia and the Pacific Arab States Latin America and the Caribbean  Current projections - 56 million children out of school in 2015, and real numbers could be much higher

7. Education for All Global Monitoring Report 2010 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Korea, Rep. of Singapore Sweden Tunisia Egypt El Salvador Saudi Arabia Ghana TIMSS mathematics scale score Above the TIMSS high international benchmark Below the TIMSS low international benchmark Median 90 th percentile  Global inequalities in access are reinforced by learning inequalities  Median achievement in many developing countries is below international ‘low performance’ absolute learning benchmarks  Absolute levels of achievement are also low in many poor countries The quality challenge

8. Education for All Global Monitoring Report 2010 Reaching the marginalized

9. Education for All Global Monitoring Report 2010 Marginalization in education What is it?  “Clearly remediable injustices around us which we want to eliminate” The idea of justice, Amartya Sen  The Report focuses on: 1.Measuring marginalization – new national data (DME data set) 2.Drivers of marginalization – causes such as poverty, gender, language, location, disability which intersect – and are reinforced by social attitudes 3.Remedies – Integrated policies for reaching and teaching the marginalized

10. Education for All Global Monitoring Report 2010 The wealth effect: People from the poorest households who are in education poverty 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Philippines Turkey Vietnam Egypt Kenya Congo India Nigeria Yemen Nepal Pakistan Morocco Senegal Chad Burkina Faso Share of the population with less than 4 and less than 2 years of education Extreme education poverty People with less than 2 years of education Education poverty People with less than 4 years of education The gender effect: Girls from the poorest households who are in education poverty In Yemen, the poorest 20% of households have an education poverty incidence double the national average And, for girls from the poorest 20% of households, the proportion triples. The education poverty threshold

11. Education for All Global Monitoring Report 2010 Richest 20% Poorest 20% Poor, rural Hausa girls Rich, rural girls Poor, urban boys Poor, rural girls Nigeria Rural Hausa Rich, urban boys Urban Rural Urban Rural Rich, rural boys Somalia Chad Bangladesh Cameroon Honduras Indonesia Bolivia Cuba Ukraine 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Average number of years of schooling Education poverty Extreme education poverty 3.3 years 6.4 years 3.5 years 9.7 years 0.5 years 10.3 years 2.6 years 0.3 years Boys Girls 6.7 years 10 years Education marginalization – inequalities within countries Nigeria

12. Education for All Global Monitoring Report 2010 Getting left behind – drivers of marginalization What are the causes?  Educational marginalization is driven by interacting layers of disadvantage Five key interactions 1.Poverty, vulnerability and child labour 2.Group-based disadvantages (ethnic and linguistic minorities, indigenous people, caste) 3.Location and livelihoods (pastoralists, slum dwellers, conflict areas) 4.Disability 5.HIV and AIDs

13. Education for All Global Monitoring Report 2010 Leveling the playing field The learning environment Accessibility and affordability Entitlements and opportunities The inclusive education triangle

14. Education for All Global Monitoring Report 2010 The aid compact: falling short of commitments

15. Education for All Global Monitoring Report 2010 Aid to basic education – a worrying picture?  Disbursements are rising, but basic education commitments fell by 22% in 2007, to US$4.3 billion  Mounting pressure on bilateral aid budgets and Gleneagles commitments  Mixed record on aid effectiveness and Paris Agenda  Conflict-affected countries getting bypassed  Fast Track reform critical for renewal of multilateral architecture - Strengthen developing country participation through more inclusive governance - Greater flexibility in country-level delivery mechanisms

16. Education for All Global Monitoring Report 2010 The Education for All financing gap  The EFA financing gap = 2% of bank rescue effort in the US and UK Additional aid to basic education if Gleneagles commitments are met In 2010 Current aid to basic education Aid shortfall $ 11 billion Estimated current resources $ 12 billion Additional resources from prioritization EFA financing gap $ 16 billion 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 $ 3 billion $ 4 billion Average annual resources needed to finance EFA (2009-2015) US$ 36 billion Additional resources from growth $ 3 billion $ 2 billion

17. Education for All Global Monitoring Report 2010 Rising to the EFA challenge

18. Education for All Global Monitoring Report 2010  Put marginalization at the heart of the EFA agenda - equity-based targets and monitoring  Develop integrated strategies that go beyond the school (e.g. education-health-social protection)  Strengthen the focus on quality and teacher support  Increase resource mobilization for education and strengthen equity in public spending  Turn political spotlight on ‘forgotten goals’ – literacy and early childhood Looking ahead – national governments

19. Education for All Global Monitoring Report 2010 The international partnership  Close the financing gap – bilateral aid, new donors, innovative finance  Respond to fiscal pressures – front-load concessional support through IDA (and FTI?)  Focus on conflict affected countries  Address the credibility of the HLG Remember the remit – ‘small and flexible’; ‘a lever for political commitment…and resource mobilisation’; ‘hold the global community to account’. Seizing the political moment - focus on well-defined strategic goals for MDG summit, G8 and G20 Strengthening the message through joined-up communications

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