1. Lesson 20-Risk Management

2. Background  Risk management can be described as a decision-making process.  Effective risk management avoids costly oversights and unexpected problems.  Industry best practices state that effective risk management involves treating it as an ongoing process.

3. Objectives Upon completion of this lesson, the learner will be able to:  Explain the purpose of risk management and describe an approach to effectively manage risk.  Describe differences between qualitative and quantitative risk assessment.  Explain, by example, how both approaches, qualitative and quantitative risk assessment, are necessary to effectively manage risk.  Define important terms associated with risk management.  Describe various tools related to risk management.

4. Risk Management: An Overview  Risk management is an essential element of management.  It encompasses all the actions to: – Reduce complexity. – Increase objectivity. – Identify important decision factors.

5. Risk Management: An Overview  Businesses need to take risks to retain their competitive edge.  As a result, risk management must be done as part of managing any project.  To succeed, one needs to manage risks better.

6. Risk Management: An Overview  Risk management is both a skill and a task.  Depending on the size of the project and the amount of risk involved, risk management can be simple or complex.

7. Macro-Level Example of Risk Management: International Banking  The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision is composed of government central-bank governors from around the world.  This body created a basic, global risk management framework for market and credit risk.

8. Macro-Level Example of Risk Management: International Banking  The Basel Committee implemented capital charge to banks at flat 8 percent internationally to manage bank risks.  This means for every $100 a bank makes in loans, it must have $8 in reserve to be used in the event of financial difficulties.  However, if banks can show they have very strong risk mitigation procedures and controls in place, that capital charge can be reduced to as low as $0.37 (0.37 percent).  If a bank has poor procedures and controls, then capital charge can be as high as $45 (45 percent).

9. Understanding Risk Management Key terms: – Risk - the possibility of suffering a loss. – Risk management - the decision-making process of identifying threats and vulnerabilities and their potential impacts. – Risk assessment (or risk analysis) - the process of analyzing an environment to identify the threats, vulnerabilities, and mitigating actions to determine the impact of an event on a project, program, or business.

10. Understanding Risk Management Key terms (continued): – Asset - a resource or information required by an organization to conduct its business. – Threat - any circumstance or event that may cause harm to an asset. – Vulnerability - the characteristic of an asset that can be exploited by a threat to cause harm. – Impact - the loss when a threat exploits a vulnerability.

11. Understanding Risk Management Key terms (continued): – Control (countermeasure or safeguard) - a measure to detect, prevent, or mitigate the risk associated with a threat. – Qualitative risk assessment - the process of subjectively determining the impact of an event that affects a project, program, or business. – Quantitative risk assessment - the process of objectively determining the impact of an event that affects a project, program, or business.

12. Understanding Risk Management Key terms (continued): – Mitigate - action taken to reduce the likelihood of a threat occurring. – Single loss expectancy (SLE) - the monetary loss or impact of each occurrence of a threat. – Exposure factor - a measure of the magnitude of loss of an asset. It is used in the calculation of single loss expectancy. – Annualized rate of occurrence (ARO) - the frequency with which an event is expected to occur on an annualized basis. – Annualized loss expectancy (ALE) - the estimate of how much an event is expected to cost per year.

13. Risk Management  The dictionary defines risk as the possibility of loss.  Carnegie Mellon University’s Software Engineering Institute (SEI) defines continuous risk management as: processes, methods, and tools for managing risks in a project. – It provides a disciplined environment for proactive decision-making to: Assess what could go wrong (risks). Determine which risks are important. Implement strategies to deal with those risks.

14. Risk Management  The Information Systems Audit and Control Association (ISACA) states, “In modern business terms, risk management is the process of identifying vulnerabilities and threats to an organization’s resources and assets and deciding what countermeasures, if any, should be taken to reduce the level of risk to an acceptable level based on the value of the asset to the organization.”

15. Risk Management A planning decision flowchart for risk management

16. Business Risks In today’s technology-dependent business environment, risk is often divided into two areas: – Business risk – Technology risk

17. Examples of Business Risks The most common business risks include: – Treasury management – Revenue management – Contract management – Fraud – Environmental risk management – Regulatory risk management – Business continuity management – Technology

18. Examples of Technology Risks The most common technology risks include: – Security and privacy. – Information technology operations. – Business systems control and effectiveness. – Business continuity management. – Information systems testing. – Reliability and performance management. – Information technology asset management. – Project risk management. – Change management.

19. Risk Management Models  There are several risk management models for managing risk through its various phases.  The chosen models should align with the business objectives and strategies.  The two risk management models are: general risk management model and the Software Engineering Institute model.

20. General Risk Management Model  General risk management model includes the following steps: – Asset identification. – Threat assessment. – Impact definition and quantification. – Control design and evaluation. – Residual risk management.

21. Asset Identification  In this step, the assets, systems, and processes that need protection need to be identified and classified, as they are vulnerable to threats.  This classification helps to prioritize assets, systems, and processes and to evaluate the costs of addressing the associated risks.

22. Asset Identification  Assets include: – Inventory and buildings. – Cash. – Information and data. – Hardware and software. – Services, documents, and personnel. – Brand recognition and organization reputation. – Goodwill.

23. Threat Assessment  Threats can be defined as any circumstance or event with the potential to harm an asset.  In this step, the possible threats and vulnerabilities associated with each asset and the likelihood of their occurrence is identified.

24. Threat Assessment  Common classes of threat include: – Natural disasters. – Man-made disasters. – Terrorism. – Errors. – Malicious damage or attacks. – Fraud. – Theft. – Equipment or software failure.

25. Threat Assessment  Vulnerabilities are characteristics of resources that can be exploited by a threat to cause harm.  Examples of vulnerabilities include: – Unprotected facilities. – Unprotected computer systems. – Unprotected data. – Insufficient procedures and controls. – Insufficient or unqualified personnel.

26. Impact Definition and Quantification  When a threat is realized, it turns risk into impact.  An impact is the loss created when a threat exploits a vulnerability.  Impacts can be either tangible or intangible.

27. Impact Definition and Quantification  Tangible impacts include: – Direct loss of money. – Endangerment of staff or customers. – Loss of business opportunity. – Reduction in operational efficiency or performance. – Interruption of a business activity.

28. Impact Definition and Quantification  Intangible impacts include: – Breach of legislation or regulatory requirements. – Loss of reputation or goodwill (brand damage). – Breach of confidence.

29. Control Design and Evaluation  Controls are designed to control risk by reducing vulnerabilities to an acceptable level.  Controls can be actions, devices, or procedures.  They can be: – Preventive controls - prevent the vulnerability from being exploited by a threat, thus causing an impact. – Detective controls - detect a vulnerability that has been exploited by a threat so that action can be taken.

30. Residual Risk Management  Any risks that remain after implementing controls are termed residual risks.  Residual risks can be further evaluated to identify where additional controls are required to further reduce risk.  Business process reengineering or organizational changes can create new risks or weaken existing control activities.

31. Software Engineering Institute Model  The Software Engineering Institute model lists the following steps for risk management: – Identify - look for risks before they become problems. – Analyze – convert the data into information that can be used to make decisions. – Plan - review and evaluate the risks and decide the actions to mitigate them. – Track - monitor the risks and the mitigation plans. – Control - make corrections for deviations from the risk mitigation plans.

32. Risk Management Model Risk complexity versus project size

33. Qualitatively Assessing Risk  To qualitatively assess risk, the impact of the threat needs to be compared with the probability of occurrence.  For example, if a threat has a high impact and a high probability of occurring, the risk exposure is high.  Conversely, if the impact is low with a low probability, the risk exposure is low.

34. Qualitatively Assessing Risk Binary Assessment

35. Qualitatively Assessing Risk Three levels of analysis

36. Qualitatively Assessing Risk A 3 by 5 level analysis

37. Qualitatively Assessing Risk Example of a combination assessment

38. Quantitatively Assessing Risk  Quantitative risk assessment applies historical information and trends to predict future performance.  It is dependent on historical data, gathering which can be difficult.

39. Quantitatively Assessing Risk  Quantitative risk assessment may also rely on models.  These models provide decision-making information in the form of quantitative metrics, which attempt to measure risk levels across a common scale.

40. Quantitatively Assessing Risk  Key assumptions underlie any model, and different models will produce different results even when the input data is the same.  Despite research in improving and refining the various risk analysis models, expertise and experience are considered essential for risk assessment.  Models can never replace judgment and experience, but they can enhance the decision-making process.

41. Adding Objectivity to a Qualitative Assessment Adding Weights and Definitions to the Potential Impact

42. Adding Objectivity to a Qualitative Assessment Adding Values to Assessments

43. A Common Objective Approach  More complex models allow analyses based on statistical and mathematical models.  A common method is the calculation of the annualized loss expectancy (ALE).  This calculation begins by calculating single-loss expectancy (SLE) with the following formula: – SLE = asset value * exposure factor

44. A Common Objective Approach Final quantitative assessment of the findings

45. Qualitative versus Quantitative Risk Assessment  It is impossible to conduct risk management that is purely quantitative.  Usually risk management includes both qualitative and quantitative elements, requiring both analysis and judgment or experience.  It is possible to accomplish purely qualitative risk management.

46. Qualitative versus Quantitative Risk Assessment  The decision of whether to use qualitative versus quantitative risk management depends on: – The criticality of the project. – The resources available. – The management style.  The decision will be influenced by the degree to which the fundamental risk management metrics can be quantitatively defined.

47. Tools to Enhance Risk Management The tools that can be used during the various phases of risk assessment are: – Affinity grouping - A method of identifying related items and then identifying the principle that ties them together into a group. – Baseline identification and analysis - The process of establishing a baseline set of risks. It produces a “snapshot” of all the identified risks at a given point in time. – Cause and effect analysis - Identifying relationships between a risk and the factors that can cause it.

48. Tools to Enhance Risk Management The tools that can be used during the various phases of risk assessment are (continued): – Cost/benefit analysis - A method for comparing cost estimates with the benefits of a mitigation strategy. – Gantt charts - A management tool for diagramming schedules, events, and activity duration. – Interrelationship digraphs - A method for identifying cause- and-effect relationships by defining the problem, identifying its key elements, and describing their relationships.

49. Tools to Enhance Risk Management The tools that can be used during the various phases of risk assessment are (continued): – PERT (program evaluation and review technique) charts - A diagram depicting interdependencies between project activities, showing the sequence and duration of each activity. – Risk management plan - A comprehensive plan documenting how risks will be managed on a given project.