1. The Paradox of Iran Like a Persian carpet, Iran is complicated, multi-layered, and complex.

2. Impact of Geography The north leans more to the left, due to its exposure to communism The eastern borders are more conservative Tehran is more developed, at the expense of poor and rural areas 1000 people/day migrate to Tehran

3. The Economy Over-reliance on oil created a rentier state 90% of revenue comes from oil Iran is vulnerable to the global market Subsidies are a drag on the economy Iran needs to diversify

4. Urbanization 65% of the population lives in urban areas Population growth will have repercussions There is sex education, condoms

5. Education 1/3 of all Iranians are students Students are politically active and cause problems for the state Women benefit from education

6. Population 66 million 30 million added since the Revolution Iran’s young population will create economic pressures

7. Iranian Youth Voting age is 16 Young people don’t remember the Revolution There is nostalgia about the “good old days” under the Shah

8. Women Representation is male dominated Women are the underdogs in divorce and custody 63% of university students are women The middle class rejects polygamy The dress code fluctuates

9. The Media Thriving cinema and translation industry Investigative journalism A paradox: a repressive regime with intellectual property

10. Elections Elections are real and competitive but limited They are not synonymous with democracy Rule is by divine right, with some elements of popular sovereignty

11. Council of Guardians Authority to disqualify candidates for president and majles “Safeguards reputation” Candidates must believe in Islamic law and support the Supreme Leader

12. Legitimacy Clerics battle with technocrats Clerics battle each other National cohesion Sources include Islam and economic performance Repression hinders legitimacy

13. Government and Islam Islam is not contrary to capitalism Religious endowments claim land Islam is legalistic but does not have specific answers to all problems, especially economic ones Islam is modified from within

14. Iran’s Predicament The state has lost some legitimacy, but there are no serious challenges to its authority Class disparities have increased The young population will create economic pressure in the future The clergy will be faced with having to “deliver the goods”