1. Habitat modelling – Methods and examples Gdansk 2008-06-10 Martin Isæus www.aquabiota.se

2. Wave exposure SWM Simplified Wave Model (Isaeus 2004)

3. SWM 2007 Wave Exposure

4. Wave exposure SWM

5. Wave exposure SWM, recalculated to seafloor

6. EUNIS, 6 classes

7. EUNIS, 9 classes

8. Spatial modelleing Statistiskt samband Modell GRASP, Maxent Prediktion

9. Marine geology Blue – Till overlays sedimentary rock Light blue – till Orange – Sand and gravel

10. Wave exposure STWAVE Storgrunden STWAVE

11. Quality of bathymetry Multi-beam Persgrunden R 2 = 0.95 Sjökort Markallen R 2 = 0.59

12. Resolution of indata visible in output Fucus at Finngrunden, Bothnian Sea

13. Presence of fish Stensnultra cvROC=0,843 ROC=0,889 cvCOR=0,63 COR=0,682 VindVal Fisk GIS

14. Probability of Blue mussel Foto Vattenkikaren

15. Cover of Fucus vesiculosus (Foto H. Kautsky)

16. Zoarces viviparus CPU

17. Predator fish, biomass Forsmark area, Bothnian Sea (SKB)

18. Probability of Nephrops burrows (BALANCE) Spearman Corr 0.659

20. Why EUNIS? -HELCOM Ministerial Meeting 2007 – BSAP, Baltic marine habitat classification system by 2011 -EUNIS - EU Classification system, which also Russia is interested in -HELCOM Habitat Red List, BALANCE Marine Landscapes, Natura2000 habitats -National classifications (Eg. Baltic countries, Germany)

21. This initiative – to get the process started -Swedish Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA) -Working group: AquaBiota Water Research (Sweden), Alleco (Finland), Stockholm University (Sweden) -David Connor, JNCC (UK) -Workshop in Stockholm Mars 2007 with participants from Lithuania, Estonia, UK, Germany, Netherlands, Finland, Sweden

22. Top-down / Bottom-up -Biological relevance -Which parameters structure the biota? -Which biological assemblages occur? -Statistical analyses -System hierarchy -Comparable to other systems? -GIS layers available? -Manageable complexity? -Relevant for management? -BalMar – classification tool

23. Analyses aims -Describe species associations in Baltic phytobenthic communities -Test which environmental factors are important to explain these associations

24. Data ->300 diving transects from Swedish and Finnish coasts, >3200 data points -Cover of macroalgae, plants and sessile animals (common species) -Depth, substrate, wave exposure, salinity Analyses -Cluster and nMDS (species associations) -CCA (species-environment correlations)

25. Species associations

26. Species-environment correlation Depth ”Salinity” % hard substrate

27. MVS for identification of categories Depth<0.6 Depth<1.5Depth>1.5 Depth>0.6Depth<7.3Depth>7.3 n=234 Cla glo n=274 Fuc ves n=1173 Myt edu Fur lum Cer ten n=517 Myt edu Sph arc Rho con Multivariate regression tree (MRT)

28. EUNIS Suggestion on how to include Baltic

29. BalMar -Classification software using EUNIS criteria -Suggests habitat classes biological field data -Using dominant species for classifications, this method should be evaluated -When the method is agreed upon, data sets are classified rapidly

30. Discussion -Data not representing the whole Baltic

31. Conclusions -All 4 factors relevant, more data for class limits -Only phytobenthic data so far, need for deeper and more sheltered habitats, sediment -Acceptable EUNIS hierarchy -Need for better GIS layers - sediment, wave exposure whole Baltic, bathymetry, salinity

32. Next steps -Invite all Baltic nations, with data and participation in the process -A few workshops -Habitat descriptions, harmonisation between countries, conversion tables -Continuation of small group work -Funding for the continuation -Ready by 2011!

33. Examples on species distributions in relation to wave exposure

34. Sites for Biological exposure index (BEI)

35. BioEx R 2 = 39.6 STWAVE R 2 = 36.2 SWM R 2 = 55.2 FWM R 2 = 48.9 Wave models vs. Biological exposure index (BEI)

36. Utsjöbanks inventering 2 2008-09 Ca 20 bankar Kummelbank Grisbådarna Hanöbanken Klippbanken Märketskallen Grundskallegrunden Argos yttergrund Finngrunden västra banken Sylen Eystrasaltbanken Norra/Södra Långrogrundet Vernersgrund Sydostbrotten Falkens grund Svenska Björn Utklippan Ursulas grund Campsgrund Klintgrund