1. Chapter 8 - Implementation and Project Management © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Learning™ Slides prepared by Jeff Heyl, Lincoln University

2. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-2 8.1Implementation and Project Modeling The Project Modeling ProcessThe Project Modeling Process Structure of the ChapterStructure of the Chapter

3. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-3 8.2Implementing the Modeling Study Soft AspectsSoft Aspects Rational Issues and ReconsiderationRational Issues and Reconsideration The Role of Project ManagementThe Role of Project Management Example: Moose LakeExample: Moose Lake

4. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-4 Step 1: Analysis of the ProjectStep 1: Analysis of the Project Step 2: Sequence the ActivitiesStep 2: Sequence the Activities Step 3: Estimate Activity Times and CostsStep 3: Estimate Activity Times and Costs 8.3Planning the Project

5. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-5 8.4Scheduling the Project 8.4Scheduling the Project Step 4: Construct the NetworkStep 4: Construct the Network Step 5: Event AnalysisStep 5: Event Analysis PERT/CPM Network CharacteristicsPERT/CPM Network Characteristics Estimating Activity Times in PERTEstimating Activity Times in PERT Finding the Probabilities of Completion in PERTFinding the Probabilities of Completion in PERT Example: Finding the Probability of Completion within a Desired Time, DExample: Finding the Probability of Completion within a Desired Time, D Example: Finding the Duration Associated with a Desired ProbabilityExample: Finding the Duration Associated with a Desired Probability Determining the Distribution of Project Completion Times with SimulationDetermining the Distribution of Project Completion Times with Simulation

6. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-6 8.5Step 6: Monitoring and Controlling the Project 8.5Step 6: Monitoring and Controlling the Project Monitoring the ProjectMonitoring the Project Controlling the ProjectControlling the Project Example: Resource Allocation ScheduleExample: Resource Allocation Schedule Critical Path Method (CPM): Cost–Time Trade-OffsCritical Path Method (CPM): Cost–Time Trade-Offs Example: Finding the Least-Cost PlanExample: Finding the Least-Cost Plan Example: Least-Cost Plan for 22 DaysExample: Least-Cost Plan for 22 Days Analyzing Cost–Time Trade-Offs with Excel’s SolverAnalyzing Cost–Time Trade-Offs with Excel’s Solver

7. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-7 8.6Detailed Modeling Example Step 1: Opportunity/Problem RecognitionStep 1: Opportunity/Problem Recognition Step 2: Model FormulationStep 2: Model Formulation Step 3: Data CollectionStep 3: Data Collection Step 4: Analysis of the ModelStep 4: Analysis of the Model Step 5: ImplementationStep 5: Implementation

8. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-8 Questions Experiential Exercise Modeling Exercises Case:NutriTech Case: Dart Investments Questions Experiential Exercise Modeling Exercises Case:NutriTech Case: Dart Investments

9. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-9 RecSys, Inc. Problem Exhibit 8.1 Plant lead times Work-in- process Demand Activities of competitors Policy for setting due dates Advertising and promotions Reduce late shipments Release rate of work Plant capacity

10. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-10 The Project Modeling Process Primary objective: Achieve the project’s goals, on time and on budget Lay out the tasks to be performed (WBS)Lay out the tasks to be performed (WBS) Establish expected times for each taskEstablish expected times for each task Sequence the tasksSequence the tasks Identify required resourcesIdentify required resources Construct appropriate modelsConstruct appropriate models

11. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-11 Implementing the Modeling Study Can be a long and complex processCan be a long and complex process Involves rational elements (costs, benefits)Involves rational elements (costs, benefits) Involves ‘soft’ issues (communication, behavior, power, politics)Involves ‘soft’ issues (communication, behavior, power, politics) Studies often grow and change (scope creep)Studies often grow and change (scope creep)

12. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-12 Soft Aspects Implementing a study requires dealing with peopleImplementing a study requires dealing with people –Cooperation –Coordination –Communication Selection of project managerSelection of project manager Conflict resolutionConflict resolution NegotiationNegotiation Implementation climateImplementation climate

13. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-13 Soft Aspects Organizational validityOrganizational validity –Individual fit –Small group fit –Organizational fit Top management supportTop management support Cognitive stylesCognitive styles –Analytical –Intuitive People and organizations often resist changePeople and organizations often resist change

14. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-14 Change Management Studies can introduce social, technical, psychological, or structural changesStudies can introduce social, technical, psychological, or structural changes Change can upset established patterns of behaviorChange can upset established patterns of behavior Peer and work group pressure is an effective motivator of changePeer and work group pressure is an effective motivator of change Participation is an especially effective toolParticipation is an especially effective tool

15. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-15 Rational Issues and Reconsideration Cost-benefit or cost-effectiveness analysisCost-benefit or cost-effectiveness analysis Determining actual costs can be challengingDetermining actual costs can be challenging Defining and timing and amount of benefit may be even more difficultDefining and timing and amount of benefit may be even more difficult Required resources must committed at the beginning of the studyRequired resources must committed at the beginning of the study

16. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-16 Who will be responsible for executing each portion of the project?Who will be responsible for executing each portion of the project? When must each part be completed?When must each part be completed? What resources will be required for each of the parts?What resources will be required for each of the parts? What information will be needed, and where will it come from?What information will be needed, and where will it come from? Rational Issues and Reconsideration

17. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-17 Project Management 1.Duration may be weeks, months, or years 2.Complex in nature 3.Delays are often costly 4.Most of the activities are sequential 5.Generally a unique undertaking

18. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-18 Project Management Common Project Characteristics UniquenessWide visibility Fixed durationExtensive Complexity interactions High Uncertainty interdependence Exhibit 8.2

19. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-19 Project Management PERT – Program Evaluation and Review TechniquePERT – Program Evaluation and Review Technique CPM – Critical Path MethodCPM – Critical Path Method

20. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-20 Project Management PERT – Program Evaluation and Review TechniquePERT – Program Evaluation and Review Technique CPM – Critical Path MethodCPM – Critical Path Method ActivityActivity EventEvent MilestonesMilestones ProjectProject NetworkNetwork Critical ActivityCritical Activity PathPath Critical PathCritical Path

21. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-21 Project Management PERT – Program Evaluation and Review TechniquePERT – Program Evaluation and Review Technique CPM – Critical Path MethodCPM – Critical Path Method ActivityActivity EventEvent MilestonesMilestones ProjectProject NetworkNetwork Critical ActivityCritical Activity PathPath Critical PathCritical Path PERT is a probabilistic tool – uses a weighted average completion time CPM is a deterministic tool – but explicitly includes costs

22. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-22 Project Management Purpose is to identify critical activities and determine slack or float 1.Which activities are critical 2.Which activities are noncritical 3.The amount of slack and how long the start of the activity can be delayed without delaying the completion of the project

23. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-23 Planning the Project CEO VP Marketing Marketing projects VP Operations Operations projects VP Finance Finance projects (a) Functional organization Exhibit 8.3

24. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-24 Planning the Project Exhibit 8.3 Project manager CEO Program manager VP Marketing VP Operations VP Finance Project manager (b) Matrix organization Project 1 Project 2

25. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-25 Work Breakdown Structure DurationRequired Immediately ActivityDescription(Weeks)Preceding Activities aSet up administration3None bHire personnel4q cObtain materials4q dTransport materials2c to Moose Lake to Moose Lake eGather measuring team4a fDevelop schedule6c gAssemble equipment3d, b hPlan evaluation1e IOxygenate12f, g jMeasure and evaluate2I, h Exhibit 8.4

26. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-26 Scheduling the Project 1 2 a Exhibit 8.5

27. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-27 Scheduling the Project 1 2 a Exhibit 8.5 1 2 3 4 5 abc e Exhibit 8.6

28. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-28 Scheduling the Project Exhibit 8.7 PERT Network for Moose Lake Project a b c e 3 5 124 678 dfg h i j

29. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-29 Scheduling the Project ab 3 1 2 4 c 5 6 31 24 a b d c e f 5 31 24 a b d c a and b can start simultaneously, but c can start only after both a and b are finished. a and b can start simultaneously, c can start after a is completed, but d must wait for both a and b to finish. (Dummy activity) e can start after a and c are completed, but f must wait until a, b, c, and d are completed. Exhibit 8.8 Network Relationships

30. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-30 Scheduling the Project ActivityRequired Preceding Activities aNone bNone cb da, c ea fd, e

31. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-31 Scheduling the Project 3 14 256ab c d ef Exhibit 8.9

32. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-32 Scheduling the Project 3 14 256ab c d ef Exhibit 8.9 Dummy Activity

33. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-33 Scheduling the Project Comparison of PERT and a Gantt Chart 1 2 3 423 4 2 (a) PERT network Exhibit 8.10

34. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-34 Scheduling the Project Comparison of PERT and a Gantt Chart 1 2 3 423 4 2 (a) PERT network ||||||||| 012345678Time 1 - 2 2 - 4 1 - 3 3 - 4 (b) Equivalent Gantt chart Exhibit 8.10

35. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-35 Scheduling the Project Enter time estimates and compute earliest and latest dates a(3) b(4) c(4) e(4) 3 5 1 2 4678 d(2) f(6) g(3) h(1) i(12) j(2) Exhibit 8.12

36. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-36 Scheduling the Project Enter time estimates and compute earliest and latest dates a(3) b(4) c(4) e(4) 3 5 1 2 4678 d(2) f(6) g(3) h(1) i(12) j(2) Exhibit 8.12 a(15) b(17) T E = 17 (a)Earliest date of latest activity Exhibit 8.13

37. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-37 Scheduling the Project Enter time estimates and compute earliest and latest dates a(3) b(4) c(4) e(4) 3 5 1 2 4678 d(2) f(6) g(3) h(1) i(12) j(2) Exhibit 8.12 a(15) b(17) T E = 17 (a)Earliest date of latest activity 15 17 10 20 20 20 T L = 3 (b)Earliest date without delay Exhibit 8.13

38. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-38 Scheduling the Project Enter time estimates and compute earliest and latest dates a(3) b(4) c(4) e(4) 3 5 1 2 4678 d(2) f(6) g(3) h(1) i(12) j(2) Exhibit 8.12

39. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-39 Scheduling the Project Enter time estimates and compute earliest and latest dates Exhibit 8.14 a(3) b(4) c(4) e(4) 3 5 1 2 4678 d(2) f(6) g(3) h(1) i(12) j(2) T E = 0 T L = 0 T E = 3 T L = 3 T E = 7 T L = 7 T E = 7 T L = 24 T E = 9 T L = 10 T E = 13 T L = 13 T E = 25 T L = 25 T E = 27 T L = 27

40. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-40 Scheduling the Project Enter time estimates and compute earliest and latest dates Exhibit 8.14 a(3) b(4) c(4) e(4) 3 5 1 2 4678 d(2) f(6) g(3) h(1) i(12) j(2) T E = 0 T L = 0 T E = 3 T L = 3 T E = 7 T L = 7 T E = 7 T L = 24 T E = 9 T L = 10 T E = 13 T L = 13 T E = 25 T L = 25 T E = 27 T L = 27 T E = 7 T E = 9T E = 3 c(4) b(4) d(2) 2 3 4 Exhibit 8.15

41. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-41 Scheduling the Project Find the Slack on the Activities and Identify Critical Activities Exhibit 8.14 a(3) b(4) c(4) e(4) 3 5 1 2 4678 d(2) f(6) g(3) h(1) i(12) j(2) T E = 0 T L = 0 T E = 3 T L = 3 T E = 7 T L = 7 T E = 7 T L = 24 T E = 9 T L = 10 T E = 13 T L = 13 T E = 25 T L = 25 T E = 27 T L = 27

42. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-42 Scheduling the Project Find the Slack on the Activities and Identify Critical Activities Exhibit 8.16 a(3) b(4) c(4) e(4) 3 5 1 2 4678 d(2) f(6) g(3) h(1) i(12) j(2) T E = 0 T L = 0 T E = 3 T L = 3 T E = 7 T L = 7 T E = 7 T L = 24 T E = 9 T L = 10 T E = 13 T L = 13 T E = 25 T L = 25 T E = 27 T L = 27 ActivityT L MinusT E Minust e =Slack (TF) a3-0-3=0 b10343 c7343 d10721 e243417 f13760 g13931 h257117 I2513120 j272520 Calculating Activity Slacks

43. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-43 Scheduling the Project Find the Slack on the Activities and Identify Critical Activities Exhibit 8.16 a(3) b(4) c(4) e(4) 3 5 1 2 4678 d(2) f(6) g(3) h(1) i(12) j(2) T E = 0 T L = 0 T E = 3 T L = 3 T E = 7 T L = 7 T E = 7 T L = 24 T E = 9 T L = 10 T E = 13 T L = 13 T E = 25 T L = 25 T E = 27 T L = 27 ActivityT L MinusT E Minust e =Slack (TF) a3-0-3=0 b10343 c7343 d10721 e243417 f13760 g13931 h257117 I2513120 j272520 Calculating Activity Slacks 1 2 3 58 6 Exhibit 8.17 Regular Slack 5 27 e(4) Critical = 22 weeks h(1) Exhibit 8.18 Shared Slack 1 23 d(30) Critical = 30 weeks c(5) Exhibit 8.19 Shared Slack 4 a(3) b(4)

44. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-44 Scheduling the Project 3 5 1 2 4678 Finding the Probabilities of Completion in PERT a(3) b(4) c(4) e(4) d(2) f(6) g(3) h(1) i(12) j(2)

45. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-45 Scheduling the Project MostWeighted OptimisticLikelyPessimisticAverage ActivityDescription(t o )(t m )(t p )(t e ) a Set up administration 1353 b Hire personnel 13114 c Obtain materials 3454 d Transport materials 1232 to Moose Lake to Moose Lake e Gather measuring team 3394 f Develop schedule 25146 g Assemble equipment 2343 h Plan evaluation 1111 I Oxygenate 12121212 j Measure and evaluate 1232 Exhibit 8.20

46. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-46 Scheduling the Project MostWeighted OptimisticLikelyPessimisticAverage ActivityDescription(t o )(t m )(t p )(t e ) a Set up administration 1353 b Hire personnel 13114 c Obtain materials 3454 d Transport materials 1232 to Moose Lake to Moose Lake e Gather measuring team 3394 f Develop schedule 25146 g Assemble equipment 2343 h Plan evaluation 1111 I Oxygenate 12121212 j Measure and evaluate 1232 Exhibit 8.20 20 – 10 – 5 – 1 – – Frequency (percent) Activity duration (weeks) totmtetptotmtetp ||||||||||||| 0123456789101112 Exhibit 8.21

47. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-47 Scheduling the Project MostWeighted OptimisticLikelyPessimisticAverage ActivityDescription(t o )(t m )(t p )(t e ) a Set up administration 1353 b Hire personnel 13114 c Obtain materials 3454 d Transport materials 1232 to Moose Lake to Moose Lake e Gather measuring team 3394 f Develop schedule 25146 g Assemble equipment 2343 h Plan evaluation 1111 I Oxygenate 12121212 j Measure and evaluate 1232 Exhibit 8.20 20 – 10 – 5 – 1 – – Frequency (percent) Activity duration (weeks) totmtetptotmtetp ||||||||||||| 0123456789101112 t e = t o + 4t m + t p 6 Standard deviation =  = t p - t o 6 Variance =  2 = t p - t o 6 2 Exhibit 8.21

48. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-48 Scheduling the Project 3 5 1 2 4678 Chance of Completing Path a-c-f-i-j in 25, 27, and 30 Weeks a(3) b(4) c(4) e(4) d(2) f(6) g(3) h(1) i(12) j(2)

49. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-49 Scheduling the Project Chance of Completing Path a-c-f-i-j in 25, 27, and 30 Weeks 3 5 1 2 4678 a(3) b(4) c(4) e(4) d(2) f(6) g(3) h(1) i(12) j(2) |||||| 252627282930 17.62% Shaded area = 91.77% Weeks Exhibit 8.24 50%

50. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-50 Scheduling the Project Determining the Distribution of Project Completion Times with Simulation 3 5 1 2 4678 a(3) b(4) c(4) e(4) d(2) f(6) g(3) h(1) i(12) j(2)

51. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-51 Scheduling the Project Determining the Distribution of Project Completion Times with Simulation 3 5 1 2 4678 a(3) b(4) c(4) e(4) d(2) f(6) g(3) h(1) i(12) j(2) 40 – 35 – 30 – 25 – 20 – 15 – 10 – 5 – 0 – Frequency |||||| 2527293133More Project completion time (weeks) Exhibit 8.29

52. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-52 Monitoring and Controlling the Project Cost variance reportsCost variance reports Critical ratioCritical ratio Earned valueEarned value – Spending variance – Schedule variance – Time variance

53. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-53 Monitoring and Controlling the Project Transferring resources to critical activitiesTransferring resources to critical activities Relaxing technical specificationsRelaxing technical specifications Changing the scope of the projectChanging the scope of the project Changing the sequence of activitiesChanging the sequence of activities Obtaining additional resourcesObtaining additional resources Expediting activitiesExpediting activities Starting activities while preceding ones are still being worked onStarting activities while preceding ones are still being worked on Delays can be corrected by:

54. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-54 Monitoring and Controlling the Project Resource Allocation Schedule 3 4 12 5 1 235 42 Exhibit 8.30

55. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-55 Monitoring and Controlling the Project Resource Allocation Schedule 3 4 12 5 1 235 42 EarliestLatest Slack ActivityStartStart (T F )Employees 1–20002 1–30442 1–40443 2–32202 3–57701 4–51542 Exhibit 8.31

56. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-56 Monitoring and Controlling the Project 3 4 12 5 1 235 42 Exhibit 8.32 Resource Allocation Schedule |||||||||| 0123456789Weeks 1235 222222211222222211222222211222222211 766442211766442211766442211766442211 32222322223222232222 222222222222 Activities 1–3 Activities 4–5 4 Total

57. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-57 Monitoring and Controlling the Project 3 4 12 5 1 235 42 Exhibit 8.33 Resource Allocation Schedule |||||||||| 0123456789Weeks 1235 222222211222222211222222211222222211 766442211766442211766442211766442211 32222322223222232222 222222222222 Activities 1–3 Activities 4–5 4 Total Employees Weeks 7 – 6 – 5 – 4 – 3 – 2 – 1 – 0 – ||||||||||0123456789||||||||||0123456789

58. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-58 Monitoring and Controlling the Project 3 4 12 5 1 235 42 Exhibit 8.34 Resource Allocation Schedule |||||||||| 0123456789Weeks 1235 222222211222222211222222211222222211 766442211766442211766442211766442211 32222322223222232222 222222222222 Activities 1–3 Activities 4–5 4 Total Employees Weeks 7 – 6 – 5 – 4 – 3 – 2 – 1 – 0 – ||||||||||0123456789||||||||||0123456789 Resource Allocation Schedule 1235 222222211222222211222222211222222211 32222322223222232222 222222222222 Total required 44444444444444444444 33333333 2 5

59. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-59 Critical Path Method TcTxTnTcTxTnTcTxTnTcTxTn CcCcCxCxCnCnCcCcCxCxCnCnTime Cost Crash point (T c, C c ) Normal point (T n, C n ) Linear cost–time relationship Nonlinear cost–time relationship Point (T x, C x ) Exhibit 8.35

60. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-60 Critical Path Method TcTxTnTcTxTnTcTxTnTcTxTn CcCcCxCxCnCnCcCcCxCxCnCnTime Cost Crash point (T c, C c ) Normal point (T n, C n ) Linear cost–time relationship Nonlinear cost–time relationship Point (T x, C x ) Exhibit 8.35 CPM Labeling 2 3 T c, T n C c, C n 3, 5 $5,200; $4,000 1 Exhibit 8.36

61. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-61 CPM Analysis 0 1 2 3 4 5 A B CDE FGH I Exhibit 8.37

62. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-62 CPM Analysis Exhibit 8.38 Cost ActivityTimeCostTimeCostSlope A5$1004$14040 B9200730050 C7250434030 D9280734030 E5250246070 F11400772080 G6300442060 I880614030 Total$1,860$2,860 NormalCrash

63. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-63 CPM Analysis Exhibit 8.39 Cost ActivityTimeCostTimeCostSlope A5$1004$14040 B9200730050 C7250434030 D9280734030 E5250246070 F11400772080 G6300442060 I880614030 Total$1,860$2,860 NormalCrash 0 1 2 3 4 5 5A5A 9B9B 7C7C 9D9D 2E2E 7F7F 6G6G 0H0H 8I8I All–Normal Solution, 25 Days

64. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-64 CPM Analysis Exhibit 8.40 Cost ActivityTimeCostTimeCostSlope A5$1004$14040 B9200730050 C7250434030 D9280734030 E5250246070 F11400772080 G6300442060 I880614030 Total$1,860$2,860 NormalCrash 0 1 2 3 4 5 4A4A 7B7B 4C4C 7D7D 2E2E 7F7F 4G4G 0H0H 6I6I All–Crash Solution, 17 Days

65. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-65 CPM Analysis Exhibit 8.41 Cost ActivityTimeCostTimeCostSlope A5$1004$14040 B9200730050 C7250434030 D9280734030 E5250246070 F11400772080 G6300442060 I880614030 Total$1,860$2,860 NormalCrash 0 1 2 3 4 5 4A4A 8B8B 4C4C 7D7D 3E3E 9F9F 6G6G 0H0H 6I6I Least–Cost Crash Schedule of 17 Days ($2,460)

66. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-66 CPM Analysis Cost–Time Trade–Offs 0171819202122232425 $2,860$2,460$2,280$2,100$2,010$1,980$1,950$1,860 All crash (17 days, $2,860) All normal ($1,860) A (17 Days, $2,460) B (22 days, $1,950) Exhibit 8.42

67. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-67 CPM Analysis Cost–Time Trade–Offs 0171819202122232425 $2,860$2,460$2,280$2,100$2,010$1,980$1,950$1,860 All crash (17 days, $2,860) All normal ($1,860) A (17 Days, $2,460) B (22 days, $1,950) Exhibit 8.43 0 1 2 3 4 5 5A5A 9B9B 4C4C 9D9D 5E5E 11 F 6G6G 0H0H 8I8I A 22–Day, Least–Cost Schedule

68. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-68 CPM Analysis Cost–Time Trade–Offs 0171819202122232425 $2,860$2,460$2,280$2,100$2,010$1,980$1,950$1,860 All crash (17 days, $2,860) All normal ($1,860) A (17 Days, $2,460) B (22 days, $1,950) Exhibit 8.44 0 1 2 3 4 5 5A5A 9B9B 4C4C 9D9D 5E5E 11 F 6G6G 0H0H 6I6I A 20–Day, Least–Cost Schedule

69. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-69 CPM Analysis Cost–Time Trade–Offs 0171819202122232425 $2,860$2,460$2,280$2,100$2,010$1,980$1,950$1,860 All crash (17 days, $2,860) All normal ($1,860) A (17 Days, $2,460) B (22 days, $1,950) Exhibit 8.45 0 1 2 3 4 5 4A4A 8B8B 4C4C 9D9D 5E5E 11 F 6G6G 0H0H 6I6I A 19–Day, Least–Cost Schedule

70. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-70 CPM Analysis Cost–Time Trade–Offs 0171819202122232425 $2,860$2,460$2,280$2,100$2,010$1,980$1,950$1,860 All crash (17 days, $2,860) All normal ($1,860) A (17 Days, $2,460) B (22 days, $1,950) 0 1 2 3 4 5 4A4A 8B8B 4C4C 9D9D 5E5E 11 F 6G6G 0H0H 6I6I A 19–Day, Least–Cost Schedule Time Total cost Cost of delay Cost of expediting Exhibit 8.46

71. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-71 RecSys, Inc. Problem Quantitative modeling project Define problem Interview key personnel (A) Revise influence diagram (B) Collect data Operations data Marketing/sales data (G) Part routings (C) Machine capacity (D) Order release policy (E) Performance data (F) Develop simulation model Code (H) Validate (I) Pilot runs (J) Analysis Experimental design (K) Run models (L) ANOVA (M) Exhibit 8.51

72. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-72 RecSys, Inc. Problem 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 11 12 13 14 A BCD E F G H I J K L M Exhibit 8.53

73. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-73 RecSys, Inc. Problem 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 11 12 13 14 A BCD E F G H I J K L M Exhibit 8.53 90 – 80 – 70 – 60 – 50 – 40 – 30 – 20 – 10 – 0 – | 2527293133More Exhibit 8.57

74. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-74 Swimming Pool Project MostImmediate ActivityDescriptionOptimisticLikelyPessimisticPredecessor ADesign pool5814None BObtain permit31428A CLay out yard 248A, B and dig hole DInstall plumbing 125B and wiring EApply pool concrete126D FPour concrete patio125E GFinish pool surface 124E HLay patio tile123F IFinish lights 114G and plumbing JFill pool117I

75. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-75 MostImmediate ActivityDescriptionOptimisticLikelyPessimisticPredecessor ADesign pool5814None BObtain permit31428A CLay out yard 248A, B and dig hole DInstall plumbing 125B and wiring EApply pool concrete126D FPour concrete patio125E GFinish pool surface 124E HLay patio tile123F IFinish lights 114G and plumbing JFill pool117I Swimming Pool Project 12345 6 7 8 9 10 ABCDE F G H J I

76. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-76 Swimming Pool Project

77. © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Slide 8-77 Swimming Pool Project