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UNIT 5: PROBABILITY Basic Probability
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Sample Space Set of all possible outcomes for a chance experiment. Example: Rolling a Die
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Probability Model It is a description of some chance process that consists of two parts A sample space (S) A probability for each outcome
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Tree Diagram A technique for listing the outcomes in a sample space. It contains branches showing what can happen on different trials.
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Draw diagram of all possibilities of test performance on three True/False questions.
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Draw the tree diagram for winning the best 2 out of 3 games.
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Imagine rolling two fair, six-sided dice – one that is red and one that is green. Give a probability model for this chance process.
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Event It is a subset of the sample space. It is usually designated by capital letters, like A, B, C, and so on.
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Consider flipping 2 coins A = both tails B = at least one head Find P(A)P(B)
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Basic Rules of Probability – (don’t write yet)
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Complement
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Mutually Exclusive (Disjoint) Two events are mutually exclusive (disjoint) if they have no outcomes in common and so can never occur together.
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Basic Probability Rules
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Find the probability: Rolling a 5 Choosing a girl in this class Drawing a king
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Two marbles are pulled from a bag holding one red, one white, one blue, and two green marbles. A={the blue marble is drawn} B={a green marble is drawn}
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Distance learning courses are rapidly gaining popularity among college students. Randomly select an undergraduate student who is taking a distance-learning course for credit, and record the student’s age. Here is the probability model. Show that this is a legitimate probability model. Find the probability that the chosen student is not in the traditional college age group (18 to 23). Age Group (Yr):18 to 2324 to 2930 to 3940 or over Probability:0.570.170.140.12
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Choose an American adult at random. Define two events: A = the person has a cholesterol level of 240 mg per deciliter of blood (mg/dl) or above (high cholesterol). B = the person has a cholesterol level of 200 to 239 mg/dl (bordering high cholesterol) According to the American Heart Association, P(A) = 0.16 and the P(B) = 0.29. Explain why events A and B are mutually exclusive. What is P(A and B)? What is P(A or B)? If C is the event that ther person chosen has normal cholesterol (below 200 mg/dl), what is P(C)?
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Homework
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