1. THORPEX David Burridge WMO THORPEX International Programme Office

2. THORPEX Priorities
Global-to-regional influences on the evolution and predictability of weather systems
Global observing-system design and demonstration
Targeting and assimilation of observations
Societal, economic, and environmental benefits of improved forecasts

3. Data Targeting
Value of extra-tropical targeted data has been found to be positive, but small, on average
Observations taken in sensitive areas have more value than observations deployed randomly
There are limitations due to the current assimilation methodologies (not yet fully flow-dependent)
Sensitive area characterization does not appear to be the first order problem
Additional observations for tropical cyclones have proven to be useful (further T-PARC analysis important)

4. The THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE)
A key component of THORPEX: a World Weather Research Programme to accelerate the improvements in the accuracy of 1-day to 2-week high-impact weather forecasts for the benefit of humanity. The TIGGE project has developed a database of global ensemble forecasts collected in near real-time.
Objectives:
Enhance collaboration on ensemble prediction, both internationally and between operational centres & universities.
Facilitate research on ensemble prediction methods, especially methods to combine ensembles and to correct systematic errors
Enable evolution towards a prototype operational system, the “Global Interactive Forecast System”

5. TIGGE data flows (6 to 30h after real time)
300 GB per day
TIGGE – David Parsons (session II)

6. Flood prediction with ensembles
La Stampa, 29 April La Regione Piemonte «Stato di emergenza dopo la piena». In tutto il Piemonte ci sono stati allagamenti e smottamenti di strade. Situazione difficile oltre che ad Alessandria anche nel Cuneese, nell'Astigiano e in Val d'Ossola. La presidente Mercedes Bresso ha chiesto lo stato di emergenza. Allerta per il Po’ invece dalla Protezione civile dell'Emilia-Romagna, dove la piena e' attesa per oggi. La piena in Piemonte, dovrebbe avere una portata stimata sui metri cubi al secondo.
Alessandria, 29 April The Tanaro river reaches extremely high levels (photo A Contaldo, Photonews, available from
La Repubblica, 30 April 2009: Crolla un'arcata, precipitano 4 macchine. Grave un automobilista ricoverato in rianimazione. Piena del Po’, crolla ponte a Piacenza Le auto finiscono in acqua: 4 feriti Piena del Po#, crolla ponte a Piacenza. Un'arcata ha ceduto alla furia della piena del fiume e l'asflato si è piegato verso l'acqua trascinando quattro auto. La strada si è piegata in una sorta di "v".
Piacenza, 30 April The collapse of one of the bridges across the Po’ river (photo P Caridi, WordPress, available from

7. Number of ensemble members based on the ECMWF EPS forecast from the 24th of April 00 UTC simulating discharges which exceed the EFAS high alert level for the Po river basin. The circles denote the locations of reporting points.

8. Towards the Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS)
The objective of the GIFS is to realise the benefits of THORPEX research by improving the delivery of improved forecasts of high-impact weather.
As a first step, the GIFS-TIGGE working group set up a pilot project for the exchange of real-time tropical cyclone predictions using “Cyclone XML” format.
Forecast and research demonstartion projects are being developed by the GIFS-TIGGE WG and regional centres to predict tropical cyclone tracks and heavy rainfall

9. The IPY-THORPEX CLUSTER OBJECTIVES
Assess and seek to improve the quality of operational analyses and research reanalysis products in the Polar Regions
Address improving data assimilation techniques for Polar Regions
Assess the skill in the prediction of polar to global high impact weather events for different observing strategies in higher latitudes
Demonstrate the utility of improved utilization of ensemble weather forecast products for high impact weather events and for IPY operations, when applicable
Develop recommendations for the design of the Global Observing System in polar regions for weather prediction
Conduct field campaigns during the IPY intensive observing period to assist achievement of the goals
Address two-way interactions between polar and sub-polar weather regimes

10. YoTC ERRORS Forecast Simulate Assimilate Compare With Observations
Improve
Model, ICs,
Methods
ERRORS
YoTC
2008
2009
2010
Diurnal cycle, synoptic systems, weather-climate intersecton research, meso-to-planetary-scale organization tropical-extratropical interaction
YOTC - Duane Waliser (Session I)

11. North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment
T-NAWDEX
THORPEX-
North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment
address the triggering of waveguide disturbances by different processes and the disturbances’ subsequent downstream evolution
study of the downstream impacts of the waveguide disturbances over Europe, the Mediterranean, and northern Africa
To be performed in 2011/2012
in conjunction with HYMEX 11 11

12. HYMEX: Main Scientific Topics
Better understanding of the intense events: processes and contribution to the trend
Jean-Pierre Chalon – session V 12
EPS - RAVI (D Burridge)
CBSXIV March 2009 12

13. T-NAWDEX aircraft observations
Use HALO-Demonstration Mission HALO-THORPEX for field phase
Test – November UK FAAM BAE Large Atmospheric Research Aircraft G-LUXE 13

14. Highlights - summary
Three major real-time international observational programmes have been completed (for the Atlantic and Pacific) A-TREC, E-TREC and T-PARC (Tetsuo Nakazawa & Zoltan Toth – session II)
Plans for T-NAWDEX and HyMeX are maturing
Reports on the effectiveness of data-targeting have been completed
International data bases (TIGGE) of near-real time global ensemble predictions from ten prediction centres have been established and the results are being provided for wide-ranging research by three archive centres
The THORPEX IPY Cluster of projects have made a major contribution to observing and NWP for polar regions

15. Highlights – summary 2 A major contribution has been made to AMMA
The YOTC project has been established
The THORPEX community has made a contribution to the WWRP Strategic plan
Regional Plans have been developed
Three Science Symposia have been held - (2004 in Montreal (Canada), 2006 in Landshut (Germany) and 2009 in Monterey (USA))
In addition, the THORPEX community and partners are leading four GEO tasks (for health, climate, ensemble-prediction and high impact weather in Africa) and these projects are now the main elements of the GEO weather prediction activity.

16. Future emphasis
Basic issues of predictability and key dynamical processes
The required initial conditions and implied observational coverage
Strategies for observations targeting in critical situations
Tackling the problem issues in data assimilation especially at high resolution
Handling of the tropics particularly organised convection, tropical cyclones and extra-tropical transition and interactions
Polar weather
Seamless prediction of weather and climate from days to weeks and seasons (see CASXV Agenda item 7)