1. Trusting Us When It Matters Beale Street Music Festival Support 2008-10 Richard Okulski, WCM NWS WFO Memphis, Tennessee Main Stage, Tom Lee Park – May 2009

2. Decision Support Overview Decision Support Services –Driven By Relationships Between the NWS Forecaster and the Decision Maker WFO Memphis Forecaster Jon Howell Participating In SONS07

3. Decision Support Overview National Weather Service Forecaster –Communicates Concisely in Non-Technical Terms –Communicates In The Decision Maker’s Preferred Method –Understands A Customer’s Specific Needs –Adapts Well to Changeable Working Environments –Knows Role in Incident Command System –Understands The Incident’s “Big Picture” WCM Rich Okulski At MEMA Mobile EOC September 2008

4. Decision Support Overview Decision Maker –Do I Trust You? –Are You A Team Player? –Weather Is Information (Just Like Logistics, Operations) –Can You Provide The Information I Need At The Right Time? –I Want Your Best Estimate and Level of Confidence WFO Memphis WCM Rich Okulski, Madison County, TN EMA Marty Clements, Midland Radio Chief Spokesperson Bruce Thomas and Madison County Mayor Jimmy Harris

5. Beale Street Support in 2008 Major Ongoing Severe Weather Outbreak –EF-3 Earle, AR Tornado (May 2, 2008) Request For On Site Support (Tennessee State EMA) –Not Staffed To Respond To On Site Request Assistant WCM In Southeast Missouri For EMA Meeting MIC and DAPM Conducting Earle Tornado Damage Survey WCM Working Public Forecast Shift Provided Stand Up Weather Brief Via Telephone –Event Organizers Delay Gate Opening For Ninety Minutes Shelby County Mobile EOC

6. Damage Survey Results

7. Beale Street Support in 2009 On Site Support All Three Days Of Festival Strong/Severe Thunderstorms On Friday Night –Decision Not To Evacuate Festival Site Due To Strong Thunderstorm With Frequent Lightning Passing Just North Of Area (GR2Analyst) –Lt. McEwen (Senior Sheriffs’ Office Official) Tells Us Our Support In His Decision Validates Our Presence Tells His Captain About Our Support Heavy Rainfall Rest of Weekend –Memphis in Mud! On Site Support Equipment

8. 2010 Support (Big Picture) Hazardous Weather Outlook –Mention Flash Flood and Severe Weather Threats – Monday April 26 Flash Flood Watch –Issued Morning Of April 29 –Forecast of 4 to 8 Inches With Higher Amounts of 10 to 12 Inches High Impact Conference Call –Thursday April 29 –Reinforced With E-Mail To Decision Makers on Friday April 30 Severe Weather Outlooks –Slight Risk Upgraded To Moderate Risk By 3 PM on April 30 –Upgraded To High Risk Around 8 PM Sent Two E-Mails Specifically To Sheriffs’ Office During Week To Highlight Hazards

9. Weekend Rainfall Totals

10. Event Chance Of Occurrence

11. Severe Weather Outlook

12. Trusting Us When It Matters

13. 2010 Support (Site Specific) On Site Support on April 30 th –Forecaster Jon Howell dispatched to Mobile EOC At 300 PM –Provided Initial Briefing to Shelby County Law Enforcement Team Highlights Severe Weather Threat (East Edge Of Moderate Risk) In Late Evening –Continuous Weather Watch GR2AnlaystNWSChat Coordination With WFO Memphis –900 PM Command Briefing Upgrade To High Risk of Severe Weather Just West of MS River Lightning Risk Due to Nearby Convection Best Estimate Is Severe Weather Will Hold Off Until After End of Day 1 Festivities –Shelby County EMA and Law Enforcement Prepare For Possible Festival Evacuation After Command Briefing –Jon Initiates Critical Weather Update Procedure With Public Officials and Event Organizers Every 30 Minutes Or Whenever Hazardous Weather Approaches Festival Site

14. 2010 Support (Site Specific) Switch to Off Site Support Due to Dual Historic Flood and Tornado Hazards –Notified Sheriffs’ Office POC (Lt. Perry McEwen) About Switch on Saturday AM –Sheriffs’ Office Redeployed Some Assets From Festival to Northern Portions of Memphis Metro Area to Respond to Flooding Assisted Sheriffs Office In Declaring an Evacuation Between 10 PM and 11 PM on May 1 –Tornado Warning In Effect –30,000 People Evacuated in 28 Minutes! –Approximately 25% Legally Intoxicated –Majority of Patrons Under the Age of 25 –Event Organizers Had A Written Evacuation Plan –No Significant Medical or Disorderly Issues

15. Damage Survey Results

16. Event Post Mortem Best Practices –High Impact Calls and E-Mail Updates Are Critical Situational Awareness and Preparedness –Existing Relationship Enhanced Trust Support in 2008-09 Made Tough Decisions Easier in 2010 –Seamless Shift From On Site To Off Site Support Existing Relationships Made Less Than Ideal Situation Doable –Demonstrating We Can Be a Versatile Team Player Lessons Learned –Limitations To WFO Staffing For On Site Support Missions Historic Flooding (10-18 Inches in 24 Hours) Thirty Six Hours of Continuous Severe Weather (14 Tornadoes) –Indirect Impacts of Flooding On Music Festival Sunday’s Main Act (3 Doors Down) Stuck in Nashville Event CEO Pelted With Beer Bottles When He Announced Main Act Cancellation

17. Questions Alice In Chains Main Act About To Go On Stage At Beale Street When Officials Issue Evacuation Order