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DAL Investment Company NoLoad FundX FundX Upgrader Funds Janet Brown Janet Brown
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u Money Management since 1969 – $2 million minimum $1.3 Billion aggregate assets under management. u NoLoad FundX Newsletter since 1976 – 13,000 subscribers u Manager of FundX Upgrader Funds since 2001 – $850 million While the funds are no-load, management fees and other expenses still apply. Please refer to the prospectus for further details. DAL’s proprietary newsletter composed of hypothetical portfolios of investments chosen using the Upgrading strategy. DAL Investment Company
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Agenda 40 Years of Following Market Leadership – What has happened in the market and our firm The Upgrading Strategy Applied – How we build portfolios and manage risk – Relative performance and observations New Tools and How to Use Them – Why we built them – What we’re working on Q&A
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History of Upgrading
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Accolades
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What is Upgrading ? Why Upgrading Works Current Performance is Key Many Ways to Upgrade Common Objections
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Upgrading An effective, disciplined response to changing market conditions.
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As measured by the S&P 500 Index 1 Upgrading StocksAverage Equity Investor Inflation 15.2% Source of chart data: Dalbar, Inc. Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior, July 2008 update. QAIB calculates investor returns as the change in assets, after excluding sales, edemptions and exchanges Upgrading ‘s performance per the Hulbert Financial Digest. (Average Annual Returns 1987 – July 2008) 20 Year Performance
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How Upgrading Works
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Invest in the funds currently leading the market. Stay with the winners and Upgrade the laggards. Stay with the Winners
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10 Year Performance
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Managers Don’t Change. Markets Do. Why Upgrading Works Most managers have a particular investment strategy that performs well in some but not all market environments.
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Rotation of Market Leadership Value and Growth investment styles Small cap and Large cap International and Domestic
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Upgrading vs Market Indices
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International & Domestic
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Upgrading & Market Changes
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Upgrading Fundamentals u Don’t Forecast. Accept the market’s trends whether or not we understand the reasons for these trends. u Realize the market will change. Stay alert in order to recognize changes in the market environment. u Move incrementally. Rotation generally occurs in fits and starts, and often fails to endure.
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Monthly Upgrader Portfolio Core of Class 3 funds Limited exposure to more volatile funds Holds funds a minimum of 90 days, often longer Usually lower turnover
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Yearly Performance Record
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Upgrading vs Buy and Hold CumulativeAnnualized Monthly Upgrader Portfolio 40.41%3.84% Russell 2000 11.07%1.17% DJIA -6.93%-0.71% EAFE -19.18%-2.34% S&P 500 -28.27%-3.62% Nasdaq -61.25%-10.00% 2000 through 2008
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Managing Volatility
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? Flexible Income Strategy
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Setting Expectations Upgrading only outperforms 55% of the time Class 3 funds are typically fully invested The beta (risk) of Upgraded portfolios changes over time Many individual trades do not add value Upgrading usually lags in transitions Upgrading has consistently outperformed through market cycles for long term investors!
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Market transitions
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27+ Year Performance
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Tax Efficiency of the MUP
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2008: Life on the Left Tail Calendar Year Stock Returns (1825-2008) Source: Robert Shiller, FMRCo (MARE) as of 12/31/2008.
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Recovery Times
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Basic Choices Assets Stocks Commodities Real Estate Debt Bonds Preferred Stocks Cash
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Investing in Cash Not A Compelling Long-Term Strategy Source: Ibbotson, FMRCo (MARE) as of 11/30/2008. Figures assume reinvestment of capital gains and dividends, but does not reflect sales charges or taxes, which would lower these figures. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. You cannot invest directly in an index. See footnotes for important index definitions. Cash – Ibbotson Associates SBBI 30 Day TBill Total Return Index; Inflation – Ibbotson Associates SBBI U.S. Inflation; Bonds – MARE Custom Bond Index (see footnotes page for details.) $12.173.1% U.S. Inflation $20.503.7%Cash $83.815.5%Bonds $2,023.729.6%S&P 500 Ending Value Average Annual Return Value of $1 Invested (1925-2008) 2008
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What We Know Limited Investment Options Current Yields of Bonds and Cash Recent Stock Market Returns Current Stock Valuations
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2009: S&P500 Index YTD
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What We Don’t Know Future Inflation When Interest Rates will Go Up Will the Stock Market Bottom? - When and at What Level
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3 Year Investment (1925-2008)
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10 Year Investment (1925-2008)
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20 Year Investment (1925-2008)
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Allocation Changes Over Time CashBondsStocks Year 1Year 25 Years 1-2 Years 3-7 Years 8-12 Years 13-17 Years 18-25
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Allocation Changes Over Time CashBondsStocks 20342009 2034 2014203420242034 2030 2032-2034 8%24%68% 10%30%60% 20%42%38% 50%30%20% 100% 0% 0%
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Risk Classification and Portfolio Construction /Management Current High Ranking Funds ClassTypeTicker 1ChinaMCHFX /FXI 1GoldGLD 2Em MktsEEM 2Mid Cap BUFMX/DVLIX 2 TCW select TGCNX 3HussmanHSGFX 3Oakmk IntlOAKIX 3SP500 EqRSP Portfolio Weight MUPFUNDXHOTFX 1.4%1.1%2.9% 2%2.5%5.3% 3%3.3%7.5% 2.6%1.7%3.6% 2.6%0.7%4.4% 9.7%6.3%4.9% 4.7%5.1%4.9% 6.8%6.9%5.5%
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Risk Expected Return Money Market Risk Spectrum (Mutual Funds) Growth Funds Balanced Funds Fixed Income Concentrated and Leveraged Funds Aggressive Growth Funds
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Risk Expected Return Money Market Risk Spectrum (NoLoad Fund*X) MUP Class 3 Class 4 Class 1 Class 2 MFIP Class 5
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Risk Expected Return HOTFX/UNBOX FUNDX/REMIX RELAX INCMX Risk Spectrum (Upgrader Funds) TACTX STOCX
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Upgrading Applied to ETFs
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Decisions Often leads to disappointment… many “timers” are really “avoiders” Tempting, but most investors lack the tools, discipline and knowledge
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What do we mean by “Tactical” Fully InvestedFully “Hedged”
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Popular Timing Models Moving Averages Stop Losses Valuations Rebalancing Don’t Fight the Fed Gut Feelings
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A Weight of the Evidence Approach
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Examples of Key Factors Expanding or Contracting Money Supply Valuations (Relative to Normal Earnings) Number of New Highs Vs. New Lows Volume in Advances Vs. Declines Bond Yields Vs. Earnings Yield or Dividends Percentage of Industries in Uptrend Sentiment
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Composite Model 10 models, equally weighted +1 = buy, 0 = neutral, -1=sell If net score -1 or lower, hedge If net score >+2, fully invested
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Pros and Cons of Timing Pros Allows opportunity to participate in market gains with a trigger to help avoid some declines. May improve long-term performance and reduce volatility. Cons May be out of synch with a significant advance. Requires more frequent trading and therefore may incur greater tax liability. May sell after a decline and miss an advance before getting back in.
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Putting The Pieces Together Step 1: Determine a Realistic Asset Allocation to Fund Your Goals and Objectives. Step 2: Decide What Strategy to Use and If You Want to Include a Timing or Tactical Model, or Simply Stick to a Static Allocation. Step 3: Stick to Your Discipline
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Investor Questionnaire Step 1: Answer five simple questions to determine your risk tolerance
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Investor Questionnaire Step 2: Determine the time horizon for your accounts Saving for a House Child’s College Fund Retirement
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Insights Ultimately, you need a long-term strategy you believe in, that has the potential to fund your long-term goals. You also need to be realistic and recognize that unexpected events will happen. Actions should be based on what works most of the time, but you should also have a plan for how to handle “unacceptable” loss.
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Tactical Total Return Most Conservative Posture Most Aggressive Posture
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On the Web NoLoad Fund*X Newsletter: NoLoad Fund*X Newsletter: www.fundx.com DAL Investment Company: DAL Investment Company: www.dal-investment.com FundX Upgrader Funds: FundX Upgrader Funds: www.fundxfund.com
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NoLoad FundX Article TopicIssue Cash Isn’t Compelling Long TermJanuary 2009 Select the Right Mix for RecoveryDecember 2008 Is Rebalancing Necessary?December 2008 How Long To Recover?November 2008 Focus Forward: Lessons from the last 39 Years of Upgrading November 2008 Recovery & RepairOctober 2008 Managing Market VolatilityAugust 2008 Staying Disciplined in Challenging MarketsJuly 2008
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